Daryl Hobbs, Director Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri oseda.missouri

1. Association of Extension Administrators1890 Extension System-Wide ConferenceAtlanta Airport MarriottJune 22-26, 2003Concurrent Workshop: Environmental Scanning/Futuring Daryl Hobbs, Director Office of Social and Economic Data Analysis (OSEDA) University of Missouri www.oseda.missouri.edu

2. Extension and Environmental Change Extension Programs Did Extension programs match? Did we keep up? Have we changed at the same rate as clientele? Environment - Clientele 1890- What/who were 1960 the clientele? What did they do? Where did they live? 1960- What happened 1990 to our clientele? 1990- Do we know how 2003 our clientele has changed?

3. Where do we go for information about our clientele? • What do we do to keep up with our clientele? • Do we know who our clientele is? • Do they need us? Why? Do we make a difference? • Are these important questions?

4. Futuring is very challenging and hard work!

5. Conceptually, it is often difficult for professionals to distinguish between the processes and purposes of futuring and those of strategic planning

6. It is the process of scenario building--planning and thinking--which forms the foundation for futuring and differentiates futuring from strategic planning

7. The end result of futuring is not development of an accurate picture of tomorrow but creating the conditions for better decisions about the future

8. Futuring necessarily involves both the world of facts and the world of perceptions

9. Everyone in the organization must have the capability to make better and more adaptable decisions about the future

10. Extension is too often internally focused and fails to anticipate and take into account changes in… • • Population• Age demographics • Composition and production of agriculture • Sources of income • Location and type of employment • Well-being of families and children, etc.

11. Extension finds it hard to get outside its boxes. This “inside-the-box” view often results in an “official future”, based on the idea that “things will work out OK tomorrow”, because tomorrow will basically continue the experience of today.

12. Extension has a lot of data and tends to use it! But data are generally “facts”, which do not become useful until those facts fit into the environment in which people live, work and make decisions

13. When facts (or data) fit and make sense in the decision-making environment, they become “information”. When facts become information, they help us understand!

14. There is no “right way” to do futuring; it’s an ongoing process of discovery, testing, raising questions and co-learning

15. Without interpretation, data alone have little value for futuring

16. Futuring must be an ongoing function -- institutionalized within the organization. Futuring cannot be assigned to a traditional “committee”, if it is to become part of ongoing thinking and planning.

17. Futuring involves development of an organizational capacity for change. Rather than change being perceived as unusual, occasional or episodic, it is learning how to live with innovation and change as constants.

18. Learning how to live with innovation and change as a constant will require a high degree of shared world view and mutual commitment to change

19. Becoming a futuring organization means that Extension will become a different kind of organization than it is now. It will make decisions about what changes are necessary in order to become different and sustain that difference.

20. Futuring is a process especially appropriate for an organization like Extension because Extension includes both organization members and the publics it serves

21. It is the improvement of decision-making at all levels of the organization that will be the expected benefit from becoming a futuring organization

22. LeadershipBecoming a futuring organization will require leadership at all levels. Leadership will be vital at all levels and at different stages of the futuring process.

23. Scenario Building Teams should include persons appointed because they share some of the following characteristics: • An ability to think outside the confines of single • disciplines • An ability to sustain strategic conversations • An appreciation of co-learning and participatory research • A proactive, visionary perspective • Respect of peers for their judgment and their credibility • Willingness to express ideas and thoughts openly

24. Features of Futuring and Scenario Building Teams • Members should be given time in their daily professional • schedule to devote to scenario building as needed • Teams represent different disciplines and interests • Futuring teams should include members from totally outside • Extension • Composition of the futuring team should change as the • problem/issue/assets being “futured” changes

25. Asset Mapping should be a part of • environmental scanning/monitoring • That shifts the frame of reference from the • dependence generated from expert • knowledge to co-learning. • It opens the door for innovation and • discovery Environmental Scanning/Monitoring:Emerging Issues

26. Training in scenario building should be • acquired from doing scenario building • An emphasis will be placed on co-learning • Co-learning is a product of a university- • community partnership • Co-learning focuses as well on recognition of • deeply embedded assumptions that may limit • what is learned Training

27. An important product of co-learning has been • described as “sensemaking” a product more • concerned with plausibility than accuracy • Co-learning involves acquisition of an ability to • become a deliberative practitioner. Being a • deliberative practitioner rather than an expert requires • an attitude of open-mindedness, acceptance of • uncertainty, lack of control and willingness to move • beyond familiar categories to come to know the • decision environment in process Training as Co-Learning