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Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions.

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Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions.

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    1. Human history has been marked by well-known disasters of unbelievable proportions.

    2. Black Plague: 40 Million

    3. World War I: 20 Million

    4. World War II: 40 Million

    5. 50 Million

    6. 1918 Pandemic Influenza Killed more than WWI Ended the war Killed up to 20% of those infected (2.5% in the US) Compared to 0.1% for seasonal flu No History Lesson Today

    7. Bird Flu Not that again New warning every year

    8. Why you should care 1918-like pan flu like will kill at least 60 million people Hardest hit will be college-aged people US/Whitman has no real plan It WILL happen You need a plan

    9. Your Age is the Worst Most sickness kills the old and the very young Pandemic Influenza kills the healthiest and strongest people Currently bird flu kills 50% of infectedall young and healthy

    10. Cytokine Storm Immune System fights infection, healthier=stronger Pan Flu: response is too strong Shred lung tissue Burst alveoli (sacs to get O2) Lungs fill with blood and other fluids Cannot inhale or acquire oxygen Turn blue, pass out Drown in your own fluids The healthier you are, the worse

    11. US Cannot be Prepared We run emergency rooms at capacity today, we have no surge capacity One way to survive cytokine storm Ventilator 100,000 ventilators in the US At least 5% will need them Enough for 0.6% of those who need them No ventilator? Death Lasting neurological disorders

    12. No Infrastructure Interstate travel will be shut down (DOH plan) Ports will be shut down That means: No food delivery 1.5 day stock at stores No imports No flights Crashing economy

    13. Absenteeism Up to 50% of people will not go to work due to sickness, care or fear No electricity No water No internet No phone No medical staff No clean laundry No infectious material disposal

    14. No Drugs to Help Antiviral have minimal, if any, effect Bird flu already shows resistance Pan flus evolve resistance very fast Even if they work, there will be enough for 10%, tops Were in essentially the same position as 1918

    15. Time Contagious for 3-5 days before symptoms Modern travel means it will spread fast Most likely port of entry? Sea-Tac, LA or Vancouver (Near us)

    16. Whitmans Plan? Right now? Limit liability Send students home Lessons from 1918: travel=worst option Does that help you? How will you get home? Where will you go? What will you do?

    17. You Need a Plan Doesnt need to be complicated Get somewhere safe fast Isolation The ONLY method proved effective in 1918 Have a supply of food and water

    18. Little to no disagreement in the medical community Comes in regular intervals, were overdue for 1918-style Were more vulnerable than ever World is unprepared, you cant expect help from anyone You need a simple get-safe plan

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