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St. Cloud State Storm Chase Club

St. Cloud State Storm Chase Club. Membership Orientation and Meeting 1. What is the SCSU Storm Chase Club?. -The SCSU Storm Chase club is an officially recognized organization promoting storm chasing in a safe and professional manner.

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St. Cloud State Storm Chase Club

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  1. St. Cloud State Storm Chase Club Membership Orientation and Meeting 1

  2. What is the SCSU Storm Chase Club? -The SCSU Storm Chase club is an officially recognized organization promoting storm chasing in a safe and professional manner. -The SCC Also strives to educate members so that they may be able to go chasing on their own and have a greater appreciation for severe weather

  3. Who are the SCC officers? Michael Stanga, President Brandon Bigelbach, Vice President Michael Hollan, Secretary/Treasurer

  4. What is required to Join the SCC? Membership Form Dues $20 per year (helps fund our picnic and fund group activities)

  5. Where is the SCC Website? Facebook : http://www.facebook.com/stormchase Official SCSU Page http://studentorg.stcloudstate.edu/stormchase/

  6. Resources of Best Use for Storm Chasing Storm Chasing Handbook – Tim Vasquez

  7. We Encourage Members To.. Download and buy GRlevel3 available at www.grlevelx.com As we will be focusing on this program a lot this year!

  8. 20/10 for 2010! New for 2009-2010 20/10 for 2010 is a new initiative that pays YOU to go storm chasing! For every car of people (3 people min) 20 dollars will be given to offset the cost of chasing for those people. For the person who provides the vehicle they will get an extra $10.

  9. Club Goals For 2009-2010 (more to be added!) -Severe Storms and Doppler Radar Conference in Des Moines, IA on March 25-27 2010 (you can officially get out of class since it is a university sponsored activity) -Weekend Chase to NE/KS/OK/TX in Spring, Date: TBD -Spring Picnic to Celebrate end of the Year, April 2010 -Local Chasing (MN, WI, IA, SD, ND) For Fall 2009 and 2010

  10. SCSU Storm Chase ClubMeeting 1Communication, Equipment and 9/8/09 Chase Activation

  11. Communication • Communication is the core of our club • If communication between officers and members is non-existant, we become an ineffective organization • We find many ways to communicate with members about meetings and chase opportunities

  12. Club to Member Communication • Email • Text Messaging • Facebook Messages These are our official means of communication!

  13. Communication while Storm Chasing • HAM Radio • Cell Phones -GSM - T-mobile, ATT -CDMA - Sprint, Alltel, Verizon If it has a SIM card, it is GSM, if not it is CDMA (Nextel is special and has its own network neither CDMA or GSM) • Walkie Talkies

  14. HAM radio • HAM radio operators take a test to obtained a lifetime license. This allows a person to buy a HAM radio and transmit on its frequencies. These radios can have a range of up to 30+miles depending on power and frequency used and are a standard for reporting severe weather and listening for reports 5-10 minutes before they hit the regular broadcast outlets • So what? • 5 – 10 minutes can mean the difference between wasting time driving through flooded roads in a small town or seeing a tornado because you went around the damage

  15. HAM Radio transciever

  16. Cell Phones • Cell phone coverage has increased rapidly • GSM/CDMA – whats the big deal? • Currently CDMA offers faster internet than any GSM in chase territory and urban settings until the next generation technology emerges. • 1xRTT vs EVDO vs GPRS vs EDGE 1xRTT – about twice as fast as dial up internet EVDO -about as fast as a cable modem (700-2000k) GPRS – about as fast as 1xRTT EDGE – About 300k down (2x GPRS or same as 1xRTT) When using the internet in a mobile setting, EVDO has the most rural and city towers on the Sprint network.

  17. Walkie Talkies • None long range • Anyone can listen and you can have non chasers listening to where you are, and potentially invite curious bystanders to your position Free use, no minutes or messages to use them

  18. Cameras/Video Cameras • DSLR • Point and Shoot • The $5 disposable model

  19. DSLRDigital Single Lens ReflexNikon and Canon make Best DSLR’sProfessional Grade photosMost Expensive

  20. Point and Shoot • Mostly Affordable • Ones with Large Optical Zoom (minimum 3x optical) are best • 5MP (megapixels and higher) are best for reproducing images

  21. $5 film camera • Not recommended • Poor image reproduction • Hard to manage pictures • Cost money to develop film • Do not use these 

  22. GPS • USB GPS are the best to use, bundled with Microsoft Streets and Trips 200X • Handheld GPS’s not recommended (hard to read) these can be connected to a computer, however are more difficult to do so

  23. Cell Phone Amplifier • Amplifies CDMA and GSM signals • Although cell phone service is improving, this insures a near full signal even in dead zones

  24. GRlevel3 • Radar Interpretation Program • Trial download is free to use for 14 days • Will discuss this program in depth next meeting

  25. Other Gear • http://www.thewxpage.com/stormchasingequipmentsetup.html

  26. A Sample Chase Activation 9/7-9/8/09(All Abbreviations will be discussed in next few meetings)

  27. 9/7/09 • 8:00PM – Alerted to new day 2 outlook mentioning a slight risk of storms by the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) • 8:30PM – Updated Facebook Status Indicating Possibility of Storm Chasing on 9/8/09 • 9:00PM (appx.) Sent Facebook Message to Current Members • 9:12PM – Sent Text Messages to Members with Texting Enabled • (ongoing) Discussed equipment and vehicle volunteers with various members on the facebook wall, chat and private messages • Did NOT send email due to facebook feedback from members. • 10:00PM – Alerted that 0Z (7PM) WRF and NAM models had been updated to show a potential for storm around Fargo, ND according to the WRF convective precip model valid for 7PM 9/8/09. Also noted substantial CAPE (upwards of 3000 j/kg) and CAP erosion. Decided that this was worthy to keep the chase potential for tomorrow until the new SPC day 2 update at 1AM

  28. 9/8/09 • 1:15AM (appx.) – New SPC update shows the slight risk potential and the potential for damaging winds and hail with storm that would develop along the cold front. Discussion shows that upper air support was behind the front but storm could still be able to fire in warm sector if destabilization could occur • 8:23AM – New Day 1 Outlook shows continued support for a Slight risk of severe weather west of STC. Confidence in the event by the SCC forecaster (Michael Stanga in this example) is waning due to ongoing morning convective and cloud cover in forecast area • 8:30-11:45AM (appx.) discussed with members on facebook chat and SCC officers/forecasters regarding the lowering potential for chase. Noted that ongoing precip. and warm air advection was holding up the clearing and that destabilization was looking to be poor. Sunset is at 7:45PM and that would give about 3 hours to get into potential position if chase was to happen. • 11:42AM – New Day 1 outlook from SPC confirms the SCC position by eliminating ND out of the outlook area and adding a 30% Hail outlook to central NE/KS. Chase is Called Off due to lack of severe storm potential by SCC and SPC along with too far of distance to intercept storms, target updated to Aberdeen, SD for “armchair” chasing • 2:28PM- New Day 1 outlook 20Z from SPC. This update reconfirms the 1630Z update on the decreasing potential for severe storms in ND and MN. • 2:32- MD issued for Central SD indicating a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was likely. • 255PM – Severe Thunderstorm Watch #737 Issued for SD/NE/WY and CO • 3:45PM – Storm Erupt along cold front west of Aberdeen, SD. Hail reports accompany storms.

  29. Initial Day 2 SPC outlook upgrade-1730Z 9/7

  30. Day 2 outlook Text • ...NORTHERN PLAINS... STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ARE PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IN AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED LAYER CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. DESTABILIZATION...COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY 08/21Z...WITH INCREASING CONVECTION THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY REMAIN RATHER WEAK...SHEAR/MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST--ON THE ORDER OF 30+ KT AT 850 MB--SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY ...WHICH MAY BE SLOWEST TO DIMINISH IN THE PRESENCE OF BETTER INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY EVENING.

  31. MD/WATCH/OTLK from 9/8/09-13Z

  32. 1300Z text • ...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MT THIS MORNING WILL ROTATE EWD/NEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AROUND THE SERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER-SCALE CLOSED LOW NOW OVER NRN ALBERTA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND ERN ND TODAY...AND ERN SD/NW MN LATE TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS SWD ACROSS WRN NEB LATE TODAY AND NE CO/NW KS TONIGHT. A LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND AN ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER WILL MOVE NEWD OVER NE ND AND NW MN THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT RESIDUAL CLOUDS WITH THE ONGOING ND STORMS...AS WELL AS OTHER WAA STORMS OVER NE SD/SE ND...COULD INTERFERE WITH SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION TODAY INVOF OF FAR NW MN AND EXTREME E CENTRAL ND. THE POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION IS GREATER FARTHER TO THE S ACROSS SD/NEB WHERE A BELT OF LOW-MID 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IS LOCATED E OF THE COLD FRONT...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE FRONT WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...GIVEN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

  33. MD/WATCH/OTLK from 9/8/09-1630Z

  34. 1630Z text • CNTRL/NRN PLNS THIS AFTN/TONIGHT... PRESSURE RISES NOW OVER THE NRN HI PLNS SHOULD KEEP COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MT IMPULSE MOVING STEADILY E ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY...AND INTO ERN SD/NW MN TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ALSO PROGRESS SE ACROSS WRN NEB/NE CO/NW KS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT... PRECEDED BY A LEE TROUGH. CLOUDS/LOW LVL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT QLCS LIKELY WILL HINDER LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION OVER ERN ND AND WRN MN TODAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER S OVER SD/NEB ...WHERE STG HEATING AND LOW-MID 60S SFC DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST BENEATH EML. COMBINATION OF HEATING AND ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT/ TROUGH SHOULD REMOVE CIN TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTN...WITH A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS LIKELY ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT EVE. ORIENTATION OF FRONT WITH RESPECT TO UPR JET WILL KEEP STRONGER FLOW ALOFT N AND W OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THAT PORTION OF WARM SECTOR LIKELY TO UNDERGO GREATEST DESTABILIZATION. NEVERTHELESS... SUFFICIENT...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS SBCAPE APPROACHES 2000-2500 J/KG. THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS WILL BE ISOLD DMGG WIND AND HAIL THIS AFTN INTO AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT.

  35. MD/WATCH/OTLK from 9/8/09-20Z

  36. MD/WATCH from 9/8/09

  37. MD/WATCH from 9/8/09

  38. 9/8/09 Chase Potential • This is a textbook example of communication and forecasting in a short term chase environment • Most chases will involve actually chasing  with more lead time with forecast • Why was there short lead time? Lack of Weather model confidence and SPC confidence to back up SCC forecasting to warrant a further increase in lead time for event

  39. Next Meeting/Ending Notes • Don’t Worry about Understanding Everything in Today’s Meeting!  • SPC products (in depth review of aforementioned abbreviations) • Online resources/Personal websites • Reading Weather maps and an introduction into GRLevel3/Placefiles

  40. One Last Item! Time to VOTE for the Day and Time for the SCC Meetings! • 5PM on Wednesdays • 4PM on Wednesdays • 7PM on Wednesdays • 5PM on Tuesdays___

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