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2005 Annual Model Assessment

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2005 Annual Model Assessment

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  1. 2005 Annual Model Assessment Jeffrey S. Sweeney University of Maryland Chesapeake Bay Program Office jsweeney@chesapeakebay.net 410-267-9844 Tributary Strategy Workgroup Meeting Chesapeake Bay Program Office October 2, 2006

  2. Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Jurisdiction Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year 337.5 277.7 275.1 270.2 265.3 183.1

  3. Nitrogen Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By SourcePoint source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year 337.5 277.7 275.1 270.2 265.3 183.1

  4. 2005 Annual Model Assessment • Point Sources • Point source discharges have only been updated for MD, VA and DC. • Point source discharges for NY, PA, WV, and DE will be revised within the next two weeks. • Landuses and Animals • Trends in landuses and animals are interpolations of Phase 4.3 2000 and 2010 (Tributary Strategy) base conditions. • Conservation-Tillage • Mostly using 1998 CTIC (Conservation Technology Information Center) Crop Residue Management data. • 2002 updates for MD . . . and WV. • Hope to obtain 2002 and 2004 for all jurisdictions but not before 2005 annual model assessment is final.

  5. 2005 Annual Model Assessment • Poultry Phytase • All jurisdictions given credit for “16%” reduction from pre-phytase condition for layers, broilers, and turkeys. • Beyond “16%” requires data from jurisdictions. • Poultry Litter Transport • MD transporting to PA, DE, VA, within state, and out of CB watershed. • WV transporting within state and out of CB watershed. • DE transporting to PA, MD, VA, within state, and out of CB watershed. • All states transporting within state = within model segment. • Atmospheric Deposition • All jurisdictions credited with lower atmospheric deposition of nitrogen as assessed through trends in monitoring data used in calibration of the Phase 5 Watershed Model. • Benefits of NOx SIP Call and other air programs. • TSWG Decision – Is deposition reduction correct or defensible?

  6. Historic and Projected Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed and Tidal Waters Monitored Modeled CAIR+CAMR+BART

  7. Historic and Projected Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Monitored Modeled • Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System) • Provides estimates of N deposition resulting from changes in precursor emissions from utility, mobile, and industrial sources due to management actions or growth. • Adjusts deposition determined by wet-fall concentration model and precipitation volumes • Predicts the influence of source loads from one region on deposition in other regions. • Provides estimates of wet:dry for NO3- and NH4-. NADP/NTN + Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network (AirMoN)

  8. Historic Atmospheric Deposition to the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Monitored Nitrate ion wet deposition, 2004 Mean annual (1985-2001) Apply daily NH4+ and NO3- concentration model results to daily precipitation from a high resolution hourly precipitation model developed by the USGS for river modeling segment in the CB watershed.

  9. Before and After Implementation of Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990Mean Annual Wet Deposition of Nitrate Before: 1983-1994 After: 1995-2004

  10. Response in Chesapeake Bay Loads to Changes in Atmospheric Deposition

  11. Sources of Nitrogen Loads to the Chesapeake Bay 2004 (291 million lbs./year) • Primary Sources of Atmospheric Deposition • Vehicles and mobile sources • Electric utilities, industry & stationary sources • Livestock & fertilized soil emissions • Lightning & forest soils • Sources of nitrogen loads from land areas are based on the relative inputs of natural and anthropogenic sources. • Point source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year. • All inputs and outputs assessed for and by the Chesapeake Bay Program Phase 4.3 Watershed Model.

  12. Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By JurisdictionPoint source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year 27.13 19.49 19.31 18.75 18.41 12.78

  13. Phosphorus Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By SourcePoint source loads reflect measured discharges while nonpoint source loads are based on an average-hydrology year 27.13 19.49 19.31 18.75 18.41 12.78

  14. Sediment Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Jurisdiction 5.834 5.048 5.004 4.922 4.870 4.147

  15. Sediment Loads Delivered to the Chesapeake Bay By Source 5.834 5.048 5.004 4.922 4.870 4.147

  16. 2005 Annual Model Assessment • All recommended changes to the 9/14/06 draft 2005 annual model assessment are due to the CBP office Tuesday 10/10/06.