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Six Steps of Analysis:

Wolfgang Merkel WZB & Humboldt-University Berlin Against all theory: the rapid consolidation of democracy in Eastern Europe Bratislava 3/3/2008 EXU Execelentná Univerzita. Six Steps of Analysis:. The dilemma of simultaneity What does democratic consolidation mean?

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Six Steps of Analysis:

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  1. Wolfgang MerkelWZB & Humboldt-University BerlinAgainst all theory: the rapid consolidation of democracy in Eastern EuropeBratislava 3/3/2008EXU Execelentná Univerzita

  2. Six Steps of Analysis: • The dilemma of simultaneity • What does democratic consolidation mean? • Are the East-European democracies consolidated? • Which quality do the democracies have? • Is the predictoral weakness due to a weakness of theory? • What is the future of democracy in Eastern Europe?

  3. The Dilemma of Simultaneity • Categorical difference of EE-transformation • Double or triple transformation • Each transformation has ist own logic, but • The 3 transformations are interdependent • Mutually obstructive effects • EE-ransformation more dfficult than other T. • Early consolidation cannot be expected

  4. Four Levels of Democratic Consolidation:

  5. Constitutional Consolidation

  6. Representative Consolidation

  7. BehaviouralConsolidation (Veto Players)

  8. Consolidation of Civic Culture

  9. Democratic Consolidation

  10. Democratic Consolidation (sub-regional)

  11. Comparison: Eastern Europe and all BTI-countries

  12. Social and Economic Requisites Civil society Stateness Civil rights Political liberties C B Electoral regime A D E Horizontal Effective power Civil Liberties accountability to rule

  13. Political Regimes in East-Central / Southeastern Europe and CIS (Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova) Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2006) Notes: The classification is based on the index „Democracy“; „10“ is the best and „1“ the worst possible rating in this index.

  14. Ranking and Rating of BTI 2008„Eastern Europe“ (1)

  15. Ranking and Rating of BTI 2008„Eastern Europe“ (2) Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung (2008): Internet: http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/37.0.html?&L=0%22; http://www.bertelsmann-transformation-index.de/33.0.html?&L= (accessed 29 Feb 2008)

  16. Poverty of (Action)Theory • Action theories alone cannot explain DC • 3 addit. structural explanatory elements: • Modernity: education, low inequality, civil soc. • Stateness: positive legacy • External actors: EU as consolidator

  17. Theoretical Message • Structural theory emphasizing changing structures of power and stateness • Modernization theory emphasizing social and economic requisites either associated with or necessary for successful democratization • Actors-centered approaches emphasizing political processes and elite initiatives and choices that account for successful democratization • Specific combination of the 3 approaches

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