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Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°° ° Warsaw School of Economics

Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household composition Scenarios for Belgium. Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°° ° Warsaw School of Economics °° University of Louvain (UCL). Objectives.

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Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°° ° Warsaw School of Economics

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  1. Projections of the dependent elderly population by age, sex, and household compositionScenarios for Belgium Anita Abramowska°, Catherine Gourbin°°, and Guillaume Wunsch°° ° Warsaw School of Economics °° University of Louvain (UCL)

  2. Objectives • Projection of the dependent elderly population 65+ for Belgium • By age, sex, and composition of household • For the period 2005-2050 • Taking account of differences in rates of dependency by household type, age, and sex • And of possible future declines in these rates

  3. Data and methods • Population projections: those of the Belgian National Institute of Statistics • Composition of household: • National population register data • Data on institutions from Belgian national health insurance (INAMI-RIZIV) • Dependency rates and time trends by age, sex and composition of households: French HID survey

  4. Table 1. Comparison of the institutionalized population 65+ by age and sex according to INAMI-RIZIV (2001) and the Belgian population register (2000) (Source: INAMI-RIZIV and Belgian population register)

  5. Table 2. Comparison of dependency rates (%) in the institutionalized population age and sex according to the French HID survey (EHPA 11-22 scale) and the Belgian INAMI-RIZIV register (Katz scale, B+C) (circa year 2000) (Sources: DREES and INAMI-RIZIV)

  6. Annex Ia. HID dependency rates by age, household type, EHPA 11-22 scale, males

  7. Annex Ib. HID dependency rates by age, household type, EHPA 11-22 scale, females

  8. Fig 1a. Adjusted dependency rates by age, sex, and household type - Males.

  9. Fig. 1b. Adjusted dependency rates by age, sex, and household type - Females

  10. Trends in dependency rates • French HID central scenario by age and sex: rates shifted every 10 years by -1.3 years for males and -1.4 years for females between ages 60 and 79, and by -1.1 and -1.3 respectively for ages 80+. • Same trends whatever the household type

  11. Fig. 2. Numbers of dependent elderly 65+ by sex, scenarios with stable and variable rates - Belgium

  12. Fig. 3a. Elderly females 65+ by age, household type and years (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.

  13. Fig. 3b. Elderly males 65+ by age, household type and years (2005, 2025, 2050), variable rates – Belgium.

  14. Improving the projections • A better registration of collective households by the national population register • Use of the new 2004 Health Survey dependency rates • Obtaining time trends (age, sex, household type) • Projecting future composition of households • Shifting from prevalence to incidence rates

  15. Results • Great differences in dependency rates by household type (HID survey) • An increase in the absolute numbers of dependent persons • A much slower increase if declining dependency rates but an increase nevertheless • A significant increase in the institutionalized population

  16. Conclusion • One can expect a significant increase in the absolute numbers of institutionalized population especially at older ages, for males and for females, due to the aging of the population structure on the one hand, and the increase in dependency with age on the other hand. • It might happen however that in the future, both the age schedule of dependency and the time-trend in dependency will become more favorable than now. In that case, our projections will hopefully be wrong.

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