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THE FOURTH TURNING

THE FOURTH TURNING. An American Prophecy William Strauss Neil Howe 1997. WHAT IS A TURNING?. A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL TIME COVERING 80-100 YEARS (A SAECULUM ) ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS. WHAT IS A “TURNING”?.

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THE FOURTH TURNING

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  1. THE FOURTH TURNING An American Prophecy William Strauss Neil Howe 1997

  2. WHAT IS A TURNING? A FOUR CYCLE PHASE OF HISTORICAL TIME COVERING 80-100 YEARS (A SAECULUM) ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A FULL HUMAN LIFE INCLUDING FOUR GENERATIONS

  3. WHAT IS A “TURNING”? CHARACTERIZED BY SUCCEEDING “SEASONS” 1. GROWTH AND STRENGTH (HIGH) 2. AWAKENING AND MATURATION 3. ENTROPY AND UNRAVELING 4. CRISIS AND DESTRUCTION

  4. WHAT IS A “TURNING”? GENERATIONS SHAPED BY SEASON OF BIRTH • Prophet generation born during HIGH • Nomad generation born during AWAKENING • Hero generation born during UNRAVELING • Artist generation born during CRISIS

  5. WHAT IS A “SAECULUM”? • ANCIENT ETRUSCAN (BellaToscana!) TERM • ADOPTED BY THE ROMANS • A FULL FOUR PHASE HUMAN LIFE • Childhood (Spring) • Rising Adult (Summer) • Middle Age (Fall) • Elder (Winter) • HENCE “AN AGE” – History in your bones!

  6. HISTORIOGRAPHICAL INTERLUDE HOW SHALL WE THINK ABOUT TIME? CIRCLE o LINE SPIRAL

  7. “Turnings” of the “War Cycle” Overture: Italian Wars (1491-1525) 1st Cycle:(Phillip II Imperial Wars (1568-1609) 2nd Cycle: War of Sp. Succession(1672-1713) 3rd Cycle: French Rev./Napoleonic(1792-1815) 4th Cycle: WWI-WWII (1914-1945)

  8. AWAKENING CYCLE Protestant Reformation (1530s-1540s) Puritan Awakening (1630s-1640s) Pietist Awakening (1740s-1750s) Evangelical-Utopian Awakening (1830s-40s) New Age Awakening (1960s-1970s)

  9. Modern American Life Cycle Childhood: 0-20 --receiving, acquiring Young Adult (21-41) –serving, testing Midlife (42-62) power; managing, applying Elderhood (63-83) leadership; transferring Late Elder (84+) dependence; remembering

  10. Generations and WWIIBirth Years PROGRESSIVE 1843-1859 W. Wilson MISSIONARY 1860-1882 FDR LOST 1883-1900 Eisenhower G.I. 1901-1924 JFK SILENT 1925-1942 M. DUKAKIS BOOM 1943-1960 BILL CLINTON 13TH/XER 1961-1981 TOM CRUISE MILLENNIAL 1982-2002 CLASS 2000

  11. GENERATIONS COMING OF AGE PROGRESSIVE: 1876 Edison, Westinghouse MISSIONARY: 1896 Populism Wm J. Bryan MISSIONARY:1918 Doughboys; Paris G.I.: 1935 CCC/WPA SILENT: 1954 McCarthy/ Cold War BOOMERS: 1969 Woodstock 13th/Xer: 1992 Media Discover Xers MILLENNIAL 2001 9/11?__________

  12. GENERATIONS AND ARCHETYPES PrometheusDionysusApolloEpimetheus Spring Summer Fall Winter Traditional Agnostic Dogmatic Innovative Reason Intuition Feeling Sensation NT SP NF SJ Hero Artist Prophet Nomad G.I. Silent Boom 13th/Xer

  13. WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?

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