Scenarios

1. Mid-Semester Review November 1, 2007 Scenarios

2. Outline • Introduction to our scenario work • What are our scenarios? • Economic Development • Energy • Transportation • Housing • Question and Answer

3. Introduction • We investigated opportunities, constraints, and new policies that could change the landscape of Albacete. • The basis for our scenarios were discussions with locally-knowledgeable experts about potential policy options. Back at MIT, we attempted to map the spatial aspects or implications of these policies. • After we finish our presentation, we are going to ask for your comments on these initial scenarios.

4. Energy Scenario Albacete should implement new and different clean energy technology and integrate new energy sources in development.

5. Key Issues • Wind/solar plants are often sited far from usage centers because of cheaper land, requiring more transmission infrastructure. • Adding more wind or large solar projects requires new transmission lines and reinforcing existing lines so as to minimize transmission loss • Biofuels

6. Best Practices • Beddington Zero Energy Development in Wallington, Surrey, UK • All buildings have solar panels and “wind catchers” (109kW of PV for 82 units) • 100 unit development is powered by a 130 kW combined hear and power biomass plant • Parking spaces are expensive – community has carpool scheme and plug-in sports for electric cars • Very popular – 700 residents signed up for future zero energy housing • Ecodyfi, Wales, UK • Community-owned and developed renewable energy – 120 kW from hydropower, 75 kW and 340 kW from wind turbines, 40 kW from solar power

7. Policy Options New Technology • Offer incentives to installing clean technology such as 10X market price subsidy for solar power sited within urban areas • Partner with industry to create pilot hydrogen car or fuel cell programs • Incorporate clean energy technology development into future development plans Transmission Technology • Companies benefiting from energy subsidies should build the transmission system. • Government should subsidize construction of sites closer to demand. • The new technology high-speed rail line is a possible path for building new transmission lines.

8. Application to Albacete Albacete can strive to: • Make new developments as green as BedZed, encouraging energy efficient buildings • Building URBAN solar and wind generation • Develop biomass energy and combined heat and power generation • Decrease non-renewable usage by co-firing with biomass • Develop cleaner methods of transportation such as public transit that runs on natural gas or biofuels

9. Potential Solar Sites

10. Potential Transmission Lines

11. Potential Wind Sites

12. Next Steps • Existing transmission • What is the total capacity of existing transmission? • How much capacity can be added without building new transmission? • What types of resources should be interconnected? • Expanding transmission • What types of new lines should be installed? • Where should they be? • What kinds of projects should be interconnected? (wind, solar, biomass) • How much transmission would have to be added for Albacete to meet total consumption using renewable energy?

13. Economic Development Scenario Albacete should incentivize an AVE-focused Business Center in accordance with the transit-oriented development model. (Transit-oriented development focuses new development near the train station.) Train use increases because the municipality uses its strategic location in the center of the route between Madrid and the Coast as an economic development tool.

14. Key Issues • The train station is disconnected from the commercial areas as a result the design is fragmented. • Albacete is not maximizing its industrial potential by producing products such as knives. The city should benefit from the university to increase production of ideas. • Industrial development is not located near the train station, which causes costs to increase and may deter industrial relocation.

15. Application to Albacete Albacete can strive to: • Business activity around the AVE station increases so as to benefit from increased traffic around train station • Design features reflect this increased activity. • Albacete’s industrial production increases in value from knives to higher value goods and services such as technology. • Firms will relocate to be closer to the freight rail station so as to reduce costs.

16. Best Practices • Washington D.C. Metro Area • Incentives are offered to encourage development around the train station. • Zoning is designed so as to increase walkable commercial areas around train stations. • Parking is offered in central areas to bring people downtown but encourage walking after parking. • Shopping areas are very profitable. • Albacete already is a walkable city. Commercial development needs to refocus itself around the train station. Then, Albacete can become a greater regional center for commerce and industry.

17. Next Steps • How feasible is it to develop an AVE-centered business/lifestyle park in Albacete or the logistics center stretching from Albacete to La Roda? • How realistic is the expectation that Albacete can be a regional center for logistics? Can Albacete attract new economic activity based upon its relative strengths? • Can Albacete be a nexus of the movement of goods and services and people from Madrid to the Levante coast, as well as internationally from the Atlantic Coast to the trans-Pyrenees Mountains?

18. Transportation Scenario Build transportation network to support and guide new development.

19. Madrid – Albacete

20. Albacete Context

21. Frankfurt - Stuttgart

22. streetcar U-bahn S-bahn local national rail national rail http://www.ctchouston.org/blogs/christof/2007/05/12/networks-hubs-and-tickets-transit-for-a-multi-centered-city/

23. Greater Toronto

24. “Greater Golden Horsehoe” Toronto Regional Plan • Coordinated by the provincial government • Establishment of greenbelt, with some designated greenfield area growth • At least 40% of growth should occur on existing development by 2015 • Based on where higher-order transit is in place or planned http://www.pir.gov.on.ca/English/growth/index.html

25. Boston Job Sprawl http://www.mi.vt.edu/uploads/Edgeless%20Cities.pdf

26. Boston - Framingham

27. Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and urban development • Curitiba, Brazil • BRT and bus stations, metropolitan coverage • Mixed transit modes within one corridor • - center street with bus lane • - parallel streets for express buses

28. Albacete Transportation • Opportunities • Cultural, historic, and commercial heart of the region. • Town planning traditions – compact housing, mixed use • A set of satellite towns/suburbs • Growth in new global industries – IT, aerospace, education, tourism, finance

29. Designated Density Types • Category 1 – Major Core – 150 DU and 250 jobs per hectare • Category 2 – Linear Corridor – 100 people and 200 jobs per hectare • Category 3 – Satellite Town (New and Old) – 300 people and jobs per hectare • Category 4 – Low Density Community – 40 people and 40 jobs per hectare, • Category 5 – Industrial Communities – 200 jobs and 40 people per hectare

30. Targeting Growth Rules • 80% of new development within 500 meters of a transit stop • 20% of new development within the core of existing cities and towns • Assign growth to the different categories

31. To make this happen • Regional Strategy • Joint Regional Transportation Plan aligned to Economic Development and Urban Growth Targets • Potential Municipal Mechanisms • Overlay Zoning • Maximum parking • Context-sensitive design guidelines • Facilities requirements

32. Next Steps • Estimate Employment • Based on U.S. space per employee by land use type • Could be based on allocating provincial employment statistics to land use areas from parcels database • Determine potential transit alignments • Urban Growth modeling using “Targeted Growth” rules

33. Housing Scenario Build affordable housing within walking distance of public transportation, parks and greenways.

34. Albacete Must Plan for New Immigrants Amount and type determined by national policies and international treaties Top 10 Countries of Origin for Regularization Applications*

35. Regularization Applications Submitted by Autonomous Community * * The 3,541 applications submitted between 9pm and 12am on May 7, 2005 are not includedSource: Ministerio de Trabajo y Asuntos Sociales, Spain http://www.migrationinformation.org/Feature/display.cfm?id=331

36. Existing Parks and Greenways

37. Proximity to parks and greenways 0.5 km Park and Greenway Buffer 1.0 km Park and Greenway Buffer

38. Newly urbanized area

39. Encourage Transit Oriented Development Housing regionally should focus on surrounding train/rail stations Albacete’s current developed area is within 5 km of the Albacete station

40. Current growth is to grow in the Southwestern parts of the cityplan Southwestern vs. Northeastern? • How about the northeastern partthat is within 5km of Albacete Station?

41. Existing compact area • Building heights of 11-16 stories around historic center

42. Urban form begins to deteriorate Go on with the density? – lower densities and less of a streetgrid.

43. General Themes • Encourage new development close to the city center • Encourage walkable communities • Encourage mixed-use development • Scenarios use financial incentives as a policy tool