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Scenarios

Scenarios. Emily McKenzie. 2 April, InVEST Introductory Seminar, Bangkok. Outline. What are scenarios? Why use scenarios? How to develop scenarios? Some examples. Tell Stories, Use Scenarios. Before. Valuation study in Bermuda. After. Total values often less meaningful.

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Scenarios

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  1. Scenarios Emily McKenzie 2 April, InVEST Introductory Seminar, Bangkok

  2. Outline • What are scenarios? • Why use scenarios? • How to develop scenarios? • Some examples

  3. Tell Stories, Use Scenarios

  4. Before Valuation study in Bermuda After

  5. Total values often less meaningful • Bermuda’s reefs worth • $722 million p.a. • 10-17% of GDP But what would be costs and benefits of new shipping channels?

  6. What are scenarios? • Plausible, simplified, descriptions of future • Based on coherent & consistent assumptions: • key drivers • their relationships • their impacts on ecosystems

  7. Why Use Scenarios? Despite their importance, environmental services are not normally included in resource decisions. This is sometimes because it is hard to compare the benefits and costs of different options.

  8. Types of scenarios • Interventions • Designs for policies, plans and projects • Explorations • Possible but unexpected futures • Visions • Perceptions of desirable or undesirable futures • Projections • Depictions of the expected future

  9. Interventions Depictions of how additional, new interventions could be implemented, such as policies, projects or plans.

  10. Explorations • Explore possible future developments. • Anticipate unexpected future circumstances, test how policies cope with change.

  11. Visions & Projections • Visions: Subjective depictions of possible futures that vary according to their desirability. • Projections: Depictions of the expected future, without new interventions

  12. Why use scenarios? • Identify tradeoffs • Consider new policies • ‘Future-proof’ policies • Air conflicts, develop consensus • Learning • Storytelling

  13. Scenarios for InVEST •  Scenarios as maps of land cover and/or coastal and marine habitats and uses. • Scenario maps feed into InVEST to produce maps of ecosystem services for each scenario.

  14. Example from Tanzania Business as Usual Hopeful Expectations – poverty alleviation

  15. Example from Tanzania Carbon storage on the current landscape…

  16. Comparison of carbon storage and sequestration in different scenarios… Conservation 2025 Current BAU 2025 Confidential draft, Feb 2009 Thanks to Dr Ruth Swetnam

  17. 2000 Conservation 2025 BAU 2025 LOSS LOSS 2.419 t/C • 8.65 7t/C • or -3.6% of 2000 value • 31.617 t/C • or - 13% of 2000 value Confidential draft, Feb 2009 Thanks to Dr Ruth Swetnam

  18. Scenario Development Methods • Bringing together multiple methods: • Qualitative: narrative stories of future • Multi-stakeholder community visioning • Hand-drawn maps • Quantitative: numerical estimates of future • Landscape optimization modeling • Computer-based land transition models

  19. Key Elements Drivers • any natural or human-induced factor that directly or indirectly causes a change in an ecosystem Rules • principles or conditions that prescribe how changes will occur in the future Others • Timeframe • Spatial scale & extent

  20. Methods in Tanzania • High stakeholder participation • Multiple stakeholder workshops, interviews • Time: 1 year • Capacity: 2 coordinators • Policy review

  21. Key steps Step 1: Understand scenarios Step 2: Select the right scenario approach Step 3: Develop scenario storylines Step 4: Create scenario maps Step 5: Assess ecosystem service outcomes Step 6: Use and communicate results

  22. Characteristics of effective scenarios • Relevant • Legitimate • Plausible • Understandable • Distinct • Surprising • Scientifically credible • Comprehensive • Iterative • Participatory Photo credit: Josh Goldstein

  23. NatCap scenario tools • Scenario Development Guide • Picking the right scenario • Creating storylines, turning storylines into maps • NatCap case studies • Scenario Generator • Simple, rule-based approach • % change from storylines • InSEAM • Online collaborative map drawing software • IDRISI Land Change Modeler • Around a dozen land cover transitions • Rules and constraints, taking into account historical trends

  24. Sumatra Sumatra Ecosystem Vision (60% more forest than 2008) Government spatial plan Same amount of natural forest as 2008 (but likely worse) Central Sumatra Today

  25. Hawaii

  26. Issues of concern: -Effects of forestry and other industrial activities on aesthetic views -Effects of shellfish harvest and aquaculture on sensitive habitats

  27. Any questions?

  28. Scenario exercise #1 • Select one priority opportunity for InVEST to inform decisions in the GMS. • Which services would you assess? • Describe the scenario storylines you would compare in InVEST.

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