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Uncertain Times for an Uneasy Industry “It is the best of times, …the worst of times…”

Uncertain Times for an Uneasy Industry “It is the best of times, …the worst of times…”. ABA Forum on Air & Space Law January 28, 2009. Uncertain Times. Demand Destruction GDP slide, “opt-out” and modal shift to Business/GA Energy Sensitivity

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Uncertain Times for an Uneasy Industry “It is the best of times, …the worst of times…”

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  1. Uncertain Times for an Uneasy Industry“It is the best of times, …the worst of times…” ABA Forum on Air & Space Law January 28, 2009

  2. Uncertain Times • Demand Destruction • GDP slide, “opt-out” and modal shift to Business/GA • Energy Sensitivity • Price volatility, availability, policy, need for allocations • Environmental Issues • Proactive leader, yet a lightning rod for criticism • Productivity/Social Issues • All time high, not high enough; lack of trust • Pricing Power • Traction, dependent on industry capacity constraint

  3. Uneasy Industry • Volatility – to manage, or not? • Customer targeting – populist, or niche? • Suppliers – “Keep your friends close…” • Product Attributes – full or self-service? • Regulatory – multilateralism, consolidation • Alliances – ATI/JVs all around! then what? • Business Processes – core, slim or ASP? • “Virtual Airline” – Holy Grail .. or too frail?

  4. Darkest Before the Dawn • 1990s/2000s business cycle hangovers • Creeping global recession • Credit market seizure and toxic remainder • Obsolescent fleets, slow liquidation • New technology disappointments

  5. Glimmer on the Horizon • Expanding, insatiable demand for air travel • Emerging economies, logistics, aspirational • Policy introspection and intertwinement • Energy, environmental, transportation, economic • Technology/efficiency investment • Energy supply, aircraft/propulsion efficiency • Rationalized national and global networks • But…new costs/taxes too: ATM, ETS, etc.

  6. Uncertainty Rules • So, what else is new? • Durable trust between the parties would go a long way to resolve internal issues • How to break through? What stimulus? • EU-US interest talks may be a blueprint • Or recent actions drive the wedge in deeper

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