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Pilot study Langeoog Estimation of Damage for various water levels - Using the MERK Method -

Pilot study Langeoog Estimation of Damage for various water levels - Using the MERK Method - Holger Blum NLWK Norden. Outline. To test the method: theoretical water levels - First approach Estimation of Damage (based on MERK - method) Visualisation of Intangible / Tangible damages

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Pilot study Langeoog Estimation of Damage for various water levels - Using the MERK Method -

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  1. Pilot study Langeoog Estimation of Damage for various water levels - Using the MERK Method - Holger Blum NLWK Norden

  2. Outline • To test the method: theoretical water levels - First approach • Estimation of Damage(based on MERK - method) • Visualisation of Intangible / Tangible damages • Results

  3. Assumptions for the Damage Estimation • No Dikes • Same water level above the reference surface (mNN) covering the investiagtion area • Damage due to the process of breaching of a dike or dune (Impact Zone) is ignored • High water level will fall within ~ 24 hours to normal level

  4. First Approach • Minimum Level = NN + 1.6 m (~ high water at spring tide) • Maximum Level = NN + 5.1 m(design water level at present) • Variation of water level by steps of 0.5 m

  5. Inundated area by NN + 1.6 m flood

  6. Inundated area by NN + 2.1 m flood

  7. Inundated area by NN + 2.6 m flood

  8. Inundated area by NN + 3.1 m flood

  9. Inundated area by NN + 3.6 m flood

  10. Inundated area by NN + 4.1 m flood

  11. Inundated area by NN + 4.6 m flood

  12. Inundated area by NN + 5.1 m flood

  13. The investigation done by Uni Kiel:- microscale valuation (field work)- Damage potential by heights and spatial distribution (georeferenced) • Damage estimation done by NLWK:- Analysis of affected areas and objects- Calculation of estimated damage - Generalization of results

  14. Estimation of Damage (intangible) • Object related damages • (flooded) Area related damages

  15. Estimation of Damage (intangible) IF water_level_in_building > 0 THEN „AFFECTED“ = True Flooding of Ground floor ==> 100% of beds / 100% of inhabitants in this building are affected

  16. Estimation of Damage (intangible) IF water_level_at_highest_floor > 0 THEN „EVACUATION_essential“ = True • No “dry place” in the building • Different numbers and heights of the floors are taken into account • A real evacuation will affect more persons.

  17. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.1 m)

  18. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 2.6 m)

  19. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.1 m)

  20. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 3.6 m)

  21. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.1 m)

  22. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 4.6 m)

  23. Estimated affected guest beds (NN + 5.1 m)

  24. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)

  25. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)

  26. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)

  27. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)

  28. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)

  29. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)

  30. Estimated affected inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)

  31. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.1 m)

  32. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 2.6 m)

  33. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.1 m)

  34. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 3.6 m)

  35. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.1 m)

  36. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 4.6 m)

  37. Est. Evacuated inhabitants (NN + 5.1 m)

  38. Beginning at a water level of NN + 2.6 m evacuation will be essential • Some building in the southern part of the island will be isolated. Some inhabitants of those houses should be evacuated.

  39. Est. Evacuated inhabitants

  40. Estimation of Damage (tangile) • Object related damages • (flooded) Area related damages Based on the mircoscale valuation of Langeoog and according to the MERK-formulas (REESE 2003)

  41. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (1) • Evacuation rates: Private Inv. = 5% / 40%Fixed Assets = 0% / 30%Stock value = 5% / 20%

  42. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (2) • Evacuation rate = 80 % • No damage to aero-planes, railway engines or railway carriage is taken into account

  43. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (3) • Loss of 55%(Lost animals and reduced production)

  44. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (4) • The Flood persists for one day. water level NN+5.1m: Damage to Gross value added per day = 114.000 €

  45. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (5) • Costs: 150 €/pers.

  46. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (6) • Damageto Traffic Areas and Recreational Land (Cost of Cleaning) 3.6 €/m² (unsurfaced)6.0 €/m² (paved)

  47. Damage Estimation - Assumptions (7) • Damage: 0.01 €/m² (greenland) 0.50 €/m² (farmland)

  48. Estimated damage by NN + 2.1 m flood S = 1,662,000 €

  49. Estimated damage by NN + 2.6 m flood S = 6,720,000 €

  50. Estimated damage by NN + 3.1 m flood S = 18,775,000 €

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