TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY

1. TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE: TOWARDS A NEW METHODOLOGY AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY BY ESTHER KAGURE MUNYIRI Lecturer, Kenyatta University Department of Tourism Management ekagure@yahoo.com Ecotourism Conference 2012

2. INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND World Economic activity worldwide is estimated at some 5% contribute 6-7% employment worldwide Kenya 1 million tourists in 2010 generated US$1 billion One of the largest foreign exchange earner – 10% GDP and 9% employment

3. Climate is ‘average weather. Climate is average of temperature, precipitation and wind over a period of time Climate change - any change in climateover time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity

5. Development of interest on climate change Late 1800’s - Evidence of anthropogenic climate change first emerged Late 1950s –Measured the concentration of Co2 levels in the atmosphere 1988 - IPCC - provides scientific view of climate in IPCC Assessment Reports.(1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007) 1992 - Earth Summit - Outcome - UNFCC (key international treaty to reduce GHG First International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism - Djerba – 2003 2nd - in Davos, Switzerland - 2007. Tourism

6. Impacts of climate change • Increased temperature - 0.76°C (1850-1899 & 2001-2005) • Greater tropical storm intensity and peak • More intense precipitation events • longer and more severe droughts

7. Aim of the study • To develop a methodology and model for the assessment of vulnerability of tourism to climate change. • To develop stakeholders’ collaborative and participatory strategies and encourage political commitment in order to tackle present and future impacts of climate change in a sustainable manner.

8. LITERATURE REVIEW Tourism and Climate • Tourism is a major contributor of greenhouse gases which in turn contribute to climate change. • Key resource for tourism • Tourism can be a tool for climate change mitigation

9. Impacts on tourism Climate poses a severe risk to tourism in relation to extreme events such as floods, droughts and heat waves, • increased infrastructure damage • additional emergency preparedness requirements • higher operating expenses (e.g., insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations) • business interruptions • Competitiveness • Profitability Most vulnerable - the Caribbean, Small Island Developing States, Southeast Asia and Africa.

10. Effect on tourism • Tourist mobility and flows - mitigation policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions Through - transport costs and changed environmental attitudes • National tourism economies of many long-haul destinations • Political instability of some nations • Shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely • Poverty reduction, health and environmental Millennium Development Goals affected.

11. Climate-induced environmental changes • changes in biodiversity loss • water availability • increased natural hazards • reduced landscape aesthetic • altered agricultural production • coastal erosion and inundation • damage to infrastructure and the increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases

12. The case of Kenya Tourism in Kenya: Contributes 18% - foreign exchange 12% - GDP Faces a number of challenges –safari and coastal tourism - western markets - leakages, and - climate change. A leading economic sector in the achievement of Vision 2030 and attainment of the MDGs.

13. Climate change in Kenya Kenya’s climate varies considerably • Geography • substantial arid • semi-arid area • coastal tourism resources • unique biodiversity • natural heritage • largely depends on natural resources

14. Impacts on Kenya More frequent and severe floods Recent El Niño (1997/98) and La Niña (1999/2000) episodes were the most severe in 50 years the 1999 and 2000 droughts costed 2.4% of GDP • Kenya’s famine cycles have reduced from :- • 20 years (1964-1984) • to 12 years (1984-1996) • to two years (2004-2006) • to yearly 2007/2008/2009) • Declines in annual rainfall

15. Rising temperatures • Average annual temperatures increased by 1°C (15 % rise) between 1960 and 2003 glaciers on Mount Kenya - disappearing, leading to the drying up of some river streams. 82% of the icecap on mountain Kilimanjaro is gone projected to vanish in 15 years • Rising sea levels

16. Ability to cope compounded by: • Poverty • weak institutions • poor infrastructure • lack of information • poor access to financial resources • Low management capabilities • armed conflicts • high interest rates The destruction of ecosystems essential for the survival of wildlife would be a great loss not only to Africa, but to the planet.

17. METHODOLOGY ANALYSIS Vulnerability and adaptation assessment An assessment of vulnerability and adaptation is crucial in responding to the changing climate. Efforts are still preliminary

18. Methods of vulnerability assessment

19. Lacks • Persistence • Timing • Likelihood • Adaptation • Future

20. Methodologies of vulnerability assessment The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies Require a lot of data input Methodologies and theories - limited and mostly address demand side Most emphases temperature

21. New methodology should be Bottom - up

22. 1. Identify issues & determine the scope 6. Communicate recommendations to stakeholders 2. Describe the current vulnerability of impacts 5. Identify additional adaptation strategies 3. Describe current adaptation strategies 4. Estimate future potential impacts and implications New Methodology for tourism vulnerability assessment to climate change

23. Exposure Magnitude % of people affected % of damage % revenue loss % cost of adaptation % loss of culture % loss of heritage % loss of biodiversity Persistence & Reversibility Permanency Cycles changes Land cover changes Loss of snow Extinction of species Loss of unique cultures Distribution Population groups Regional groups Heterogeneity Consequences Salience level Timing Frequency Suddenness Linearity Likelihood Expert elicitations Spread Sensitivity Livelihoods Species habitat Tourists perceptions Infrastructure Attraction characteristics Vulnerability Adaptation (Adaptive capacity) Ability/ capacity Resources Feasibility Costs Timeliness (Dis) incentives Compatibility Support Diversification Warning systems Research and monitoring Carrying capacity Protection Conservation Current Without adaptation New Conceptual model for assessment of tourism vulnerability to climate change

24. Conclusion The proposed conceptual model and methodology are intended to help destination managers and other stakeholders assess in a systematic and structured way the vulnerability of their destinations to climate change, and to identify feasible adaptation options. A tourism industry that anticipates potential changes is less affected by these changes (less vulnerable), has more possibilities to recover from external and internal shocks (more resilient), has more possibilities to take advantage of the new conditions and is more likely to be successful in the current era of rapid change.

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