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VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004

VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004. Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park. VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US. View West from Shining Rock Wilderness Area, NC. VISTAS Air Quality Modeling. Objectives:

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VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004

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  1. VISTAS Modeling Overview May 25, 2004 Mt. Cammerer, Great Smoky Mtns. National Park

  2. VISTAS is evaluating visibility and sources of fine particulate mass in the Southeastern US View West from Shining Rock Wilderness Area, NC

  3. VISTAS Air Quality Modeling Objectives: • Accurately represent meteorology, emissions, and air quality • MM5, SMOKE, CMAQ • Model base year to support both regional haze and PM2.5regulatory requirements • Model future year and control strategies for regional haze • states responsible for PM2.5attainment demonstrations

  4. VISTAS Air Quality Modeling • Phase I: Evaluate different model configurations for 3 episodes: Jan 02, July 99, July 01 • Recommend annual modeling protocol Mar 04 • Phase II: Annual regional modeling • 2002 base year modeling begins Feb 04 • Future year control strategy runs completed 2005 • 2009 interim year • 2018 • 2003 episodes: • evaluate model performance using continuous speciated data from VISTAS Focus sites (Smokies, Cape Romain, Raleigh)

  5. Emissions, Meteorological, Air Quality Modeling Deliverables Draft 5/19/04 Jan-Mar 2004 Define inv growth and control assumptions Jan-Sep 2004 Define BART sources Sep 2004 Identify BART controls June 2005 Economic Analyses Apr 2004 Draft 2018 National Inv Oct-Dec 2004: Control Strategies and Inventories Jan 2004 Revised 2002 VISTAS Em Inv Mar 2004 Em Modeling QA + Fill Gaps Sep 2004 Revised 2002 National Inv Sep 2004 “Typical” 2002 Modeling Inv Oct 2004: Revised 2018 Em Inv Jan 2004 Met modeling protocol Feb-Apr 2004 MM5 Met runs Sept 2004 MM5 Met Final Report Dec 2004 Revised 2002 Base Run (model performance) Dec 2004 “Typical” 2002 Run (compare to 2018 runs) Jan-Jun 2005 2018 Control Strategy Runs Dec 04 2018 Base Run Mar 2004 AQ modeling protocol Mar 2004 AQ Phase I wrapup Apr-Sep 2004 Annual 2002 CMAQ model performance EPA- approved Modeling Protocol Jan - Jun 2005 2003 episodes: em inv, met, aq model May-Oct 2004 2018 Emissions Sensitivity Runs July-Dec 2005: Observations Conclusions Recommendations Apr 2004: DDM in CMAQ Sep 2004 CART:select episodes Aug 2004 / Dec 2005 Draft / Final Natural Background and Reasonable Progress Goals State Regulatory Activities Dec 2004 Interim Future Year Inventories Jan 2005 Interim Future Year Model Runs

  6. Emissions Inventories • Objective: • Define emissions for PM2.5 and regional haze modeling • Responsibility: Stella, MACTEC, Pechan • Deliverables: • 2002 1st draft inventory – Aug 2003 • 2002 2nd draft inventory – Jan 2004 • 2018 1st draft inventory – Apr 2004 • 2002 revised (3rd draft) inventory – Sep 2004 • 2002 revised plus “typical” EGU and fires – Sep 2004 • 2018 revised plus BART and “typical” EGU and fires – Oct 2004 • 2009 draft inventory – Oct 2004

  7. MeteorologicalModeling • Objective: • Accurately represent meteorological conditions for atmospheric modeling using MM5 model • Responsibilities: Baron Applied Meteorological Systems • Deliverables: • Evaluate meteorological model for 3 episodes – Dec 2003 • Recommend met modeling protocol for 2002 – Dec 2004 • Deliver met runs for 2002 – Mar 2004 • Deliver met runs for selected 2003 episodes – fall 2004 • Reporting and data transfer - ongoing

  8. Emissions Modeling • Objective: • Prepare inventories for atmospheric modeling using SMOKE model, including temporal and spatial allocation • Responsibilities: Alpine Geophysics • Deliverables: • Emissions for 3 Phase I modeling episodes – Sep 03 • 2002 emissions for VISTAS states, US, Canada, Mexico – Mar 04 • 2002 revised and “typical” emissions – Oct 04 • 2018 initial and revised emissions – Apr and Nov 04 • 2009 emissions – Dec 04

  9. Air Quality Modeling • Objectives: • Accurately represent air quality using CMAQ model • Evaluate benefits from emissions controls • Responsibilities:ENVIRON, University California Riverside, Alpine Geophysics • Deliverables: • Evaluate model configuration for 3 episodes – Feb 04 • Recommend model protocol for annual 2002 run – Mar 04 • Model 2002 using initial, revised, and revised plus typical EGU and fire emissions – Apr to Nov 04 • Model 2009 and 2018 with typical emissions – Dec 04 • Model control strategies – Jan to Jun 05

  10. Emissions Sensitivity Modeling • Objective: • Evaluate air quality responses to modeled changes in emissions to inform emissions strategy design • Responsibilities: Georgia Tech • Deliverables: • Demonstrate Decoupled Direct Method for aerosols (DDM-AERO) in CMAQ – Apr 04 • Time savings offset by added memory requirement, not continued • Evaluate emissions changes using Jul 01 and Jan 02 episodes and 2018 inventory • by source sector, geographic area – Oct 04

  11. Characterizing Meteorology • Objective: • Characterize relationship between meteorology, PM2.5, visibility, for IMPROVE and STN sites, using Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analyses • Recommend episodes in 2002 or 2003 for focused modeling analyses • Responsibility:Systems Application International • Deliverables: • Initial CART analyses for IMPROVE sites – Apr 04 • Initial CART analyses for STN sites – Jun 04 • Recommend options for episodes – Aug 04

  12. CMAQ Model Configuration CMAQ Version 4.3 (August 2003) • Horizontal Advection and Vertical Advection • Piecewise Parabolic Method (PPM) • Gas-Phase Chemistry: CB-IV with MEBI/Hertel Solver • Aerosol Chemistry: AE3 / ISORROPIA / SORGAM • Aqueous-Phase Chemistry: RADM • Dry Deposition: Pleim-Xiu • MM5 Configuration: • Pleim-Xiu/ACM Soil/PBL models with MCIP2.2 Pass Through • 36 km national grid, 12 km VISTAS domain (eastern US)

  13. VISTAS 36-km and 12-km CMAQ Modeling Domains

  14. CMAQ Phase I Sensitivity Tests • Vertical Layers: 19 vs 34 layers • Boundary Conditions: Ultra Clean, GEOS-CHEM • Ammonia Emissions: Jan 50% reduction, diurnal pattern • Vertical Diffusivity - Minimum Kz: 0.1 or 1.0 m2/s • Alternative meteorology - with Wesley Dry Deposition • Mass Conservation Patch • SAPRC-99 chemistry • CB-2002 chemistry • CB-AIMS chemistry with sectional approach • CAM-x trial with comparable configuration • Best and Final CMAQ configuration

  15. CMAQ Configuration: Annual Modeling • Lambert Comformal • 36 km origin (-2736, -2088) • 12 km origin (108, -1620) • 1-way nesting • Vertical Diffusivity: Minimum Kz: 1.0 m2/s • Boundary Conditions: • 2001 GEOS-CHEM seasonal averages initially • replace fall 2004 with 2002 GEOS-CHEM 3 hr ave

  16. CMAQ Configuration: Annual Modeling • Emissions used in Apr 04: • VISTAS states: 2002 state inventories • Fires from state and federal records • Fires modeled as point sources where sufficient data • Non-VISTAS states: NEI 2002 (Apr 04 release) • Canada and Mexico as available • Ammonia from CMU (Jan 04 version) with updates • Biogenics with BEIS3 • Temporal profiles from SMOKE except: • Point sources: CEM hourly profiles • MOBILE and NONROAD: 1 week/month

  17. Performance Evaluation • IMPROVE – daily • STN – daily 1 in 3 or 1 in6 • SEARCH – daily and hourly • CASTNET – weekly • NADP – weekly • AQS – hourly

  18. www.vistas-sesarm.org www.cert.ucr.edu/vistas

  19. 2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks 1.Project Management 2. IC/BC analysis: GEOS-CHEM 3. Data Management a. Air Quality Gatekeeper b. Meteorological Gatekeeper c. Emissions Gatekeeper d. Emissions Modeling: 2002, 2018 for annual modeling e. Emissions Modeling: 2018 for emissions sensitivity f. Emissions Modeling: 2009

  20. 2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks 4. CMAQ Modeling a. 2002 Initial Inventory b. 2002 Revised Inventory c. 2002 revised plus “typical” Fire and EGU d. 2018 “typical” e. 2009 “typical” 5. 2003 episodes 6. Website, Data Transfer, Storage, Retrieval

  21. 2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks • Evaluate CB-IV vs SAPRC for responses to emissions changes • Journal publication Phase I • 2002 GEOS-CHEM outputs prepared for CMAQ IC/BC inputs • Contingency

  22. 2004 Modeling Workplan Tasks • Optional Tasks • Extended Performance Evaluation • Emissions Sensitivities • Source Apportionment/Tracers • Natural Background Analysis • Comparison of Alternate Models • 2005 workplan focus: modeling control strategies

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