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Uncovering Predictors of Climate Sensitivity: A Data Mining Approach

Explore the search for predictors of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) using data mining techniques. Discover the statistical significance of correlations and potential mechanisms, focusing on the Southern Ocean. Published in Geophys. Res. Letters.

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Uncovering Predictors of Climate Sensitivity: A Data Mining Approach

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  1. Idea: • Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, surface warming expected from CO2 doubling) is a critical measure of global warming • Several recent studies estimate ECS by establishing relations between ECS and currently observable quantities (e.g. Fig. 1) • We search through >40,000 current-climate fields for predictors of ECS and test the statistical significance of the results • This requires a new technique for testing significance of the best correlations out of a huge dataset containing dependencies across fields and between models • Results: • Strong correlations are expected by chance • None of the current-climate predictors tested are significant at the 95% level. • Robust identification of observable predictors of ECS require a convincing physical mechanism • The best data-mined predictors of ECS are related to the Southern Ocean, suggesting this is a likely place to search for mechanisms connecting current climate to ECS Office of Science Statistical Significance of Climate Sensitivity Predictors Obtained by Data Mining (accepted by GRL 2/13/14)P. M. Caldwell, C. S. Bretherton, M. D. Zelinka, S. A. Klein, B. D. Santer, & B. M. Sanderson Fig 1: Relationship between ECS and the best-correlated current-climate predictor (summer-time specific humidity at 1000 mb averaged over 30-50S ). Each number represents a CMIP5 model. Publication: Caldwell, P.M., C.S. Bretherton, M.D. Zelinka, S.A. Klein, B.D. Santer, and B.A. Sanderson: Statistical Significance of Climate Sensitivity Predictors Obtained by Data Mining. Geophys. Res. Letters. Accepted. doi: 10.1002/2014GL059205 Fig 2: Number of fields correlated with ECS at >0.7 in absolute value as a function of the number of independent models assumed (blue line) and number expected by chance at 95% confidence level (red line).

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