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Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects

Inside. Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects ～ Analysis of “NEDO inside Products” Survey ～ Evaluation Department ○M asaru YAMASHITA, Yoshiko YURUGI, Sayaka SHISHIDO, and Mitsuru TAKESHITA. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization.

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Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects

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  1. Inside Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects ～Analysis of “NEDO inside Products” Survey～ Evaluation Department ○Masaru YAMASHITA, Yoshiko YURUGI, Sayaka SHISHIDO, and Mitsuru TAKESHITA New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

  2. What is “NEDO inside Products” Inside ・・・・　,is developed the result of a NEDO project as a core technology at the early stag,which leads to the product concerned, which is utilized・・・・・ Contribution ratio 100% Products Results ◆Purpose： The cost effectiveness and social benefitabout the “NEDO inside 30 Products"were examined.

  3. Examination： Inside ★ Large Sales 30 Products 1. Candidate products; ○ Latest year sales : 1.25 billion$ or more 　　 ○ 0.25 or more～less than 1.25billion$ ○ Sales are small, but its social benefit is large 2. Trial calculation; ① Economic effect: PJ fund, the latest sales, sales for the past five years, prediction sales in 2010～2020 ②Social benefit: CO2 reduction effect, ripple effects, employment, etc.

  4. Calculation: Inside ・ Average cost of PJ(Fy) : Eq.= 【The total cost for a project implementation period】 【 PJ term 】 ・ Latest sales of Fy(Fy2009) : Eq.= 【 The sum total for latest object products for 5 years 】 【 5 years 】 Or 【 the reply only for a single year is the frame 】 ・ Future sales(Fy.2010～2020 accumulation) Simple trial calculation 　　・・・・・・・・・＞　 a basis on sales forecasting in 2020

  5. Basis Data: Inside ”NEDO inside 30 products” stand out and it answers from 80 companies. ＜Official data＞ ①Economic Organization ② Public Institution, Private Research Institute ＜Furthermore＞ ③To the data running short, complement calculation is done above data and it applies. (only in case of prediction).

  6. The sales track record of top 30 Items Inside （Unit：100million JP\ Billion $）

  7. Cost Effectiveness Inside Forecasting Sales in 2010 ～2020: 698.7billion$. ○ The NEDO budget is about 5.3billion$. ○Corporate-income taxation is about 10.4 billion$ : Eq.= 698.7 billion(s) $ ×3.66%(pretax margin ratio) ×40.69%(effective rate of corporate income taxation) ※ The Ministry of Finance "business and investment survey of incorporated enterprises“is referred to. 【Results】 Tax revenues(10.4) exceedsa NEDO budget injection(5.3) .

  8. Employment Effect Inside Forecasting Sales in 2010 ～2020:698.7billion$. ○26.3billion$×13.38%(Sales ratio of personnel expenses) ÷6238$ (Average proceeds )＝56,000 people/year ○698.7billion$×13.38%(Sales ratio of personnel expenses) ÷6238$(Average proceeds)＝1,500,000 people/10year ※A sales ratio of personnel expenses refers to the Ministry of Finance "business and investment survey of incorporated enterprises", and refer to National Tax Agency "pay-for-private-sector-employees survey" for average proceeds. 【 Results】(The sales in 2009 and 2010 ～2020) About 56,000～150,000people for every year.

  9. 1. Energy and Environment ・・・13Items Inside （unitBillion $） Object products: Photovoltaic, Wind power generation, Generating electricity from waste materials, a home hot-water supply machine (ECO CUTE), industrial heat pump, Vacuum insulating material, Chlorofluocarbon destruction and substitution, Fuel cell, Storage battery (lithium ion battery), Micro fuel cell, the charge of an insulation material, standby-power-requirement reduction technology, and highly efficient industrial furnace

  10. Solar Cell Inside The View Point Fy1981～　2.17billion$ 　★The Solar Celltechnology were mostly developed the result of NEDO project. 　★ A system installation price falls in about 1/3. 　★ Latest Market Sales in 2010・・・・・・8billion$. Utilization of a solar cell The result of research spreads also as core technology of not only a solar energy power generation system but also liquid crystal industry(large-sized TFT manufacture), or semiconductor industry (large caliber slice). Micro crystallite tandem Film type Formation of large area and the improvement in power generation efficiency realize cost reduction. it can bend freely [ it is light and ] -- it is installation to the roof where intensity is weak, a curved surface-like roof, etc. -- possible

  11. ECO CUTE( home hot-water supply machine) hot-water supply 31％ Power etc. 35％ Air conditioning 2％ Heating 24％ Cookroom 8％ Inside The View Point Fy1984～2007193million$ ★Heat pump hot-water supply machine which can be adapted as "ECO CUTE" also in the high efficiency of being more than twice, compared with the conventional machine. The energy consumed for hot-water supply occupies 31% of the energy consumption of a home section. From 2007, it introduces into the market steadily. Sales in Fy.2008 ---> about 50,000 sets/y Finishing of 2 million-setintroduction by December, 2009. ～2020 accumulation： 10 million sets Households Energy Consumption in 2006 The "Kyoto Protocol target achievement plan" also aims at the spread of 5,200,000 heat pump hot- water supply sets and 2,800,000 latent heat recovery gas hot-water supply sets by 2010.

  12. Chlorofluocarbon Destruction Inside The View Point Fy1996～200660million$ ★Chlorofluocarbondestructive equipment were developed, 8 setsin Japan and 14 sets at overseasare working! ★It is established as reduction of CO2, 10 million-ton /yequivalent to 0.8% of the amount of discharge will be reduced! Technology of collecting the recycled resources(fluoriteas)while burning and destroying various Chlorofluocarbon it in liquid. The amount of CO2 reduction ---> Domestic 10 million-ton/y. Overseas 10 million-ton/y. The market expansion of 3 times or more expects overseas! HFC-23 (3% subraw) which occurs at the time of manufacture of HCFC-22 is decomposed. Submerged combustion furnace (Daikin Industries, LTD. Yodogawa factory)

  13. Fuel Cell Power Generation Inside (Prime Minister prize 2010) The View Point Fy1992～20101.1billion$ ★Produce commercially as “ENE・FARM " for the first time in the world,NEDO contributed to an introductory expansion of the family-size fuel cell. ★ 18,150(accumulation) sets had been sold in Japan until 2011! The performance of a home polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) system and improvement in durability were realized by industry-academia- collaboration. Every year 5,000 setswill be sold in 2009～2011 :Total Sales .68billion$. Fy. 2020 sales : 500,000 sets Family-size fuel cell cogeneration system Ene-Farm"

  14. Highly Efficient Furnace Inside The View Point Fy1993～2000420millionn$ ★Energy saving and NOx discharge were realized,a NOxremarkable cut, 20% miniaturization, and 30%energy saving ! ★Introduction for commercial plants, such as the steel industry and aluminumindustry, and it occupied 1/3 or more sale. As for the simulation technique and a databaseare applied for the other uses of high temperature air combustion. 668 affairs(0.88billion$) are introduced till Fy2001～2005. efficient industrial furnace Main Principles of Regenerative Burner

  15. 2．Relief and Safe・・・ 7Items Inside （unitBillion $） Object products: CT (medical equipment), the microscope for biotechnology, a low-pollution diesel car, ecocement, photocatalyst, water disposal, and antibody drug

  16. Advanced MedicalImaging! Inside 4-dimensional X-rays CT Brain Tumor Full Extraction The View Point The View Point Fy1998～200311.7million$ ★An 700 -operation already carries out to all the example no accident The probability of survival will improve sharply for after a brain tumor patient‘s operationfor five years with 90% (69% of national average) ★The contribution to payment-by- the- patient reduction by shortening 1/5 or less of photography time, etc. More than world 100 setson (Japanese 27, the U.S. 36, Europe 20) -- in operation Aquilion ONETM （ A providing agency: Toshiba Medical Systems Systems） The heart photoed by one rotation. （ A providing agency: Fujita Health University ）/ A providing agency: Tokyo Women's Medical University, Hitachi Medical ）

  17. Eco-Cement Inside Eco-cement is a compound word of ecology and cement and is new cementmanufactured by combustion ashes and raw sludge, as main materials. Fy 1994: NEDO empirical-study start Fy 2006: Eco-cement JIS establishment Fy1993～1997 31.3million$ • (1)City garbage incineration ashes: 62,000 / y • (2)Burn sludge, industrial waste:28,000ton/ y • (3)Producton: 145,000ton/y (Tokyo Tama) • “ Specification of Green Purchasing Law” • ・・・・・Specific ProcuredItem

  18. 3. Industrial Competitiveness ・・ 10Items Inside （unitBillion $） Object products: Blue lei allied products, a perpendicular-magnetic-recording HDD, nano-e, a magnetic sheet, high efficiency and a quantity reliability server, electronic lithography, auto-parts related adhesion technology, semiconductor related adhesion technology, Cat-CVD, cleaning robot

  19. Blu-ray Disc Inside The View Point Fy1998～200276.3million$ ★Technology which reads record by detecting the very small piton a disk with blue laser! ★Two or more companies concentrate to a consortium promote a standardization activity,and is a worldwide sales greatly.! High density recording and runningare realizable, energy saving is also high. JAPAN captures 90%(Fy.2008) of share of a world market. Sales in 2008: ・・・・→　4.33billion$ ① Technology which indicates two record layers on a disk and it reads with light ② The technology which draws recorded information (pit) correctly to original recording was developed. Anticipation Sales: 2012: -- 14.4billion$ 2020: -- 153.3billion$

  20. Small and Mass: HDD Inside The View Point Fy1995～200175million$ ★The based HDD wasdeveloped by adopting vertical recording system (epoch-making invention from Japan which stuffs magnetic data at right angles to a record side)! ★Fast large-scale and downsizing are realized. HDD contributed to the global new market creation greatly! A 2.5-inch hard disk drive is put in practical use! Almost all the present HDD serve as this perpendicular magnetic recording, and dominated the world. Storage density of 50 times or more is realized. The storage capacity for 50 hard disks before a project is possible at one set. In 2004 and afterwards : →a perpendicular-magnetic-recording start. Sales in 2008 ： 7.17billion$ SalesAccumulation in2010～2020 ：78.8billion$

  21. ” NEDO inside 30 product"Gold,Silver, and Bronze! 4. Blu-Lay 　・ Improvement in performance 　・ Global standard 　・1998 1. Solar Cell, wind power ・Preeminent ・1981 2. Hard Disk Drive(HDD) ・Convenience ・1995 3. ECO-CUTE ・hot water ・All ectrification linkage ・1984 5. Chlorofluocarbon Destruction ・CDM dealings ・1996 6. Industrial Furnace ・Energy-saving・1993 7. Standby Copy ・ Energy-saving ・1999 9. Lithography ・ Improvement in aprocess ・1987 8 SCR Processing ・Regulation orrespondence ・1997 10. Thermal Insulating ・ Energy-saving ・2003 11. Semiconductor Bond ・Niche products ・2001 12. InsulatingMaterial ・Regulation ・2004 13. Microscope ・ Scientific contribution ・1998 14. Nano-e ・ Product influencing ・2001

  22. Contribution of NEDO: Inside ① In the super heat pump PJ, the basic concept (Lorentz cycle) of CO2 heat pump led to development of "ECO-CUTE“ ② 2002, July “Eco-Cement”, which became No.1 of JIS for Environment Protection Item (JIS R5214). ③The evaluation technique contributes to the deregulationwhich can make possible to the home of a fuel cell was developed, and it led todevelopment of “En-farm” for the first time in theworld. ④ The development result of the fixed type storage battery serves as a basic patent of the lithium ion battery for hybrid cars. Moreover, it is used for evaluation of a consumer lithium ion battery, and contributes to high-efficiency etc.

  23. Conclusions &Feature views Inside ★ “NEDO inside products” had taken the development period of (1) about 30years, (2) 20 years, and (3)10years respectively. Before starting of NEDO project, basic research for about 5～7 years is performed in a university, a company, etc. in many cases.  ★Expansion for investigation will be important. As a candidate technologies: the biomass, nanotechnology/ materials,biotechnology, robot, information, manufacturing process, and MEMS (micro electro mechanical system), etc are mentioned. ★Indirectly, the development result is diverted to some other purpose (product, technology development) in many cases. The estimation of the sales about a ripple effect, and incorporating in cost effectivenessbecomes a future subject.

  24. Thank you for your kind attention. yamashitamsr@nedo.go.jp http://www.nedo.go.jp

  25. The calculation method of future accumulationsales forecasting 3) a product life is short or cannot expect sales easily 2) large sales in the future 1) Favorable sales Or replacement etc. 2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020 Concrete example: Wind power generation, ECO CUTE, a component, energy saving, chlorofluocarbon destruction, SCR, adhesives, a fuel cell Concrete example: Photovoltaics, a storage battery, a photocatalyst, water business, coal relation Concrete example: An electron, biotechnology, machine allied products nano-e, blue lei, and highly efficient industrial furnace

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