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The MacMillan Memorial Lecture BRIDGING THE INFRASTRUCTURE GAP By Gus Macdonald

The Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders In Scotland. The MacMillan Memorial Lecture BRIDGING THE INFRASTRUCTURE GAP By Gus Macdonald. ‘Infrastructure to 2030’ report (OECD, 2006). Strategic transport Investment Needs 2009 – 2030 estimates ($ Billion). Aggregate Investment: 2009 - 2030.

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The MacMillan Memorial Lecture BRIDGING THE INFRASTRUCTURE GAP By Gus Macdonald

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  1. The Institution of Engineers and Shipbuilders In Scotland The MacMillan Memorial Lecture BRIDGING THE INFRASTRUCTURE GAP ByGus Macdonald

  2. ‘Infrastructure to 2030’ report (OECD, 2006)

  3. Strategic transport Investment Needs 2009 – 2030 estimates ($ Billion) Aggregate Investment: 2009 - 2030

  4. GDP Growth Rates 2010-2015 2030-2050 2015-2030 Sources: IEA World Energy Outlook 2010, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2010. International Energy Agency

  5. world economy shifting East China’s GDP to overtake US GDP before 2025. GDP ($PPP Billions) Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2009. International Energy Agency

  6. Passenger and freight demand-outlook to 2030 Index Base level 2010 =100 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

  7. GDP per capita growth Selected countries to 2030

  8. This year the UK came 28th in international rankings. In terms of productivity, this infrastructure deficit is as serious as our budget deficit “ ” David Cameron

  9. Privatisation is again sweeping the world, with governments hauling in a record $213bn in revenues last year “ ” Financial Times

  10. Gas distribution companies 1 2 3 4

  11. Electricity distribution companies 1 2 4 3 2 5 5 6 1

  12. Water companies

  13. Infrastructure Characteristics Natural monopolies or high entry barriers Predictable cash flows – inflation linked • Insulation from business cycle • Portfolio diversification

  14. UK Infrastructure – Ownership origin UK an attractive market for global investors Foreign ownership (shareholding) around 40% and increasing Investor opportunities for differing preferences Rest of World UK Europe Source: OFT

  15. Pension assets as % GDP- SELECTED COUNTRIES 2009 Netherlands Australia United Kingdom United States Canada Simple average Japan Spain Germany Italy Source: OECD Global Pension Statistics

  16. We are not going to save the planet by putting our country out of business “ ” George Osborne

  17. Curmudgeons and fault finders who hold forth on the impossibility of renewals...the climate sceptics and armchair engineers “ ” Chris Huhne

  18. Installation vessels

  19. Installation equipment Turbines loading Transport to site Transition piece Turbine installation Pile driving

  20. Offshore O&M Offshore substation and accommodation platforms Boat landing Helicopter access O&M Vessel Mother-ship solution

  21. Electrical

  22. I wrote it because sustainable energy is important. If you would like to have this book free, please help yourself: it is on the internet at www.withouthotair.com “ ” Prof. David MacKay

  23. Bridging the Gap • Institutional/Pension Funds • Retail Infrastructure Products • Corporate Investment • User Payments • Taxpayer Support Multilateral Funds Sovereign Wealth Funds GFC Stimulus Packages Infrastructure Banks Privatisation/PPP

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