Suburban Demographic Change and Perception Lag

1. kanacker@gmu.edu

2. Context: Suburbs • “Over the past several decades some suburban picture windows in the United States have developed cracks […]. Many suburbs are no longer places with high proportions of homeowning non-Hispanic Whites and native borns with relatively high household incomes, high levels of education, and without any problems […]. Indeed, some suburbs have never had these characteristics […]. Interestingly perception has been lagging behind […]” (Anacker, 2015, 1).

3. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: U.S. suburban decline and poverty

4. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: U.S. suburban diversity

5. Context: Suburbs (cont’d) • changes in demographics, socioeconomics, and housing stock; focus: suburbs in the international context

7. Five Key Themes • Suburban poverty; • Racial, ethnic, and nativist change; • Suburban Decline – or not? • Suburban foreclosures; • Suburban policy.

8. Table of Contents • Introduction (Katrin B. Anacker) • Section I: Suburban Poverty • The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) • Debunking the “Cookie-Cutter” Myth for Suburban Places and Suburban Poverty: Analyzing their Variety and Recent Trends (Karen Beck Pooley)

9. Table of Contents (cont’d) • Section II: Racial, Ethnic, and Nativist Change • The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) • Local Immigration Legislation in Two Suburbs: An Examination of Immigration Policies in Farmers Branch, Texas, and Carpentersville, Illinois (Bernadette Hanlon and Thomas J. Vicino) • Section III: Suburban Decline – or Not? • Beyond Sprawl: Social Sustainability and Reinvestment in the Baltimore Suburbs (Bernadette Hanlon) • Metropolitan Growth Patterns and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan)

10. Table of Contents (cont’d) • Section IV: Suburban Foreclosures • Responses to Foreclosure and Abandonment in Cleveland’s Inner Suburbs: Three Case Studies (W. Dennis Keating) • Punctuated Equilibrium: Community Responses to Neoliberalism in Three Suburban Communities in Baltimore County, Maryland (Gregory Smithsimon) • Section V: Suburban Policy • Revitalizing Distressed Older Suburbs: Case Studies in Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (Kathryn W. Hexter, Edward W. (Ned) Hill, Benjamin Y. Clark, Brian A. Mikelbank and Charles Post) • The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin J. Roth and Scott W. Allard)

11. Section I: Suburban Poverty

12. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) • Findings: • The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in the United States; • Regional Impacts; • City and Suburban Trends; • Demographic Shifts;

13. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: Metropolitan Trends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) (cont’d) Table 2.5: Change in Extreme-Poverty Neighborhoods in Cities and Suburbs, 100 Metro Areas, 1990 to 2005-09: Suburbs

14. The Resurgence of Concentrated Poverty in America: MetropolitanTrends in the 2000s (Elizabeth Kneebone and Carey Anne Nadeau) (cont’d) Table 2.6: Change in Extreme-Poverty Neighborhoods by Suburban Type, 2000 to 2005-2009

15. Section II: Racial, Ethnic, and Nativist Change

16. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) • goal: comparing the Washington Metropolitan Area to the Traditional [suburban] Model (Hanlon et al., 2006); • Black/African American population; • Latino population; • Non-Hispanic White population; • Young workers.

17. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.3: Census Tracts with Proportion Black/African American Population Greater Than One Positive Standard Deviation from Mean, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

18. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.4:Census Tracts with Proportion Black/African American Population Greater Than Two Positive Standard Deviations from Mean, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

19. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.7: Census Tracts with Latino Proportion of the Population Greater Than One Positive Standard Deviation, Washington, DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

20. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) Figure 4.8: Census Tracts with Latino Proportion of the Population Greater Than Two Positive Standard Deviations, Washington DC Metropolitan Area, 2010

21. The Washington DC Metropolitan Region – Traditional No More? (Carolyn Gallaher) (cont’d) • Washington MSA departs from Traditional Model (Hanlon et al. (2006); • clusters of Black/African Americans are more likely to be located in suburban locates than inside city limits (86.81% located in Prince George’s County); • clusters of Latinos are located in the inner suburbs; • non-Hispanic White share of population in many DC tracts grew very rapidly 2000 – 2010; • young workers cluster in DC and in inner/first suburbs (Arlington, VA; Alexandria, VA)

22. Section III: Suburban Decline – or Not?

23. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) • examine patterns of inner-ring suburban change for the 100 largest U.S. metropolitan areas, focusing on metropolitan growth patterns and urban containment policies; Figure 7.1: Transformation of the Metropolitan Spatial Structure and Inner-Ring Suburbs

24. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.2: Metropolitan Growth Patterns and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline

25. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.3: Trends of Relative Per Capita Income (PCI) for the 100 Largest CBSAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

26. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.4: Trends in the Poverty Rate for the 100 Largest CSBAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

27. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Figure 7.6: Ratio of the College-Educated Population to the Average for the 100 Largest CBSAs by Subarea (1970 – 2007)

28. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) • hypothesis: urban containment policy or the level of urban sprawl plays a role in the decline of inner-ring suburban communities; • 34 metropolitan areas with urban containment policies • 66 metropolitan areas non-urban containment policies • sprawl index: 0 (lowest sprawl) to 100 (highest sprawl)

29. Metropolitan Growth Pattern and Inner-Ring Suburban Decline: A Longitudinal Analysis for the 100 Largest U.S. Metropolitan Areas (Sugie Lee, Nancey Green Leigh, and Andrew McMillan) (cont’d) Table 7.7: Sprawl Index Trends by Containment Type for the 100 Largest CBSAs (1970 – 2007), abbreviated by editor for presentation (0 = lowest sprawl)

30. Section V: Suburban Policy

31. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) • Three research questions: • What is the demand for social services in the suburbs, and how is it changing? • What challenges do service providers encounter to operating programs in the suburbs? • How do nonprofits respond to these challenges? • Three case studies: • Chicago; • Los Angeles; • Washington, DC.

32. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Tables 11.7, 11.8: Poverty Rates, 2000-2005-09, Los Angeles and Chicago MSA

33. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Table 11.9: Poverty Rates, 2000-2005-09, Washington, DC MSA

34. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) • Changes, Demands, and Challenges for Social Service Providers • Increased and Shifting Demand; • Immigrant Communities; • The Search for Affordable Office Space; • Funding

35. The Response of the Nonprofit Safety Net to Rising Suburban Poverty (Benjamin Roth and Scott Allard) (cont’d) Table 11.11: Type of Coping Strategy Being Considered for Coming Year

36. www.ashgate.com50BMK14N (order code) kanacker@gmu.edu