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Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation

Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation. José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra. The three stages of the crises. The financial stage (Mar. 2008 – Dec. 2008) Main concern: stability of the financial system.

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Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation

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  1. Portugal: the impact of ‘anti-crises measures’ and the socio-economic situation José Castro Caldas Centro de Estudos Sociais Universidade de Coimbra

  2. The three stages of the crises The financial stage (Mar. 2008 – Dec. 2008) Main concern: stability of the financial system

  3. The three stages of the crisis The economic stage (Dec. 2008 – Feb. 2010) Main concern: recession

  4. The three stages of the crises The fiscal stage (Feb. 2010 - present) Main concern: Stability of the euro

  5. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage I • Third quarter 2008: “Iniciativa de ReforçodaEstabilidadeFinanceira, IREF)”: • Acountability of financian institutions • Deposit garanties • State garanties to banks

  6. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage II • Jan. 2009: “Iniciativapara o Investimento e o Emprego” (anti-cyclical, expancionay measures, 0,8 % GDP): • (Fiscal) support to home owners; • Anti-poverty allowances • Family allowances • (Fiscal) support to firms • Rehabilitation of public schools • Technologic infrastructure • Financial support to exporting SME • Emplument

  7. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III • Mar. 2010: PEC I • May. 2010: PEC II • Sep. 2010: PEC III • Mar. 2011: PEC IV (rejected, government resigns) • Apr. 2011: IMF/EU/ECB Memorandum • June 2011: Elections (new majority)

  8. Anti-crisis measures in Portugal: stage III • Fiscal consolidation: • Increase tax revenue: tax rates, special income taxes, tax benefits • Reduce public spending: cuts in public servant payroll, decrease pensions, increase public services access rates and regional coverage • Privatization • Structural adjustment: • Reduce unemployment benefits, generalize means testing, flexibilise labor legislation

  9. The impact of anti-crisis measures (cyclical)

  10. Trend 1: High public deficit

  11. Trend 1: High Public Deficit

  12. Trend 2: Increasing Public Debt

  13. Trend 2: Increasing Public Debt

  14. Trend 3: escalating unemployment

  15. Trend 4: Decrease of the n. of people with access to protection

  16. Trend 5: Increasing inequalities Social Europe, 2011, The Distributional Effects of Austerity Measures: a comparison of Six Countries, Research Note 2/2011

  17. Trend 6: Delegitimisation of democratic rule • Opinion Poll Februray 2012: • 62% (32 % in >September) desaprove the government • 73% “there is no better alternative” • 40% “austerity will not solve the problem”

  18. Conclusion • The scenario inscribed in these trends: • Deep recession compromising the objectives of deficit and debt containment, and precipitating an unprecedented social crisis. • Political or democratic representation crisis with unpredictable consequences .

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