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Impact of analysis at a number of levels

Welfare to Work Policy: the use of evidence and analysis Jonathan Portes Director, Children and Poverty/Chief Economist Department of Work and Pensions. Impact of analysis at a number of levels. Theory Programme philosophy and approach Programme evaluation. Theoretical framework.

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Impact of analysis at a number of levels

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  1. Welfare to Work Policy: the use of evidence and analysis Jonathan PortesDirector, Children and Poverty/Chief EconomistDepartment of Work and Pensions

  2. Impact of analysis at a number of levels • Theory • Programme philosophy and approach • Programme evaluation

  3. Theoretical framework • Modified neoclassical – based on the NAIRU • Unemployment/inactivity is a supply-side phenomenon (given stable demand) • Essentially all adults are potentially in labour force

  4. And you need theory.. • Your only weapon against anecdote.. • The lump of labour fallacy never dies..

  5. A8 Migrants and unemployment

  6. Rationale for active labour market policies • Incentives – hence compulsory jobsearch • Capital constraints – hence training • Information failures – hence guidance, signposting

  7. Does it work? Yes… • Incentives – hence compulsory jobsearch. Works for mainstream JSA clients. • Capital constraints – hence training. Not cost-effective in the UK (WBLA) • Information failures – hence guidance, signposting. Very successful for inactive clients (NDLP, PtW).

  8. NDYP impact: time on benefit

  9. NDLP: Impact analysis • Employment rate increased by nearly 10% • Analysis suggests about half of this due to policy action • NDLP cost-benefit analysis suggests (short-run) benefits twice costs

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