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Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List

Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List. Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service. Overview. Background List Development Cycle 2002 Census Coverage Results Census Coverage Goals Steps to Meet Established Goals List Building Results

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Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List

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  1. Development of the 2007 Census of Agriculture Mail List Stan Hoge and Bill Iwig National Agricultural Statistics Service

  2. Overview • Background • List Development Cycle • 2002 Census Coverage Results • Census Coverage Goals • Steps to Meet Established Goals • List Building Results • Suggestions for the 2012 CML

  3. Background • NASS has responsibility for an annual agricultural survey program and the Census of Agriculture every five years. • The NASS list frame supports both programs requiring: • Adequate production coverage and accurate control data for the survey programs. • Adequate farm coverage for the census. • List development is an on-going process involving adding new records and updating current records.

  4. List Development Cycle New List Sources Annual Survey Program Census Mail List

  5. 2002 Census Coverage Results

  6. 2002 Census Coverage Results

  7. 2002 Census Coverage ResultsCoverage Adjustment of Total Number of Farms

  8. Census Coverage Goals • Increase minority farm coverage from 68% to 73%. • Maintain coverage of farms with $50,000 or more in agricultural sales at 95%. • Reach at least 75% coverage of all farms for all States. • Set a Target CML Size = 3.1 million records.

  9. CML Size vs. Farm Coverage

  10. Steps to Meet Established Goals • Aggressive list-building guided by annual Field Office (FO) list-building plans. • Outreach to minority and socially disadvantaged farm operators. • Introduction of the Agricultural Identification Survey (AIS). • Improvements to record-linkage processing. • Set State level target CMLs.

  11. Census List Development by Source, 2002 and 2007

  12. Minority Counts (U.S.) List Control vs. Census Adjusted

  13. Agriculture Identification Survey Results(Screener for Potential Farms) 1/ Response with dataand available for CML

  14. Set State-level CML Targets • Allocation of U.S. Target CML (3.1 million). • Based on State coverage history, population distribution and current farm number estimates. • Provided guide to FOs in managing list building. • Expect approximately 3.4 million available records so plan to trim marginal records for some States. • Potential farm records with probable bad addresses • Records from poor quality list sources • FO Input through CML Target Evaluation and Trim Plans • Records identified by Classification And Regression Trees Model (CART), based on percent active on survey frame.

  15. Suggestions for the 2012 CML • Analyze the effectiveness of available list sources. • Analyze the effectiveness of the AIS and the entire Census list-building process. • Provide firmer and earlier guidance to the FOs on list-building expectations. • Increase automation of record linkage as appropriate.

  16. END

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