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World Oil Consumption per Sector

INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZIL.

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World Oil Consumption per Sector

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  1. INICIATIVES IN TRANSPORT SECTOR WITH GHG EMISSION REDUCTION AS CO-BENEFIT: ANALYSIS OF FUEL EFFICIENCY,ETHANOL USE IN FLEX-FUEL VEHICLES AND THE BIODIESEL PROGRAM IN BRAZIL Workshop on “Integrated development and climate policies: How to realize benefits at national and international level?”Suzana Kahn RibeiroPROFESSOREngineering Transport ProgrammeFederal University of Rio de Janeiro- Brazil20-22 September 2006Paris

  2. World Oil Consumption per Sector 1973 +16% Other Sectors 25% Transport 42% 58% 42% Non Energy Use 6% Industry 2004 27% Other Sectors 15% Transport Non Energy Use 58% 17% Industry 10% TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE (IEA, 2006)

  3. WORLD OIL BY-PRODUCTS - 2004 43% of total energy final consumption = 3.2 Gtep; 40% CO2 emissions = 10.6 Gt; Transport sector consumption : 58% = 1.9 Gtep. TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE (IEA,2006) • Oil BY-PRODUCTS IN BRAZIL - 2004 • 40% of total energy final consumption = 71 Mtep; • Transport sector consumption: 61% = 43 Mtep. 96,7% Road 99,7% Road (MME,2005)

  4. TRANSPORT SECTOR RELEVANCE Transport Energy by Region (WBSD,2004)

  5. Oil dependency; Congestion; Poor air quality in urban centers. TRANSPORT RELATED PROBLEMS Solutions to these problems rely on: • Policies towards higher energy efficiency in transport as well as transport sector efficiency; • Transport policy towards energy matrix diversification.  Leading to a CO2 emission reduction as co-benefit.

  6. Fuel Efficiency Increase In the case of new light vehicles : Vehicle Labelling Program; In the case of light vehicle in use: Inspection/ Maintenance Program; In case of heavy duty vehicles: Inspection/ Maintenance Program. ANALYZED INITIATIVES • Oil Dependency Reduction • Increase in Hydrous Ethanol (sugar cane) consumption: Flex-Fuel technology; • Biodiesel (soybean) in heavy duty vehicles: National Biodiesel Program.

  7. DRIVING FORCES

  8. DRIVING FORCES Urban air quality improvement Gasoline and ethanol consumption reduction Health improvemnt

  9. DRIVING FORCES Urban air quality improvement Gasoline and ethanol consumption reduction Health improvement

  10. DRIVING FORCES Diesel oil consumption reduction; Maintenance cost reduction. Urban air quality improvement Imported oil dependency reduction Health improvement

  11. DRIVING FORCES Enhance Agribusiness; Reduce gasoline consumption; Promote sustainable regional development; Job Generation Renewable Fuel

  12. DRIVING FORCES Enhance Agribusiness; Reduce imported diesel dependency Promote sustainable regional development; Job Generation Energy matrix diversification Urban air quality improvement Health improvement

  13. Obtained Results Fuel Efficiency Increase Labelling Programe • Assumptions: • Vehicle labelling system proposed for the EU by the European Community Commission; • Light vehicles (gasoline) in São Paulo municipality; • Assessment period : 2000 to 2004. • Results: • Consumption of 141 million litres of gasoline could have been avoided. • Co-benefit: • Emission of 311M tons of CO2 could have been avoided.

  14. Obtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Light Vehicles • Considered Data: • Assessment period : 2002; • Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Area; • 1.616.273 Light Vehicles. • Results: • Avoided Emissions: 56,000 – 124,000 ton CO; • Avoided Gasoline : 73 -126 M liters; • Co-benefit: • Avoided Emissions : 0.207 – 0.354 M tons of CO2. (Petrobras, 2006)

  15. Obtained ResultsFuel Efficiency Increase Inspection/ Maintenance Program – Heavy Vehicles • Considered data: • Assessment period : 1996 – 2002 and 2003 -2005 • Buses and trucks (130,000 vehicles in 1996-2003) • 22 states in Brazil; • Results: • 1996-2003: 300 M liters/year of diesel and 18,000 ton/year of PM avoided; • 2003-2005: 321 M liters/year of diesel and 19,200 ton/year of PM avoided; • Co-benefit: • Avoided Emissions in 1996-2003: 0.80 M tons of CO2/year ; • Avoided Emissions in 2003-2005: 0.86 M tons of CO2/year. (Petrobras, 2006)

  16. Obtained Results Oil Dependency Reduction Flex-Fuel Technology • Assumptions: • Assessment period : 2003 to 2006; • Light vehicles in South East and South Region; • Results: • Avoided Gasoline: 8.3 – 9.9 Billion liters. • Co-benefit: • Avoided Emission: 23 - 27 M tons of CO2.

  17. Obtained Results Oil Dependency Reduction National Biodiesel Program • Assumptions: • Assessment period : 2005 to 2006; • Brazilian fleet fueled by mineral diesel consumes the mixture B2 of biodiesel from soybean and uses methanol in the chemical process. • Results: • Avoided Diesel: 1.2 Million liters. • Co-benefit: • Avoided Emission: 1.3 Mtons of CO2

  18. Flex-Fuel Technology ADVANTAGES OF THE FLEX FUEL CAR • Fuel supply flexibility ( price and availability ) • Smaller cost when provisioning with alcohol • Flexibility of provisioning (price and readiness) • Consumption will depend on: • cost difference between gasoline and alcohol • autonomy need

  19. Flex-Fuel Technology 1,525,943 74.8% 80% 812,104 70% 50.2% 60% 50% 328,379 40% 21.6% 30% 48,178 20% 3.7% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 July 2006 Share of Flex Fuel sales (ANFAVEA, 2006)

  20. Jan/2005 Jan/2008 Jan/2013 Biodiesel Brazilian National Biodiesel Program LAW 11.097/ 2005: establishes a minimum percentage of biodiesel mixture to the diesel and the penetration rate of biodiesel in the market Regulatory Mark for Biodiesel Law 11.097/05 Obligatory Mixture Authorized Mixture Obligatory Mixture Authorized Mixture + B5 B2 B2 UP TO B5 Phase2 Phase3 Phase 1 structuresthemarket Time needed to organize the productive chain consolidates the market regulates the market 1 billion of liters/ year 2,4 billion of liters/ year 800 million of liters/ year A specific taxation was established

  21. Area needed to supply biodiesel (B5) @ 3 million hectares (NAE, 2005); • There are about 90 million hectares available for agricultural expansion regarding different raw materials to produce biofuels, just in the western area. (million hectares) Agriculture..................... 137 Livestock....................... (35) Permanent crops.......... (10) Forest............................. (2) Available Area................90 Brazilian National Biodiesel Program AGRICULTURAL EXPANSION – PRESENT SITUATION AND POTENTIAL GROWTH

  22. CONCLUSIONS • It should be noted that the Brazilian initiatives on fuel efficiency and biofuels in the transport sector, meet, without jeopardizing the growing transport activity, their main objectives: • Oil dependency reduction; • Air quality improvement; • Job generation. • Thus, as a co-benefit the CO2 emission reduction is also obtained.

  23. CONCLUSIONS • KEY MESSAGE In order to make transport policies more efficient in terms of CO2 emission reduction it is important to promote the quantification of such emissions together with the diffusion of these results .

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