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Anthony Perl

Preparing for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to Make the Most of Canada’s Coming Transport Revolutions. Anthony Perl. aperl@sfu.ca. Why will we launch a major redesign of our transport systems within 10 years ?. Because we have reached the end of the ‘Beverly Hillbillies’ oil story.

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Anthony Perl

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  1. Preparing for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to Make the Most of Canada’s Coming Transport Revolutions Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca

  2. Why will we launch a major redesign of our transport systems within 10 years ?

  3. Because we have reached the end of the ‘Beverly Hillbillies’ oil story Conventional oil was the ideal fuel for the 20th century American Dream, especially if one wasn’t thinking about the 21st century!

  4. Best Guess: Global Production Peak by 2012 Natural gas liquids Deepwater Polar Heavy oil (Tar Sands, etc.) Margin of error probably +/- 5 years

  5. Conventional wisdom: the mid-point of the world’s petroleum endowment gives plenty of time to plan adjustments

  6. Geological reality: the second half of the earth’s oil endowment is physically different

  7. Most of the world’s oil is left in remote and fragile places Polar oil test well Brazil’s Tupi field is almost 5 miles under the Atlantic, production cost >$80 a barrel.

  8. Risks and costs of producing this ‘extreme oil’ are much higher than the oil we have already burned

  9. A new energy infrastructure will be needed to extract and refine the remaining oil Fort Hills oil upgrader and Northern Gateway pipeline are Canadian examples

  10. Climate mitigation infrastructure would add even more costs, if we take it seriously CO2 capture costs billions, consumes 1/3 of the energy

  11. What if we could avoid pouring trillions into new oil production facilities, by investing in infrastructure that avoids the need for oil?

  12. We can move people and freight without oil by launching transport revolutions This is not a transport revolution

  13. What is a transport revolution? • A substantial changein a society’s transport activity —moving people or moving freight, or both — that occurs in less than 25 years. • Substantial change means a 50% increase or decrease in transport activity or use of a new means of transport becomes part of the lives of 10% of the society’s population.

  14. Transport revolutions will arrive whether we are ready or not because: Oil products power ~95% of global mobility

  15. Breaking the world’s oil addiction can only occur by reducing the flow through motorized vehicles

  16. The most positive transport revolution outcomes would draw on three proven paths to a post-carbon future: • GREATER use of electric motors, replacing internal combustion engines • GREATER use of rail and water, replacing road and air • GREATER use of collectively managed, replacing personally managed transport

  17. Electric mobility is the key to energy transition because it can blend different renewable sources …

  18. And use them to incrementally replace nonrenewable energy sources

  19. We have mature technology for post-carbon intercity land travel High-speed rail has been up and running since 1964

  20. China’s high-speed rail revolution is a game changer In 5 years, China will have doubled the world’s HSR infrastructure.

  21. And the Chinese won’t stop there 2021: London – Beijing by Train in 2 Days

  22. China’s HSR manufacturing capacity will cut bullet train costs by 50% or more.

  23. Electric railways also offer proven technology for moving freight inland

  24. Wind power can boost the world’s most efficient mobility mode • 90% of the world trade moves by water • Marine transport is already the most carbon-efficient way of moving • SkySail’ technology can reduce marine transport’s oiluse by 50 – 80%

  25. Mobility modes that cannot run without oil will see more radical changes

  26. Hauling freight around N. America uses more oil than moving it between continents The economic risks of leaving oil dependent transport in place are high.

  27. Best case scenario: new technology can cut aviation fuel use by 50% This isn’t enough to keep ‘low cost’ air carriers aloft

  28. Aviation as a ‘mass transportation’ mode has begun drawing to a close ‘Buses with wings’ will either be replaced by cars, buses and trains for trips under 1,000 kilometres, or …

  29. We’ll see a sudden collapse in flying and driving

  30. How do we gear up for post carbon mobility? • New plans • New policy tools • New leadership

  31. Step 1: We have to set aside outdated plans for a future that will never arrive Will Rogers once advised America that to get out of a hole, the first thing one has to do is: ! STOP DIGGING !

  32. Why is this so hard to do? For every 10,000 engineers who can design highways and airports, there might be one who can develop an electric railroad

  33. This imbalance yields a distorted vision – such as seeking new fuels for the same vehicles and infrastructure

  34. While ignoring the electric vehicles that already provide post carbon mobility

  35. Step 2: Launch a planning process for sustainable transportation will help us use the remaining oil wisely Set the key parameter - how much to reduce liquid petroleum fuel use in transport between start and end of the plan. Estimate current transport activity and energy use. Anticipate future available modes and energy use. Develop a plausible balance of future modes that reflects desired activity levels and energy use. Continually refine and improve energy use estimates and proposals for transport activity.

  36. Sustainable Oil Consumption

  37. Target Goal: 40% Less Oil Used To Move Americans by 2025

  38. What Would a US Rail Renaissance Cost? • $1 trillion would buy around 25,000 km of HSR, just over 15,500 miles • $1 trillion more needed to electrify conventional lines. • $280 billion per year for completely oil-free mobility infrastructure • 2% of GDP per year

  39. Step 3: Draw up the policy tools for implementing post-carbon mobility and use them • Introduce fiscal options that move beyond ‘road socialism’ • Enable public-private partnerships through infrastructure condominiums • Encourage carbon sunsets through acquiring and repurposing ‘stranded assets’

  40. Monetizing urban road use opens the vault for post-carbon infrastructure

  41. Between Cities, a Divide Needs to be Bridged Between Public Roads and Private Rails

  42. New Electric Mobility Corridors WillRequire an ‘Infrastructure Condominium’

  43. What about stranded assets? Many large airports are only connected to cities and surrounding regions by road

  44. Lyon St. Exupery is not an airport; it is a Travel-port Many European airports are prepared to shift from air to rail

  45. There has been a public spending spree on carbon mobility producers that are ‘too big to fail’ What can we show for it?

  46. GM built the ‘Train of Tomorrow’ in 1947 This photo is the only train product that GM now sells

  47. While China supplies fast trains, GM could return to building other trains and buses

  48. Leadership is a key ingredient in successful Transport Revolutions

  49. The Man Who Told Detroit What Had to Change, Before it was Too Late • Donald Nelson appointed Chair of the War Production Board on January 16, 1942 • WPB Production Order #1 canceled civilian auto production on February 10, 1942

  50. America’s Great Pause in Motorization Followed in 1942 – 43 • 3.8 million autos produced in 1941 • 143 autos produced in 1943 Gas and tire rationing yielded 40%vkm drop in two years

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