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Anthony Perl

Planning for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to make the most out of coming Transport Revolutions. Anthony Perl. aperl@sfu.ca. Why will we see a major redesign of our transport systems within 10 years ?. Because we have reached the end of the ‘Beverly Hillbillies’ oil story.

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Anthony Perl

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  1. Planning for Post-Carbon Mobility: How to make the most out of coming Transport Revolutions Anthony Perl aperl@sfu.ca

  2. Why will we see a major redesign of our transport systems within 10 years ?

  3. Because we have reached the end of the ‘Beverly Hillbillies’ oil story Conventional oil was the ideal fuel for the 20th century N. American Dream, especially when it came to moving freight and passengers

  4. Conventional wisdom: the mid-point of the world’s petroleum endowment gives plenty of time to plan adjustments

  5. Geological reality: the second half of the earth’s oil endowment is physically different

  6. Producing this ‘extreme oil’ involves much higher risks, costs and conflict than the oil we have already burned through

  7. A new energy infrastructure will be needed to extract and refine extreme oil Fort Hills oil upgrader and Northern Gateway pipeline are Canadian examples

  8. Climate mitigation infrastructure would add major costs CO2 capture costs billions, consumes 1/3 of the energy

  9. How much money and energy will be available to maintain global oil production? Less than most people think.

  10. Only if we fast track transport systems that can perform without oil Could we cope with a rapid reduction in carbon- fueled mobility?

  11. Moving people and freight without oil will necessitate transport revolutions This is not a transport revolution

  12. What is a transport revolution? • A substantial changein a society’s transport activity —moving people or moving freight, or both — that occurs in less than 25 years. • Substantial change means a 50% increase or decrease in transport activity or use of a new means of transport becomes part of the lives of 10% of the society’s population.

  13. Transport revolutions will lead, not lag, our energy transition because: Oil products power ~95% of global mobility

  14. Breaking the world’s oil addiction can only occur by reducing its flow through internal combustion engines

  15. The most promising transport revolutions would follow three paths to a post-carbon future: • GREATER use of electric motors, replacing internal combustion engines • GREATER use of rail and water, replacing road and air • GREATER use of collectively managed travel, replacing personally managed travel

  16. Electric mobility is the key to energy transition because it can blend multiple renewable sources …

  17. To incrementally replace nonrenewable energy sources

  18. Transportation modes that can only run on oilwillneed to be backstopped first

  19. Best case scenario: new technology can cut aviation fuel use by another 50% This won’t be enough to keep flying cheap

  20. Aviation as a ‘mass transportation’ mode is running on borrowed time ‘Buses with wings’ will be replaced by electric cars, buses and trains for most trips under 800 miles, or ….

  21. We could be in for some ‘interesting’ transport revolutions

  22. High-speed rail is running late,but could keep America moving A mature technology, up and running since 1964 with ZERO fatalities in Japan!

  23. China’s high-speed rail revolution is well under way & a game changer In 5 years, China will have doubled the world’s HSR capacity.

  24. China’s HSR manufacturing capacity will cut bullet train costs by 50% or more.

  25. Long-haul trucking is another mode facing the sharp edge of post-carbon pressures Trucks need more oil to move freight within North America than is used getting it to this continent

  26. Wind power can boost the world’s most energy efficient mobility • 90% of the world trade moves by water • Marine transport is already the most carbon-efficient way of moving • SkySail’ technology can reduce marine transport’s oiluse by 50 – 80%

  27. Electric railways offer proven technology for moving freight inland

  28. U.S. Rail Renaissance Cost Estimate • $1 trillion would buy a 15,500 mile HSR network • $1 trillion more needed to electrify conventional lines. • $280 billion per year to arrive at post-carbon intercity mobility • 2% of GDP for 15 years

  29. How can the U.S. gear up for post carbon mobility? • New priorities • New skills • New policy

  30. Step 1: Set aside plans for a future that will never arrive Will Rogers once advised America that to get out of a hole, the first thing one has to do is: STOP DIGGING !

  31. Why is this so hard to do? For every 10,000 engineers who can design highways and airports in the US, there might be one who can electrify a railroad

  32. This imbalance skews the vision of transport options – i.e, seeking new fuels for the same vehicles and infrastructure

  33. While ignoring the electric vehicles that already provide post carbon mobility

  34. Step 2: Launch a Transportation Redevelopment Agency to guide major change • Modeled on Reconstruction Finance Corporation & US Railroad Association • Chaired by Vice President • Board includes secretaries of Defense, Energy and Transportation • Work with the innovative committees of the Transportation Research Board

  35. TRA Needs an Energy-First Planning Framework Set the key parameter - how much to reduce liquid petroleum fuel use in transport between start and end of the plan. Estimate current transport activity and energy use. Anticipate future available modes and energy use. Develop a plausible strategy for deploying future modes that meet desired activity and energy use. Continually refine and improve energy use estimates and proposals for transport activity.

  36. Example: 40% Less Oil Used To Move Americans by 2025

  37. Step 3: Deploy and use the policy tools for implementing post-carbon mobility • Introduce fiscal options that move beyond ‘road socialism’ • Enable public-private partnerships through infrastructure condominiums • Encourage carbon sunsets through acquiring and repurposing ‘stranded assets’

  38. Pricing road use opens the vault to fund post-carbon infrastructure

  39. Between Cities, a Divide Needs to be Bridged Between Public Roads and Private Rails

  40. New Electric Mobility Corridors WillRequire an ‘Infrastructure Condominium’

  41. What about stranded assets? Mega airports are designed to connect travel between planes, cars and trucks will not be hold their value.

  42. Lyon St. Exupery is not an airport; it is a Travelport Many European airports are prepared to shift from air to rail

  43. There has been a public spending spree on carbon mobility producers that are ‘too big to fail’ What do taxpayers have to show for these billions ?

  44. GM used to build trains and buses Does anybody involved in auto restructuring understand the value of buses and trains compared to Hummers and SUVs?

  45. GM built this ‘Train of Tomorrow’ in 1947 This photo is the only train product that GM now sells

  46. Transport revolutions will arise –whether we are ready or not The sooner we recognize obsolete plans and outdated priorities for our future, the greater the chance of a happy ending.

  47. To find out more: For further information on post-carbon mobility, visit: www.transportrevolutions.info

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