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Enhanced Estimation of Personal Transfers in the UK Household Survey

This study aims to improve estimates of personal transfers in the UK through a comprehensive household survey, integrating qualitative research to design a quantitative approach. The survey, part of the Integrated Household Survey (IHS), will provide valuable insights into remittance patterns and scales, contributing to Balance of Payment statistics and International Development policy.

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Enhanced Estimation of Personal Transfers in the UK Household Survey

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  1. Estimating Personal Transfers Planning a Household survey in the UK Stuart Brown Office for National Statistics, UK June 2009

  2. Background in the UK • personal transfers can be sent and received via • banks • money transfer companies • unofficial channels • no bank reporting data available • many money transfer companies • many communities likely to remit, many corridors • but not all potential remitters live in communities • receivers of personal transfers spread throughout UK

  3. Background in the UK • qualitative research indicates significant use of informal channels • and larger total amounts sent and received than official figures show • current estimates not based on robust methodology • recognised as important components for BoP statistics and International Development policy

  4. Broad UK figures for personal transfers £ billion

  5. UK Household survey • best approach for UK • qualitative research • help develop a quantitative survey design • very useful for broad information on patterns and scale • national statistics based on statistical surveys • opportunity offered by a new Integrated Household Survey (IHS) • IHS integrates various Government household surveys into one continuous survey • greater harmonisation of concepts, classifications, questions and outputs • Core questionnaire and Modules

  6. Structure of the IHS Labour Force and Population Core Sample Size General Lifestyle Living Costs & Food Interview Length

  7. IHS: Annual Sample Size by Module

  8. Design of IHS Sample Size • achieved annual household interviews (core): 207,000 • target response rate: around 60% Sample Frame • Postal Address file: 100% coverage of every address in UK Sample Design • addresses stratified geographically by postcode • systematic, unclustered sample of addresses for Core • Some modules are clustered for the time being

  9. Sample size estimate for Remittances Based on very broad estimates from Census, Migration statistics and Labour Force surveys: • 6.6m foreign-born people in UK • 55% of these are potential remitters • qualitative research indicates 25% potential h/holds are likely to remit • target achieved sampling fraction of IHS Core is around 1 in 120 h/holds • so aiming for an annual sample size of remitting h/holds of around 4000 h/holds • should be adequate for reliable aggregate estimates

  10. Sample size estimate continued • could be fewer: people grouped by h/holds • could be more: 2nd, 3rd generation remitters born in UK • harder to estimate figures for receiving h/holds • not in communities • use partner country data • but we need to get questions on the Core questionnaire

  11. Questions on Personal Transfers • limited number of questions on IHS for each module • space on questionnaire is tight, particularly on Core • many Government Departments are sponsoring survey • all very new, period of settling down • pilot questions on • recipient/sender and country • frequency and amounts also • channels used • proposed use of the funds

  12. Estimating total Personal Transfers • from IHS we aim to estimate • average annual amount sent/received per sending/receiving household, and • proportion of total household population sending/receiving • apply these to population totals (maybe different for different migrant communities) or • the IHS weighting may include the population data so may be able to use the data direct from the IHS

  13. Timeline and Costs 6 months: qualitative research, develop questions 6 months: test, pilot questions ready for IHS 1 year: fieldwork 6 months: first annual estimates set up costs: £75K to develop the questions, pilot them and incorporate them into the HIS questionnaire annual running costs: £0.5m for fieldwork, processing and analysis

  14. Funding is difficult but there might be some alternatives: • feasibility of a UK Migration Survey being assessed, targetting relevant population • use household questions already tested in other countries (H/hold Survey Network Question Bank) • put into Omnibus module for a year: cheap and quicker, small achieved sample (maybe 250-300 remitting housholds a year) but at least some broad estimates could be made

  15. Longer term plans • probably benchmark estimates on IHS every 5 years: a rotating Core is envisaged • update for quarters/years in between using migration figures, population estimates, propensity proportions based on HIS • cross-Government programme to improve migration statistics • investigate any data available from bank systems, money transfer companies, partner countries to validate/update survey estimates • important to keep up with developments in other countries

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