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Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change The San Pedro Basin Study Case. Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird , Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III. Evaluate range of potential impacts of climate change projections on the hydrology of the Basin.
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Modeling Hydrological Impacts of Climate ChangeThe San Pedro Basin Study Case Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B Valdes, Javier Gonzalez, Kate Baird, Luis J. Mata, Thomas Maddock III
Evaluate range of potential impacts of climate change projections on the hydrology of the Basin. Include range of results in DSS model of the San Pedro Basin to support local policy actions Scope of the Research
San Pedro Basin: Growing population, development pressure Unsustainable aquifer pumping Endangering Riparian National Conservation Area (SPRNCA) Congress mandate: “safe yield” by 2011 Mountain Front Recharge 100 year effect propagation Alluvial Recharge Relevance
Hydro-climatology Adapted from Comrie and Glenn (1998)
Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Methods
17 Global Climate Models: Mean & 4 extreme modelswettest, driest, hottest, coldest (*) (WM-95, ECH-395, CERF-98, CCSR-96) . (*) Using the regional mean. GCMs and Scenarios • 4 Emission Scenarios: • IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A1 MES, A2 MES, B1 MES, B2 MES.
Temperature projections: Scenarios A1 &A2 73.4 F 70 F 65 F
Temperature projections: Scenarios B1 &B2 70.7 F 68 F 65 F
Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Downscaling Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Outline
Yearly estimates 5x5 deg. latlong 1/8x1/8 deg. latlong
From RAIN to RECHARGEUsing Anderson (1992): Experimental Regression Method For each of the 4 scenarios
Regional Precipitation Estimates GCM Models MF Recharge ET Local Recharge Data “Adaptation” Alluvial Recharge GW Hydrologic Model Outline
Hydrologic Model ET MF Recharge Channel Recharge
Hydrologic Model of the San Pedro Basin (by Goode, Maddock, Baird 2000) Run for 2000-2100 using current pumping rates Decreasing recharge rates implemented Long Term Hydrologic Response Hydrologic Model Runs Hydrologic Model • Hydrologic Model of the San Pedro Basin (by Goode, Maddock, Baird 2000) • Run for 2000-2100 using current pumping rates • Decreasing recharge rates implemented Long Term Hydrologic Response
Key questions: • How is climate change affecting SEASONAL and SPATIAL patterns ? • How can we quantify/model these changes ? • Key needs: • Accurate methods to quantify seasonal recharge • Inclusion of temperature effects on evapotranspiration • Compare effects with different basins (regimes)