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UKCP09 Case Study Next Steps??

UKCP09 Case Study Next Steps??. Presentation Structure. Background Key Findings Recommendations Over to you (with bits in-between?). How the UK’s climate is likely to change in the 21st century http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/ UKCP09 products, guidance and advice: Key findings

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UKCP09 Case Study Next Steps??

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  1. UKCP09 Case StudyNext Steps??

  2. Presentation Structure • Background • Key Findings • Recommendations • Over to you (with bits in-between?)

  3. How the UK’s climate is likely to change in the 21st century http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/ UKCP09 products, guidance and advice: Key findings Pre prepared maps and graphs Science reports (observed and future) Customisable information create own maps or graphs access the underlying data use the analytical tools UK Climate Projections (UKCP09)

  4. Methodology UKCP09 Customisable Data • High Emissions Scenario • 2020’s and 2050’s • Monthly data • 46 South West 25km grid squares • 10, 50 and 90% probability level Tourism Climate Index (Mieczkowski , 1985) • Quantitative evaluation of a regions’ climate for the purpose of general tourism activity • Based on the notion of “human comfort”

  5. Sampling Methodology We chose the 50% probability level - this value is “as likely as not” to occur The 10% and 90% probability level should not necessary be considered to be extreme values. It is within the distribution possibility and the range should be illustrated. We need to investigate more than one probability level within the high emission scenario. This would be relatively easy and we could see what the sensitivity of the TCI is to the probability level.

  6. The Tourism Climate Index TCI = 8CID + 2CIA + 4R + 4S + 2W 5 sub-indices, which are based on 7 climate variables:

  7. TCI Category Thresholds

  8. UK Climate Projections 2009 Tourism Climatic Index

  9. UKCP09 -Threshold Detector The occurrence for heavy rain could be 4.5 times more likely to happen in January, 3.3 times more likely in February and 1.8 times in November. Heatwave incidents affecting the month of July could be as high as 1.7 each year.

  10. Evidence of Impact • Serviced accommodation room occupancy • Bournemouth (Heatwave , August 2003) Gloucestershire (Floods, July 2007) • Comparison over a number of years clearly shows a change in visitor numbers at the time of the incidents • Source: South West Tourism Serviced Accommodation Occupancy survey, BDRC Serviced

  11. Questions and Discussion • How helpful was this work and how should we use it? • Produce some clear information for use by Destinations – what does this all mean? • What do we need to explore further? • Considering the recommendations which areas are a priority? • Overlay with tourism and other key data sets? • Any other investigations needed around the TCI/BCI or with the threshold detector? • All of the 25km grid squares? • Medium emissions level? • Book chapter!

  12. Thank you! Emma WhittleseaSustainability Strategistewhittlesea@swtourism.org.ukVisit:http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/688/521/

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