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Where We Fit Into NCEP’s Model Suite Items in BROWN are MMB’s worry

Hurricane GFDL HWRF ( NMM ). Where We Fit Into NCEP’s Model Suite Items in BROWN are MMB’s worry. CLIMATE CFS. Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III. Coupled. GFS + MOM3/4. ~3.5B Obs / Day. ‘Mostly’ Satellite +Radar. North American Mesoscale NMM. Dispersion, Ash, Smoke & Dust

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Where We Fit Into NCEP’s Model Suite Items in BROWN are MMB’s worry

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  1. Hurricane GFDL HWRF (NMM) Where We Fit Into NCEP’s Model SuiteItems in BROWN are MMB’s worry CLIMATE CFS Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Coupled GFS + MOM3/4 ~3.5B Obs / Day ‘Mostly’ Satellite +Radar North American Mesoscale NMM Dispersion, Ash, Smoke & Dust ARL’s HYSPLIT Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Severe Weather NMM + ARW Regional Data Assimilation Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Air Quality NMM + ARW + ETA + RSM NAM + EPA/ ARL’s CMAQ North American Ensemble Forecast System GFS + Canadian Global +… Rapid Update for Aviation GSD’s RUC Very Short Range Ensemble Forecasts Time-Lagged RUC+NAM

  2. NAM WRF-NMM (Egrid) GSI analysis 4/Day = 6 hr update Forecasts to 84 hours 12 km horizontal 60 layers with 2 mb top 12 hr pre-forecast assimilation period with 3hr updates (catch-up) RUC Non-WRF RUC model RUC 3DVAR analysis 24/Day = hourly update Forecasts to 18 hours 13 km horizontal 50 layers with 50 mb top Continuous forward cycle with no pre-forecast assimilation period 2009 RUC-13 CONUS domain

  3. NAM NEMS based NMM Bgrid replaces Egrid Parent remains at 12 km Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr ~4 km CONUS nest ~6 km Alaska nest ~3 km HI & PR nests,and/or a~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET are possible Rapid Refresh WRF-based ARW NCEP’s GSI analysis Expanded 13 km Domain to include Alaska Experimental 3 km HRRR 2010-2011 WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010 RUC-13 CONUS domain Original CONUS domain Experimental 3 km HRRR

  4. NAM/Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (NRRE) NEMS-based NMMB & ARW prediction models Both initialized with same GSI analysis code Common NAM parent domain at 10-12 km Initially ~6 member ensemble made up of equal numbers of NMMB- & ARW-based configurations Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours NMMB & ARW control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour pre-forecast period (catch-up) with hourly updating NAM 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z, & 18z runs. 2012-2013

  5. High Resolution Rapid Refresh ENSEMBLE (HRRRE) Each member of NRRE contains 3 km CONUS and Alaskan nests Control runs initialized with radar data Positions NWS+NCEP+ESRL to Provide NextGen Enroute A N D Terminal guidance Provide PROBABILITY guidance Improve assimilation capabilities with radar & satellite Tackle Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve towards ~1 km NAM nests are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z & 18Z runs. Both NRRE and HRRRE Require Bigger NCEP Computer 2012-2013

  6. NCEP Production Suite Weather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems NEXTGEN Enhanced Version 2017.5 100 90 Marine 80 Refcst HUR/HRW 70 GFSfcst 60 NAMfcst Percent Used SREF 50 GEFS CFS 40 GRDAS ENRanal ENRfcst 30 H O U R L Y Terminal 20 E N R O U T E 10 0 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 Two 3 Hour Cycles: Four Times-Per-Day A Possible Production Suite 2017.5 If NextGen Supports It Marine Marine GFS GFS Hurricane/HRW Reforecast Reforecast GEFS GEFS NAM NAM CFS CFS SREF SREF GRDAS GRDAS T E R M I N A L

  7. CONUS, Alaskan & FireWx Nests Imbedded in NAM Parent PARENT CHILD2 GRANDCHILD1 CHILD1

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