2014 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, and Hurricanes
Introduction Today’s weather outlook is intended to offer a preliminary look at the summer temperature and precipitation potential. We’ll learn how this may impact the current drought in Texas. And we’ll see if the hurricane season can offer any assistance.
Objectives At the completion of this course of instruction you will: • Identify the summer month, which has experienced above normal temperatures each of the past six years. • Recognize which major city is most likely to experience above normal temperatures this coming summer, and which is most likely to experience below normal • Be able to identify the historical year that is being applied as the primary historical match (analog) for the summer of 2014. • Be able to identify the driest summer on record for Texas as a whole. • Recognize the total combined number of tropical storms and hurricanes (named storms) expected in the Gulf of Mexico in 2014.
Repeat of 2011? Precipitation: Winter 2010-11 Precipitation: Winter 2013-14 Precipitation: Spring 2011 Precipitation: Spring 2014
Repeat of 2011? Temperature: Spring 2014 Temperature: Spring 2011
Repeat of 2011? Summer 2011 86.7° Summer 1980 84.3° 2.4 degree difference Same difference as 2nd to 41st (1980 to 1897)
Number of 100-degree Days for Select Texas Cities -- Wichita Falls: 100 days (1980) -- San Angelo: 98 days (60 days in 1969) -- Waco: 87 days (63 days in 1980) -- Houston: 46 days (32 in 1980) -- Austin (Mabry): 90 days (69 days in 1925) -- Abilene: 80 days (46 days in 1934) -- Dallas: 71 days (69 days in 1980) ERCOT Record Peak: 68,305MW August 3, 2011
Past Six Summers 2011: 1st hottest, 84.5° 2008: 82th hottest, 79.6° 2013: 24th hottest, 81.1° 2012: 15th hottest, 81.4° 2010: 13th hottest, 81.6° 2009: 40th hottest, 80.7° (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas)
Past Six Summers 2011: 1st driest, 3.65” 2008: 80th driest, 12.02” 2013: 71st driest, 11.44” 2012: 49th driest, 10.28” 2010: 104th driest, 13.98” 2009: 67th driest, 11.14” (POR 1895-current, Jun-Sep; all of Texas)
Summer 2014 temperature outlook
Building the Forecast • Winter temperature and precipitation patterns • Winter upper level steering currents • Winter sea surface temperature pattern • El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • PDO, AMO, PNA, WPO, EPO • Drought
Winter of 2013-14 30th Coldest Winter on Record in Texas (1895-current) 10th Driest Winter on Record in Texas
ENSO Past Six El Nino Events
Top Historical Matches 2009 1996 1957 1978 1994 1984 1986 1951 1990 2001
Summer Temperatures 2009 is being applied at the best historical match Latest set of historical years
Summer Temperatures Of the major Texas cities, San Antonio is most likely to experience above normal temperatures this summer. Dallas and Houston have increasing potential for below normal temperatures this summer
Summer Temperatures By month
June Temperatures 2013 1963 1967 1979 1996 2009 Top two analogs
June Temperatures This region (0 to +1) Could slip to 0 to -1. June has recorded above normal temperatures every month since 2008 – the past six years consecutively. The primary historical match, 2009, suggests a hot June, but most of the other historical matches are much milder.
July Temperatures July shows greater potential for above normal temperatures than any other summer month.
August Temperatures With the most recent updates, August has trended toward a significantly less hot (milder) look.
September Temperatures September shows the greatest likelihood for below normal temperatures. Overall, the back half of the summer shows more below normal opportunities than the front half.
Summer 2014 Precipitation outlook
ENSO Past Six El Nino Events
Top Historical Matches 2009 1996 1963 2013 1967 1979 1991 1951 1986 1957
Summer Precipitation Latest
Summer 2014 drought outlook
Drought Lake Travis Lake Travis at 34.8% of capacity Colorado River Basin at 26.0% Texas Reservoirs at 64.7%
Summer (and Fall) 2014 HURRICANE OUTLOOK
Hurricane Forecast Historical Averages Named Storms: 11.3 Hurricanes: 6.2 Major Hurricanes: 2.3
Hurricane Forecast ENSO is a strong factor in determining the Hurricane season (number and intensities). At this point, ENSO is neutral and likely to remain neutral into early- summer. At some point, summer or fall, El Niño development is possible.
Hurricane Forecast Factors in Determining Numbers and Intensities ENSO Saharan Dust Dry Air Vertical Wind Shear Ocean Temperatures
Hurricane Forecast What happened last year?
Hurricane Forecast What happened last year? MDA/EarthSat: 19/10/4 NOAA: 13-19/7-11/3-6 Colorado State University: 18/9/4 The Weather Channel: 16/9/5 Weather Underground: 18/11/5 ERCOT: 10/5/2 Normal: 11/6/2 2013 Actual: 14/2/0 Prior three seasons each had 19 named storms. Prior three seasons have each had a La Nina influence.