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2014 OUTLOOK

2014 OUTLOOK. Ray Grabanski Progressive Ag Fargo, ND Trading futures and options involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results. North Dakota Marketing Year Average Price. 2013 – IN REVIEW. 2013 – IN REVIEW. 2013 – IN REVIEW.

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2014 OUTLOOK

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  1. 2014 OUTLOOK Ray Grabanski Progressive Ag Fargo, ND Trading futures and options involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

  2. North Dakota Marketing Year Average Price

  3. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  4. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  5. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  6. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  7. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  8. 2013 – IN REVIEW

  9. Stocks Breakout to New Highs

  10. 10 year Monthly DJIA

  11. CORN

  12. Corn’s Issues Bigger than expected crop (158.8 bu) Demand Exports started poor/cancellation/improving Ethanol pace slowing EPA changing RFS 1.6 Million less Soft Red Acres

  13. Corn Exports To Date 22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go Sales need to average 9.3/Shipments 34.2

  14. USDA 2014 L-R Projections • 93.5 million acres, 86.1 hvstd. • 165.6 bu/acre yield • 14.26 billion bu crop • Ethanol 4.9 billion bu. • 2.6 billion carryout ($3.65) • But reduce 400 mb since Nov. (2.2 B)

  15. USDA 10 yr. projections • 2014-2018: $3.30-$3.65 • 2019-2024: $3.75-$4.20 • B/E now is $4.14 • Target Price is now $3.70

  16. Monthly corn: Consolidation?

  17. Weekly Chart: Bottoming???

  18. Mar 14 Corn: $4.45 sell July

  19. Dec 14 Corn: $4.65/$5.35?

  20. SAM Weather

  21. SOYBEAN

  22. Soybean Issues South America: Brazil: huge acres, 5 to 8% increase, early harvest good, getting hot south Argentina: hot dry conditions/improving US demand impressively strong Crush demand very strong meal demand main reason Exports very strong but China has huge

  23. Soybean Exports To Date 22 weeks into corn’s marketing year, 30 weeks to go Sales are over expectations/Shipments need 11.7

  24. Soybean Export Destinations

  25. USDA Baseline 2014 no’s • 78 million acres • 45.2 bu/acre yield • 3.480 billion bu crop • 203 million bu carryout ($9.75) • But reduced 20 mb after Nov. (183)

  26. USDA 10 yr. projections • 2014-2021: $8.85 to $9.75 • 2022-2024: $9.95 - $10.15 • Target price is $8.40

  27. Soybean Monthly: Downside Risk?

  28. Weekly: Consolidation???

  29. Mar 14 Sbns: inverted, sell

  30. Nov 14 Sbns: $11.65/$12.35

  31. Check Out Our Website www.progressiveag.com Daily Comments: User name: daily Password: heart Weekly Comments: User name: weekly Password: superbowl randy@progressiveag.com rwww.progressiveag.com

  32. WHEAT

  33. Wheat’s Issues - US US Winter Wheat going into dormancy at very good condition Exports started strong, slowing due to strong dollar Winter Wheat crop high quality Spring Wheat average quality, discounts Oct/Nov/Dec Crop Production Report BEARISH, not expected

  34. Wheat’s Issues - US US Winter Wheat Crop Condition Rating KS: 63% G/E 58% 35% OK: 77% G/E 63% 36% TX: 32% G/E 38/35/37% 19% CO: 55% G/E 18 States: 62% G/E Last Year: 33% G/E

  35. Winter Wheat Acres Down

  36. WW Acres

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