Prof Zhong NING Department of Economics, Shanghai Customs College

1. The Theoretical Framework of Customs Risk Management and Control Strategy under the Condition of Non-Traditional Security Prof Zhong NING Department of Economics, Shanghai Customs College School of Management, Fudan University Email: ningzhong@fudan.edu.cn Tel; 86-21-25011171 Contribute to 2008-WCO PICARD Conference May 16, 2008

2. 3 3 Research motivation 1 3 Literature review 2 Researchcontent Main conclusions 4 Agenda

3. The rising non-traditional security issues. The prosperous trade of imports and exports. The great significance of this research to customs management. Research motivation We would express our thanks to the support of R&D Innovative Project Sponsored by Shanghai Metroplis Edudtion Commission(08YZ198), Chinese State Natural Science Foundation (70573022)

4. literature Study on non-traditional security issues from WCO Customs risk management reengineering and the application of mathematical analysis tools in the customs Application study of risk management to customs in theUnited States and other developed countries. Literature Review

5. ResearchContent Proposing the theoretical framework of risk management under non-traditional security conditions Quantitative research on the most important risk identification and estimate in the customs risk management Main conclusions Doing an empirical study taking Shanghai Customs for example

6. Non-traditional Function Non-traditional Security Traditional Functions Port Management Smuggling and drug trafficking Intellectual Property terrorism monitoring taxation Anti-smuggling statistic Processing Trading Bonded Monitoring International Cooperation ．．．．．． Flow Chart of Customs Non-Traditional Functions

7. NTF Case Base Data Mining • Port Management System RAGA－AHP CBR Process Trading NTS Identification Characterization Assessment Control Bonded Monitoring NTF International Cooperation Mechanism Reengineering ．．．．．． Management Theoretical Framework of Non-Traditional Security characterization Asessment

8. Research Technology Roadmap Theoretical Framework Connotation confirmation Risk Classificationn Comparation Evolution Trend Qualitative and Quantitive Analysis Risk Indentification Based on Data Mining Effectiveness Test Characterilization Based on ARAGA－AHP Logic Analysis System of Identification and Assesment Astimatation Based on CBR Configuration Model Case study CBR Prototype System Positve Research NTF Transformation Risk Control Strategy Case Study on Shanghai Custom Reengineering to Custom Technology Roadmap

9. Proposing the theoretical framework of risk management security risks identification based on data mining. Main conclusions analysis of non-traditional security risk based on RAGA－AHP research on non-traditional security risk estimation based on CBR Doing an empirical study taking Shanghai for example Main conclusions

10. Thanks a lot for your attention and time!