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The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: Where are we going?

Sustainability Research Institute School of Earth and Environment. The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: Where are we going?. Dr Tim Foxon Sustainability Research Institute, and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds, UK. Overview.

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The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: Where are we going?

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  1. Sustainability Research Institute School of Earth and Environment The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan: Where are we going? Dr Tim Foxon Sustainability Research Institute, and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, School of Earth and Environment University of Leeds, UK

  2. Overview • Brief history of climate change targets and challenges for Copenhagen • UK Climate Change Act and targets for 2020 • UK Low Carbon Transition Plan and Renewable Energy Strategy • Beyond market solutions: A ‘Green New Deal’

  3. UN Climate Change Convention • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992): • to ‘stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a level that avoids dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system’ • ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ between industrialised and developing countries • Kyoto Protocol (1997) – industrialised countries agree to 5% reductions in GHG emissions relative to 1990 by 2008-12 • Few countries will achieve this target • UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 is aiming to achieve a ‘comprehensive, ambitious and fair international climate change deal’ to begin in 2013 • Prospects for a meaningful deal not looking good

  4. Drivers of climate change • Historically, industrialised countries have been responsible for majority of CO2 emissions (USA is still 25% of global emissions) • Emissions of fossil fuel-based CO2 emissions rising at 3% per annum in 2000-2006, largely due to economic growth in China and India • Rising emissions → rising concentrations → temperature increase → climate impacts (heatwaves, rising sea levels, etc.) • Doubling concentration to 560 ppm CO2e implies rise of 2-5ºC • Uncertainties due to feedbacks in system, e.g. rising temperature melt permafrost, which releases methane, causing more warming

  5. Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels 1850-2000 Source: Stern Review 2007

  6. Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs Source: Stern Review 2007

  7. Global average temperature 1850-2005 Source: Met Office 2006

  8. Implications for UK GHG emissions • Already high chance of world exceeding 2ºC temperature rise • For very small chance of exceeding 4ºC rise by 2100, global emissions need to peak by 2016 and then reduce by around 3% per year to 2100 • Implies halving global emissions from current 40 GtCO2e to 20-24 GtCO2e by 2050 • Assuming fair allocation of these emissions amongst 9 billion people by 2050, implies UK share of 2.1 to 2.6 tCO2e per person • Implies 80% cut in UK GHG emissions from 797 MtCO2e (in 1990) to 159 MtCO2e by 2050

  9. UK Climate Change Act • UK Climate Change Act (2008) sets target of 80% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 by 2050 • All party agreement on this target • UK Climate Change Committee (2008) recommends a 34%reduction (interim target) and 42% reduction (intended target) by 2020 • Government (2009) publishes UK Low Carbon Transition Plan for meeting interim target • UK Climate Change Committee Report (2009) argues for a step-change in the pace of emissions reductions, in order to meet intended target

  10. Scale of UK emissions reductions needed by 2050 Source: Climate Change Committee Report 2008

  11. UK possible 80% CO2 emissions reduction path Source: Climate Change Committee Report 2008

  12. Carbon intensity of UK electricity generation under 80% and 90% emissions targets for 2050 Source: Climate Change Committee Report (2008)

  13. UK Low Carbon Transition Plan • Government setting out how it will meet Carbon Budgets to 2020 • Interim budget of 34% reduction in GHG emissions relative to 1990 • Implies 18% reduction in GHG emissions on 2008 levels • 40% of electricity from low carbon sources by 2020 • 30% of electricity from renewables (UK Renewable Energy Strategy) • Funding up to four demonstration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) • Facilitating building of new nuclear power stations • Improving energy efficiency of existing households and businesses, and regulation for zero-carbon new homes • Make the UK a centre of green industry • £120 million investment in offshore wind • £60 million investment in marine (wave and tidal) energy

  14. Emissions reductions by sector Source: UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009)

  15. UK Renewable Energy Strategy • UK committed to sourcing 15% of its energy (electricity, heat and transport) from renewables by 2020 • 30% renewable electricity generation • Renewables Obligation for large-scale generation • New ‘feed-in tariffs’ for small-scale electricity generation • 12% renewable heat generation • New Renewable Heat Incentive • 10% transport energy from renewables • ‘Sustainably sourced’ biofuels • Support for demonstration of electric vehicles

  16. Climate Change Committee Report 2009 • Need for step-change in three key areas: • Reform in current electricity market arrangements to support investment in low-carbon power generation • Policies to promote energy efficiency improvement in the residential sector • ‘Whole house’ and ‘Street by street’ approach • Measures to support roll-out of electric cars • 2 million electric vehicles by 2020

  17. Beyond markets solutions • Government still hampered by ideological belief in market solutions, which often have unintended consequences and can be manipulated by powerful market actors • E.g. European Emissions Trading Scheme • Too high caps led to collapse in permit prices in early 2007 • Recession leading to reduction in permit prices again • Windfall profits for electricity generators • Renewables Obligation • Little support for early-stage and small-scale renewables • Still uncertainties about how new feed-in tariffs will work • Potential for greater green fiscal stimulus • Need for continued pressure from civil society actors

  18. Green New Deal • A ‘Green New Deal’ has been proposed to addresses the linked financial, energy and climate crunches: • $80 billion programme of investment in energy efficiency and local renewable electricity generation • Creating and training a ‘carbon army’ of workers • Establishing an Oil Legacy Fund, paid for by a windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas companies • Re-regulating the domestic financial system to ensure the creation of money at low rates of interest, combined with tighter controls on lending and the generation of credit • End of ‘cheap oil’ and global financial crises should be seen as an opportunity to stimulate a transition to a low-carbon economy

  19. Conclusions • Low Carbon Transition Plan and Climate Change Committee Reports represent an important step forward • But need for greater direct role by government • Still hampered by ideological belief in market solutions, which often have unintended consequences and can be manipulated by powerful market actors • Need for step-change in levels of investment, e.g. by transferring resources from military uses • Huge potential for job creation in low-carbon industries

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