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Post THORPEX ideas and timeline Presented at ICSC-10, Oct 2012 Terblanche

Post THORPEX ideas and timeline Presented at ICSC-10, Oct 2012 Terblanche. Key Questions. What are the key priorities in prediction on timescales from a hour to a season? 5 Societal needs 5 Key prediction/science questions 5 technological and resource realities

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Post THORPEX ideas and timeline Presented at ICSC-10, Oct 2012 Terblanche

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  1. Post THORPEX ideas and timelinePresented at ICSC-10, Oct 2012Terblanche

  2. Key Questions • What are the key priorities in prediction on timescales from a hour to a season? • 5 Societal needs • 5 Key prediction/science questions • 5 technological and resource realities • Which of these can best benefit from international approach?

  3. What needs to be done? (1) • WMO Members, the broader research community has to be presented with an end-to-end vision of how a post THORPEX WWRP will address societal needs • CAS and CBS should present a common vision of a true Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) and the mutually supportive role that each play in this. (Check S2S, PPP etc.) • Economic, technological and capacity realities will require the WMO community to embrace a truly global partnership in the provision of weather services – there is a real risk of irrelevance. • Optimal use has to be made of regional structures, both within WMO and the research community to promote regional ownership and support of activities aimed at addressing regional needs. • A distinction should be made between expertise required to foster international cooperation at the front of innovation in weather science and projects with limited lifetime where these expertise are applied to global, regional and national challenges. • A distinction should also be made between how the groups of experts and project be funded as well as where the best opportunities for capacity development is.

  4. What needs to be done? (2) • A new WWRP Strategic Plan needs to be developed supported by a separate Science Plan for the cluster of projects addressing clear societal needs: • Polar Prediction Project (PPP), not only to improve predictions from a hour to a seasonal for polar areas but as a fundamental project to push global predictability limits • Subseasonal to Seasonal Project (S2S), not only to address very specific societal needs at a critical time range but to foster focussed cooperation between the weather and climate research communities with potential benefits at both traditional weather and climate time scales • Tropical Weather and the mid-latitutes? – what are the issues that can benefit from a international approach? • RDPs, FDPs…

  5. Timeline: Preparation for post THORPEX structures/activities

  6. Minute, Hour, Day, Week, Month, sub-seasonal, season, interannual,………climate WWRP GAW WCRP Expert Team Numerical Experimentation Expert Team Data Assimilation and Observation Systems Expert Team Predictability and Ensemble Prediction RDP RDP Polar Prediction Project Subseasonal to seasonal Project Expert Team Verification Expert Team SERA WG Nowcasting and Mesoscale Meteorology WG Tropical Meteorological Research

  7. This is not the end 

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