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Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project Draft Schedule and Emission Inventory Plans

The SEMAP project outlines a comprehensive schedule for modeling and analyzing air quality, focusing on emission inventories from various sources, including point, on-road mobile, and fires, as conducted by MACTEC and Pechan. Key components involve meteorological modeling through the WRF simulation by NC DENR and IA. Multiple modeling years (2007, 2013, 2017, and 2020) are assessed for accuracy, controls, and performance enhancements. The project emphasizes the need for air quality modeling collaborations with Georgia Tech, UNC, and state agencies to address emissions by representing 900+ counties.

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Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project Draft Schedule and Emission Inventory Plans

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  1. Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project

  2. DRAFT SEMAP SCHEDULE

  3. Technical Work • Emission Inventories • MACTEC  point, on-road mobile, and fires • Pechan  area and non-road mobile • Meteorological Modeling • NC DENR and IA  Annual WRF simulation • AER  Model performance & documentation • Air Quality Modeling • Georgia Tech and UNC • GA EPD and NC DENR

  4. Modeling Years • 2007 (Actual) – Model Performance • 2007 (Typical) – Projections and RRFs • 2013 (OTB) – Daily PM2.5 NAA • 2013 final controls – additional controls? • 2017 (OTB) – Moderate Ozone NAA • 2017 final controls – additional controls • 2020 (OTB) – Serious Ozone NAA • 2020 final controls – additional controls

  5. Emission Inventories • Point (EGU and non-EGU) – DONE • Area – due mid-June • Need point source subtraction • Non-road Mobile – DONE • Except rail yards, due mid-June • Fires – due mid-June • On-road Mobile - ???? • Inputs ready, need to decide on approach…

  6. On-Road Mobile • Inventory Mode • Need one MOVES run/county • SEMAP has 900+ counties • Will need to use representative counties • PRO: Straight-forward and can start modeling NOW • CON: Too many counties to model and same diurnal emissions for all weekday/weekend days in each month • Emission Rate Mode • Need EPA’s MOVES/SMOKE interface tool • Develop look-up tables for representative counties • Pro’s: Fewer MOVES runs and can use hourly grid-level temperatures • Con’s: Will delay SEMAP modeling schedule 2-4 months

  7. WRF Modeling Domain

  8. Emissions/Air Quality Modeling • SMOKE, CMAQ, and CAMx • 36-km and 12-km grid resolution • Base Year Annual Simulations • Episodic diagnostic sensitivities • Future Year Annual Simulations • Episodic emission sensitivities • Future Year Annual Control Simulations

  9. 12-km Modeling Domain

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