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Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project

Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project. DRAFT SEMAP SCHEDULE. Technical Work. Emission Inventories MACTEC  point, on-road mobile, and fires Pechan  a rea and non-road mobile Meteorological Modeling NC DENR and IA  Annual WRF simulation

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Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project

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  1. Southeastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project

  2. DRAFT SEMAP SCHEDULE

  3. Technical Work • Emission Inventories • MACTEC  point, on-road mobile, and fires • Pechan  area and non-road mobile • Meteorological Modeling • NC DENR and IA  Annual WRF simulation • AER  Model performance & documentation • Air Quality Modeling • Georgia Tech and UNC • GA EPD and NC DENR

  4. Modeling Years • 2007 (Actual) – Model Performance • 2007 (Typical) – Projections and RRFs • 2013 (OTB) – Daily PM2.5 NAA • 2013 final controls – additional controls? • 2017 (OTB) – Moderate Ozone NAA • 2017 final controls – additional controls • 2020 (OTB) – Serious Ozone NAA • 2020 final controls – additional controls

  5. Emission Inventories • Point (EGU and non-EGU) – DONE • Area – due mid-June • Need point source subtraction • Non-road Mobile – DONE • Except rail yards, due mid-June • Fires – due mid-June • On-road Mobile - ???? • Inputs ready, need to decide on approach…

  6. On-Road Mobile • Inventory Mode • Need one MOVES run/county • SEMAP has 900+ counties • Will need to use representative counties • PRO: Straight-forward and can start modeling NOW • CON: Too many counties to model and same diurnal emissions for all weekday/weekend days in each month • Emission Rate Mode • Need EPA’s MOVES/SMOKE interface tool • Develop look-up tables for representative counties • Pro’s: Fewer MOVES runs and can use hourly grid-level temperatures • Con’s: Will delay SEMAP modeling schedule 2-4 months

  7. WRF Modeling Domain

  8. Emissions/Air Quality Modeling • SMOKE, CMAQ, and CAMx • 36-km and 12-km grid resolution • Base Year Annual Simulations • Episodic diagnostic sensitivities • Future Year Annual Simulations • Episodic emission sensitivities • Future Year Annual Control Simulations

  9. 12-km Modeling Domain

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