WHY IS MEXICO WORTH STUDYING?

1. WHY IS MEXICO WORTH STUDYING? • Its revolution and aftermath… The evidence from Mexico reminds us that violent upheavals almost always turn out poorly even if justice is the aim • Its proximity to the US, and treatment by us • It was a one-party, bureaucratic authoritarian state for decades and is a model for nations like China and Iran on how pseudo democracy works • It lets us see what it’s like to democratize fairly rapidly in the era of globalized economic production and human rights expectations • It tells us about the challenges that weak states have with democratization: Zapatistas, drugs, immigration, and populism • We sometimes think that everyone should have a political system like ours… Mexico is one of many Latin American countries that are having real challenges making presidential systems work all that well (and it works there better there than in most cases) • At the same time, the fact that democratic Mexico is still using the 1917 constitution adopted by the PRI’s precursor reminds us that democratic political culture and behaviors can be more important to how governments work in Latin American and elsewhere than what the paper says… It also reminds us making it easier to amend your constitution is not a bad idea

2. SOME IMPORTANT BASICS ABOUT MEXICO • Some basic demographic information: • +/-115 million people, 11th in the world; birth rate of 2.31 per woman= 107th in world; 20 million people in Mexico City alone. Why does size matter? • Urban pop = 77%; 1950s = 40%: Why is urbanicity so impt for development and politics? • Life expectancy: female = 79, male = 73; 71st in the world • Literacy: 86%, Avg. years of schooling: 8.6 years (14.1) if everyone had what is normal for young people now) • Despite the genocidal nature of disease, the Aztecs  60% Mestizo, 30% indigenous. What’s the “Cosmic Race,” and how does it play into Mexican nationalism? • Some basic economics • GDP $1.2 trillion nominal; $2.57T PPP (2019), 15th largest in the world (In 1980, $228B nominal GDP, but 10th in the world). • Per cap GDP (PPP) = $19,000; GNI per capita in 2011 $9,420 US/Atlas; $15,390 ppp • Mexico was one of the US’s largest sources of oil… But this had changed because of fracking • Drugs • Growing opium = Enough opium annually to produce 18 metric tons of pure heroin • Growing marijuana = 19K metric tons in 2009… Will legalize very soon. • Cocaine = 90% of US-bound ships through MX (Meth, too, but lots of that is Chinese) • Drug related deaths from drug war: Over 100K in last four years; by comparison, the total number of US deaths in the Vietnam war: 58K

9. WHAT CRITICALJUNCTURES HAVE SHAPED MEXICAN POLITICS? • We won’t talk too much about this slide in class, but I wanted to highlight some key historical moments prior to the PRI consolidating that made key contributions to the trajectory of Mexican political life: • Hernan Cortes arrives in 1519, murders the Aztec leader Cuahtemoc and builds Mexico City on top of the Aztecs capital… by 17th C. indig pop 25m 1 million • Mexico’s independence: Why was it anything but revolutionary except in its death count: over half a million lives? (Miguel Hildago led a failed revolution in 1810, so conservative generals led a successful one in 1821). Chaos until power finally consolidates in the hands of General Santa Anna (Remember the Alamo!) • What has happened when Mexico hasn’t been unified as a nation and well led?... Occupation by France (1861-67); Separation of TX (1834); The Mexican American War (1846-48); the Mexican Revolution and its aftermath (1910) • How did rule by Benito Juarez, (a Zapoteca and liberal whose forces came to power in the 1850s) forever alter the role of the Catholic church in Mexico (1857 Constitution)? What is his legacy for Mexican nationalism? • The Porfiriato (1876s-1910): How did rule by the “modernizing tyrant” Porfirio Diaz help and harm Mexico? • What were the causes, issues, and costs (1.5M; 7% of pop) of the Mexican Revolution and its termination (1910-1917, with carry over into the 1920s). Who won? Radicals (Emiliano Zapata and Panch Villa) or moderates (the latter!)?

10. Miguel Hildago’s Revolutionary call forIndependence O'Gorman, Juan: Retablo de la independencia Mural by Juan O'Gorman depicting the Grito de Dolores, detail of Retablo de la independencia (1960–61); in the National History Museum, Chapultepec Castle, Mexico City.

11. HOW DID MEXICO WORK UNDER THE THE PRI? • How was the revolution finally institutionalized in the PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party)? • The key elements of the elite pact in the 1930s, based on the mid-civil war 1917 Constitution. Elias Calles institutionalizes moderate rule in what becomes the PRI an ensures that the military and Church will play minor roles in Mexican politics • The key leadership choices of Lazaro Cardenas: corporatism, land reform (ejidos), and the nationalization of the oil industry. • How did the PRI stay in power so long? What was “The perfect dictatorship” • Leadership flexibility: The key was having a dynamic, albeit closed oligarchy (using the “camarilla” system and the “dedado”) • Staying connected to the needs of the people through non-democratic means: elite rotation, coporatism, clientelism, patronage, populism, and shared prosperity • Why did the PRI allow the PAN to emerge? So it could keep a finger on the pulse of elements (business and conservative elites) that could threaten it • Was the PRI ultimately good or bad for Mexico? • Look at the rest of the region in the 1960s; the use of the military was very light • Its economic record (ISI works better when it is used selectively and with oil$) • Its record of creating an independent civil society with little censorship • Its record of creating an urbanized Mexico • Its graceful exit from power (more… on the specifics… next slide)

12. WHY DID MEXICO BECOME DEMOCRATIC? Why did the PRI finally begin lose its grip on power?: • The Mexican Miracle (1940s->1970s) ->ISI and borrowing:Oil shocks-->debt negotiation  austerity  Recession and political base issues state elections • The PRI goes with a technocrat, Carlos Salinas (1988), creating the PRD, and resulting in the stolen 1988 election (from Cuauhtémoc Cardenas) • Liberalization and NAFTA in 1990a: Hitting the PRI’s base… PPP wages dropped 50% Why was the PRI’s Ernesto Zedillo (1994-2000) so important in the transition?: • The end of the Cold War, NAFTA and agricultural “reform,” collapse of the peso, the assassination of Donaldo Collasio, & some Zapatista revolutionaries • The economic crisis and corruption scandal involving the former president gives Zedillo his opening: electoral reforms, unleashing the media, an independent electoral commission, and refusing to name a successor Why did the PRI lose the 2000 election? Why did Vicente Fox (2000-2006)’s PAN win? • Fox’s American political consultants versus the PRI machine • Deciding to vote against PRI: Tipping points and overcoming the voters’ dilemma What in the world happened in 2006? There are actually lots of upsides to the loss by the PRD’s Manual Obrador and the <1%victory of the PAN, led by Felipe Calderon 2012-->Pena Nieto wins with 39.1%: Is this a different PRI? Sort of 2018 Power to AMLO, and so far, so good as far as being democratic goes

13. HOW IS POWER STRUCTURED IN MEXICO? The presidential system (per the 1917 Constitution): • Six year terms; The no-reelection principle • One-round, multiparty national plurality elections with no run-off (like US… and much more problematic with 3 parties). • The president was very strong under the PRI, but now is contained if the Congressional opposition unites. But the PRD is an interesting wild card The Congress is poorly institutionalized (weak committee system, few resources for legislatures, 12-year (since 2018) term limits; very limited amendment powers) The Chamber of Deputies: 500 seats with three-year terms. (1) 300 seats = FPTP; plus (2) 200 = closed-list PR using lists from five regions to get proportional balance. (3) No party can control more than 300 seats in total. PR has gender quotas… but not good ones now. Like US Congress, but more autonomous power. • The Senate: 128 seats with six-year terms. For each of the 31 states and the federal district the 1st place party = 2 seats, 2nd place party = 1 seat; 32 additional PR (national list) seats available for smaller parties and to get balance. Like German Bundesrat. Federalism (at the state level) is a key feature of Mexican politics and key to the role drugs, clientelism, and party “dinasours” still play. Still 90% of taxation is federal. The main parties: The PRI, the PAN, and the PRD (Morena). What are the main differences, and what are their main constituencies? What happens if and when more parties get involved?

14. IS REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE STILL NEEDED? MEXICO'S UNFINISHED DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION What are the most serious unresolved political problems? • Why didn’t Mexico rewrite its Constitution when it went democratic? • Did the PAN’s Vicente Fox (1st democ. Pres) do anything right despite his poor policy performance? Yes! (think about George Washington). What about since then? PAN -> PAN -> PRI -> Moreno (PRD) • What are “authoritarian legacies” and “enclaves” still are present in Mexico? Where (which locations? Which institutions?) • Can the Mexican political system solve problems without more institutional reform? Multipartism & presidentialism • Can Mexican elections be fixed? Is there any upside to crisis with the 2006 elections? What does it tell us about Mexico’s democratic culture? What does it tell us about the need for Mexico to move away from single-round FPTP presidential elections? • Does Mexico need the “revolution” that Marcos’s Zapatistas and López Obrador (or at least the old version of him) have call for?

15. IS REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE STILL NEEDED? MEXICO'S UNFINISHED DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION How are drugs impacting Mexico’s democracy? • Why could the drug trade impact the entire political system? (How does the drug trade fit into the logic of the “curse” of natural resources?). • How do drugs impact mass confidence in the political system (remember the good ol’ days under the PRI?)? Has democracy in the era of globalization made the drug problem worse… of course it has. • The threats to civil society (esp. press, opinion leaders, and NGOs) • The construction of extra-state patronage systems by cartels, extra judicial killings by fed up elites • Violence, corruption, and unequal citizenship in the courts is particularly problematic in subnational politics • Isn’t it time to take this as a bi-national problem? Our gun laws, laundering resources, and drug use has brought full-blow networks across the border • Can the drug crisis be leveraged to get political change? Maybe.