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PRA Research to Enhance Decision-Making

PRA Research to Enhance Decision-Making. John Monninger, Deputy Director Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC. Presentation Purpose. Provide Information and Status on Current Initiatives Solicit Feedback. Role of NRC PRA Research Program.

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PRA Research to Enhance Decision-Making

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  1. PRA Research to Enhance Decision-Making John Monninger, Deputy Director Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, NRC

  2. Presentation Purpose • Provide Information and Status on Current Initiatives • Solicit Feedback

  3. Role of NRC PRA Research Program • Support NRC’s Licensing Offices by Producing Technical Studies, Methods and Tools, and Regulatory Guidance • Responsive to User Needs and Commission Direction

  4. PRA Technical Adequacy • Consensus Standards • Reg Guide 1.200, “An Approach for Determining the Technical Adequacy of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Results for Risk-Informed Activities” (Mar 2009) • NUREG-1855, “Guidance on the Treatment of Uncertainties Associated with PRAs in Risk-Informed Decisionmaking” (Mar 2009) • Workshop (May 2009) • Training

  5. Risk Assessment Standardization Project • Methods and Guidance for Consistent Risk Assessment Results • Inspection Findings, Operational Events, Precursor Analysis • Internal Events Analysis, External Events Analysis, SPAR Model Reviews • Common-Cause Failure Analysis, Low-Power and Shutdown Events, Human Reliability Analysis

  6. Digital Instrumentation & Controls • Traditional Methods • NUREG/CR-6962, “Traditional Probabilistic Risk Assessment Methods for Digital Systems” (Oct. 2008) • Draft NUREG/CR, “Modeling a Digital Feedwater Control System Using Traditional PRA Methods” (Fall 2009) • Dynamic Methods • NUREG/CR-6901, “Current State of Reliability Modeling Methodologies for Digital Systems and Their Acceptance Criteria for Nuclear Power Plant Assessments” (Feb. 2006) • NUREG/CR-6942, “Dynamic Reliability Modeling of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems for Nuclear Reactor Probabilistic Risk Assessments” (Oct. 2007) • NUREG/CR-6985, “A Benchmark Implementation of Two Dynamic Methodologies for the Reliability Modeling of Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems” (Feb. 2009) • Probabilistic Modeling of Software Failures • OECD/WGRisk Digital I&C Reliability

  7. PRA Technical Issues • Support System Initiating Event Analysis • Treatment of Loss of Offsite Power • ECCS Injection Post-Containment Failure • Containment Sump Recirculation • HRA Dependencies and Recovery Modeling • Thermal Hydraulic Success Criteria

  8. Fire Modeling and PRA • Support for 50.48(c)/NFPA-805 Implementation • Fire Modeling Users Guide for NPPs • Cable Flame Spread & Heat Release Rate Testing • NRC/EPRI Fire PRA Training Course (June 2009, October 2009) • HRA for Post-Fire Human Actions • DC Circuit Spurious Actuation Testing • Fire Events Database

  9. Human Reliability Analysis • International Empirical HRA Study • HRA Model Use in Decision-Making • Human Event Repository and Analysis System • Assessment of U.S. Crew Performance?

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