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POL S 202: Intro to American Politics

POL S 202: Intro to American Politics. “Public Opinion, Political Socialization” Week 4: April 22, 2010. American Politics in the News…. 1. 2. 3. Defining Public Opinion. Public Opinion : Citizens’ attitudes about political issues, leaders, institutions, and events….. and also…..

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POL S 202: Intro to American Politics

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  1. POL S 202: Intro to American Politics “Public Opinion, Political Socialization” Week 4: April 22, 2010

  2. American Politics in the News… 1. 2. 3.

  3. Defining Public Opinion • Public Opinion: Citizens’ attitudes about political issues, leaders, institutions, and events….. and also….. • Public Opinion: People’s evaluations and understanding of politics in general and their views on specific issues of the day • Political Ideology: A cohesive set of beliefs that form a general philosophy about the role of government

  4. An example of public opinion Please tell if you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling each of the following issues. * How about health care? Source: Associated Press / Roper Public Affairs, N=1,000 MoE 3.1

  5. Studying Public Opinion • Want to know what people think about an issue? ASK THEM! • Opinion poll: A method of systematically questioning a small, selected sample of respondents who are deemed representative of the total population • Survey research is a science that involves question wording, sample construction, and interpreting the results

  6. Studying Public Opinion • Survey Research Center at University of Michigan is a leading center for studying political opinions • National Election Study, conducted every two years since 1948 • Sampling technique – must be as random and fair as possible. Every individual in the population must have an equal chance of being interviewed so as to not introduce bias into the result

  7. Conducting Survey Research How many people should we interview? Margin of error – For voters in the U.S. (about 100 million) interviewserror 10,000 1.0% 1,500 2.5% 1,000 3.1% 500 4.4% 200 6.9% 100 9.8% This is really accurate, but also really expensive and takes a long time Somewhere in this range seems to be the most cost effective size

  8. Conducting Survey Research Types of surveys: • In person, door-to-door • Telephone random digital dial (RDD); • Telephone listed; • Man on the street (exit poll); • Online/email; • Mail survey (census); • Other issues: stratifying sample; weighting data

  9. Conducting Survey Research Potential bias: • age • race • gender • education • income • political party

  10. Conducting Survey Research • Who is home during the day? • Who is more likely to answer the phone? • Who is more likely to have their number unlisted? • Who is more likely to fill out a mail survey? • Who is more likely to fill out an online survey? • Who is more likely to be too busy? • Question wording – should not be leading, should not give too much information, should not be framed with long introduction, should be careful about placement within survey

  11. Assignment for Friday Section(to be turned in next Weds Quiz) • Find an article about a public opinion poll • Identify the margin of error • Identify the sample size • Identify the polling company/sponsor • When was the poll “in the field” • Briefly state the results

  12. Political Socialization • Political Socialization: How people acquire their political attitudes and beliefs • Agents of influence: • Family • Education / school system • Peers / Friends • Religion • Economic status • Political Events • Elites / Opinion leaders • The Media

  13. Race and Public Opinion Discrimination against African Americans Black respondents 63% Yes White respondents 30% Yes Blacks receive too many special advantages Black respondents 1% agree White respondents 21% agree

  14. Education and Public Opinion Women and Men should have equal roles Less than HS 45% agree High school 72% agree College grad 85% agree

  15. Public Opinion in Washington Political culture and public opinion in WA has a long history of anti-establishment attitudes Populist and progressive reform movements in WA established support for High expectations for state government Low approval of state government More supportive of environmental protection Less supportive of individual-based taxes (income) Major divides West/East of Cascades

  16. Public Opinion in Washington In 2006, the University of Washington established The Washington Poll to collect public opinion data on the voting public here in WA state The Washington Poll asks questions about elections, public officials, attitudes on social issues, public policy, and more Generally speaking, the data have revealed a public that is skeptical of too much government, in favor of public involvement through ballot initiatives

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