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Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!

Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!. Time Series Analysis. The End Result . . . . Lesson Objectives. To understand what Time Series Analysis is To be able to calculate Moving Averages To be able to calculate Variations

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Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!

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  1. Today we are going back in time to help us predict the future!!!

  2. Time Series Analysis

  3. The End Result . . . .

  4. Lesson Objectives • To understand what Time Series Analysis is • To be able to calculate Moving Averages • To be able to calculate Variations • To evaluate how Time Series Analysis can aid management decision making

  5. Forecasting

  6. Identifying the Trend

  7. Work out the moving average for the below figures:

  8. Work out the moving average for the below figures: 466.7 550 300+500+600 3

  9. The Answer

  10. TASK TIME • Draw the graph (on graph paper): • Show sales • Show the 3 point moving average

  11. The Graph

  12. The Graph

  13. The 4 Point Moving Average

  14. TASK • Calculate the 3 and 4 period moving averages for as many years as you can to complete the table • Plot the sales figures and both trend lines onto a graph using graph paper. • Comment on the relationship between the trend and the actual sales figures.

  15. 565 645 705 735 740 780 840 1210 1350 1440 1475 1520 1620

  16. Variation • Variation = Actual Data – Trend Data

  17. Seasonal Variation

  18. Advantages of TSA

  19. Disadvantages of TSA

  20. Quick Question Evaluate how TSA might assist managerial decision making

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