Can We Predict the Future?

1. Can We Predict the Future?

2. What are some important environmental issues weface today? • Global warming • Rising water levels • Loss of primary forest areas • Hole in the Ozone layer

3. Destruction of Amazon rainforests accelerating • Newly released satellite imaging data has revealed a 40 per cent jump in deforestation in Brazil's Amazon rainforests. • The massive leap is the worst acceleration in the loss of the tropical jungle since 1995 and is in sharp contrast to the drive to preserve the world's largest area of continuous rainforest. The forest harbours enormous biodiversity and plays a significant role in the world's climate. • “The forest loss is huge," says Sandra Charity, interim chief executive of WWF Brazil. She points out that the loss in the single year to August 2002 makes up five per cent of the area lost over the last 500 years. Mario Monzoni, a project coordinator for Friends of the Earth in Brazil, told Reuters. "The rate of deforestation should be falling, instead the opposite is happening." • NewScientist.com news service 17:01 27 June 03

4. Lets look at some information from the loss of one of the major primary forests in the world; the Amazon Rainforest http://rainforests.mongabay.com/amazon/deforestation_calculations.html

5. Recent Ozone Loss over Antarctica • The graph to the right shows the measured total ozone above the Halley Bay station in Antarctica. Each point represents the average total ozone for the month of October. Note the sudden change in the curve after about 1975. • By 1994, the total ozone in October was less than half its value during the 1970s, 20 years previous. This dramatic fall in ozone was caused by the use of man-made chemicals known as 'halocarbons' which include the well-known CFCs commonly used in fridges and so on. http://www.atm.ch.cam.ac.uk/tour/part2.html

6. Recent Ozone Loss over Antarctica

7. Sea level has been rising, on average, between 1 to 2.5 mm/yr for the last 100-150 years, with 1.8 mm/yr a "best estimate". • Within the next 100 years, global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions may cause worldwide rates of sea level rise to increase 2 to 5 times over present rates within the next 100 years. • Low-lying areas and coastal wetlands would be inundated, beach erosion would intensify, and storm flooding would become more frequent. The effects of regional sea-level rise, is associated with coastal hazards, including storm floods and beach erosion. • http://metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/coastal.htm

9. In pairs you will look you will be allocated one of the environmental issues to research. • You will be asked to make a prediction about the future, • You will need to show/explain how you came up with your prediction, • You will need to be able to explain how you know that your prediction is reasonable.

10. Mathematical Models • We have just used the Mathematical Model of a line to represent the data and make future predictions. • How can we determine these models? • How can they be used? • How can we determine if our prediction is suitable?

11. Lets Investigate a Simpler situation to determine how we can determine a mathematical model. Consider this scenario: • Mannie wants to raise money to buy a new bike for an upcoming triathlon. He already has $5o and plans to sell lemonade for $2 / cup so he can earn enough money for the bike. The bike costs $180. Task: • How could we develop and use this model to solve our problem? • How can we check if our answer is reasonable? • Refer to task sheet

12. WARM UP • Solve these equations • 1. x + 5 = 14 • 2. m – 4 = 3 • 3. 3a = -36 • 4. • 5. 2d + 1 = 25