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Data & Modeling Unit

GA EPD Permit & SIP Modeling Update James W. Boylan Georgia EPD – Air Protection Branch Manager, Data and Modeling Unit AWMA Regulatory Update Conference May 1, 2014 – Atlanta, GA. Data & Modeling Unit. Keith Bentley Air Protection Branch. Jimmy Johnston, P.E. Planning & Support Program.

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Data & Modeling Unit

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  1. GA EPD Permit & SIP Modeling UpdateJames W. BoylanGeorgia EPD – Air Protection BranchManager, Data and Modeling UnitAWMA Regulatory Update ConferenceMay 1, 2014 – Atlanta, GA

  2. Data & Modeling Unit Keith Bentley Air Protection Branch Jimmy Johnston, P.E. Planning & Support Program Jim Boylan, Ph.D. Data & Modeling Unit SIP Modeling Team Byeong Kim, Ph.D. Tao Zeng, Ph.D. Di Tian, Ph.D. Permit Modeling Team Yan Huang, Ph.D. Henian Zhang, Ph.D. Yunhee Kim, Ph.D.

  3. Permit ModelingUpdate

  4. Permit Modeling Steady-State Gaussian plume dispersion models: AERMOD and ISC

  5. Permit Modeling Guidance • Georgia EPD PSD Permit Application Guidance Document (09/18/12) • http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/psd_guidance_document.htm • Guideline for Ambient Impact Assessment of Toxic Air Pollutant Emissions, 1998 • http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/otherforms/infodocs/toxguide.pdf • Guideline for Modeling PM10 Ambient Concentration in Areas Impacted by Quarry Operation Producing Crushed Stone - August 7, 2012 • http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/downloads/sspp/modeling/quarryguideline_august2012.pdf

  6. Meteorological Data • GA EPD has develop 5-years of AERMET meteorological data for each ASOS surface and upper air pairing • Pairing based on distance, climatological zone, and data completeness criteria • 2007-2011 data, except KAMG/KJAX is 2006-2010 • Last updated on April 4, 2013 • All data sets are available on-line • http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/modeling/aermetdata.htm

  7. Surface Roughness Update • Previously, EPD provided data sets with three different surface roughness values (0.05, 0.5, 1.0) and the applicant ran AERSURFACE at the project site to find the most representative value. • Now, meteorological data is processed using the surface roughness at the airport • 12 different sectors • Applicant will provide a justification for representativeness in modeling protocol

  8. Surface/Upper Station Pairings

  9. Background Concentrations • GA EPD has develop background concentrations for each county based on the 2010-2012 design values • PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, Pb • Will update to 2011-2013 design values by the end of May • All data sets are available on-line • http://www.georgiaair.org/airpermit/html/sspp/modeling.htm

  10. Off-Site Emissions Inventory • GA EPD will create a statewide emission inventory for the PSD air impact analysis • NAAQS & Increment • PM10, PM2.5, NOx, SO2, and CO • Follow 40 CFR 51 Appendix W • Contractor support from AMEC • GA EPD will maintain future updates to the emission inventory through the permit application process. • All emissions will be available on-line

  11. Secondary Impacts • In 2012, EPA granted the Sierra Club’s Petition to engage in rule making to evaluate updates to Appendix W and, as appropriate, incorporate new analytical techniques or models for ozone and secondary PM2.5. • AERMOD does not have the ability to model ozone and secondary PM2.5 impacts • EPA’s Timeline • 11th Conference on Air Quality Modeling (2014)

  12. Options to Consider… • SCI-CHEM and CALPUFF • Lagrangian dispersion models with full chemistry • PM2.5 Off-Set Trading Ratios • EPA’s default 40:1 for SO2:PM2.5 and 200:1 for NOx:PM2.5 were withdrawn by EPA • Need to perform region specific fine grid photochemical modeling to develop new ratios • Ozone Emission Sensitivities • ppb ozone/ton NOx, ppb ozone/ton VOC • Full blown photochemical modeling? • Resource intensive (computer and personnel)

  13. PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Annual

  14. PM2.5 Offset Ratios - Seasonal • SO2 and NOx offset ratios vary by season of the year and distance from the source: SO2 Ratios NOx Ratios

  15. Tier 1 Approach SO2 Ratios NOx Ratios Tier 1 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.

  16. Tier 2 Approach SO2 Ratios NOx Ratios Tier 2 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx can be accounted for by scaling the standard AERMOD output files.

  17. Tier 3 Approach SO2 Ratios NOx Ratios Tier 3 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx should be added to the actual direct PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD.

  18. Tier 4 Approach SO2 Ratios NOx Ratios Tier 4 “equivalent” direct PM2.5 emissions from SO2 and NOx will require scaling quarterly AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of annual and daily PM2.5 impacts.

  19. Example PSD Application Direct PM2.5 emissions = 118.30 TYP SO2 emissions = 190.93 TPY NOx emissions = 340.65 TPY PM2.5 Scaling Factor = (SO2 TPY/SO2 Ratio) + (NOx TPY/NOx Ratio) + PM2.5 TPY PM2.5 TPY

  20. Annual PM2.5 – No Secondary

  21. Annual PM2.5 – Tier 1

  22. Annual PM2.5 vs. SIL

  23. Daily PM2.5 – No Secondary

  24. Daily PM2.5 – Tier 1

  25. Daily PM2.5 – Tier 2

  26. Daily PM2.5 vs. SIL

  27. Can I Use These Offset Ratios? • GA EPD will not require applicants to account for secondary PM2.5 formation until the final EPA PM2.5 Modeling Guidance is released. • DO NOT USE THE OFFSET RATIOS IN THIS PRESENTATION WITHOUT PRIOR WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM GA EPD. • Tier 1 and Tier 2 approaches involve directly scaling the standard AERMOD output files. • Tier 3 approach involves scaling actual direct PM2.5 emissions prior to running AERMOD. • Tier 4 approach will require scaling quarterly AERMOD outputs followed by recalculation of annual and daily PM2.5 impacts.

  28. SIP ModelingUpdate

  29. Attainment SIP Updates • Georgia is meeting the 1997 ozone NAAQS (85 ppb) and the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS (15 mg/m3) • Ozone maintenance plan for Atlanta was approved • PM2.5 maintenance plans for Atlanta, Macon, Floyd County, and Chattanooga are pending • Atlanta was designed nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS (75 ppb) • 15 counties • “Marginal” ozone areas do not require modeling • Georgia did not recommend any areas non-attainment for the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS (12 mg/m3) • Waiting for EPA official designations

  30. SEMAP Project • SouthEastern Modeling, Analysis, and Planning (SEMAP) Project • Managed through SESARM • Same group of states that were involved with SAMI, VISTAS, and ASIP • AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN, VA, WV • 2007 and 2018 annual modeling with CMAQv5.01 • 36 km (CONUS) and 12 km grids • Ozone, PM2.5, Regional Haze

  31. ui Ki ui Ri ui Ki Ki Si Si CMAQ is a Grid-Based Model

  32. SEMAP 12-km Modeling Domain

  33. Air Quality Modeling System Meteorology (WRF) Air Quality (CMAQ) Emissions (SMOKE) Emissions Inventory (NIF) MOVES Rates

  34. 2007 Ozone Design Values

  35. 2018 Ozone Design Values

  36. Ozone Sensitivities • Start with 2018 modeling results • Perform emission sensitivity runs • Ozone season (5 months) on 12-km grid • Statewide 30% emission reductions • NOx and VOCs individually • Point, area, mobile, NONROAD, MAR • 14 geographic regions • Ten individual SEMAP states • Maryland • MANE-VU (minus MD), LADCO, CENRAP • 2 precursors x 14 regions = 28 model runs

  37. Normalized Sensitivities • Divided the relative sensitivity from MATS for the home state by the annual average emissions reduction (ppt/TPD) • (DDVFNOx x 1000)/TPDNOx • (DDVFVOC x 1000)/TPDVOC • Created stacked bar charts of normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities for each monitor • Calculated state average normalized NOx and VOC sensitivities • Calculated ratio of normalized NOx sensitivity to normalized VOC sensitivity for each monitor

  38. Emission Reductions (30%)

  39. NOx vs. VOC Ratios

  40. Interstate Contributions • Examined state-by-state contributions at downwind sites with DVF > 75 ppb in 2018 • Divided state-by-state 30% NOx contributions from MATS by 0.3 to obtain 100% NOx contribution from each state • Assumes NOx sensitivities are linear to 100% • Removed contributions from non-SEMAP states and from home states • Identified SEMAP states that contributed more than various thresholds: • 1.0 ppb • 0.75 ppb

  41. NAA State Contributions

  42. SEMAP Next Steps • Examine SEMAP 2018 projections for PM2.5 and Regional Haze • Replicate EPA 2011 and 2018 modeling • May adjust 2018 EGUs based on ERTAC model • May replace SMOKE-MOVES emissions with inventory mode MOVES • May adjust VOC emissions from fires • May perform NOx emission sensitivities • Create 2028 emission inventory and perform 2028 modeling for Regional Haze

  43. SO2 SIP ModelingUpdate

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