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Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case

Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case. U.S. Energy Information Administration Spring, 2011 | Washington, DC. Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case, which assumes current laws remain unchanged.

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Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Reference Case

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  1. Annual Energy Outlook 2011Reference Case U.S. Energy Information Administration Spring, 2011 | Washington, DC

  2. Key results from the AEO2011 Reference case,which assumes current laws remain unchanged • Increased estimates for U.S. shale gas resources drive increased U.S. production, lower prices, and lower imports of natural gas • Industrial natural gas demand recovers, reversing recent trend • Non-hydro renewables and natural gas are the fastest growing electricity generation sources, but coal remains the dominant fuel because of the large amount of existing capacity • Oil imports fall due to increased domestic production—including biofuels—and greater fuel efficiency • U.S. carbon dioxide emissions rise slowly, but do not pass 2005 levels again until 2027 AEO2011, April 2011

  3. What is included (and excluded) in developing EIA’s “Reference case” projections? • Generally assumes current laws and regulations • excludes potential future laws and regulations (e.g., proposed greenhouse gas legislation and proposed fuel economy standards are not included) • provisions generally sunset as specified in law (e.g., renewable tax credits expire) • Some grey areas • adds a premium to the capital cost of CO2-intensive technologies to reflect market behavior regarding possible CO2 regulation • assumes implementation of existing regulations that enable the building of new energy infrastructure and resource extraction • Includes technologies that are commercial or reasonably expected to become commercial over next decade or so • includes projected technology cost and efficiency improvements, as well as cost reductions linked to cumulative deployment levels • does not assume revolutionary or breakthrough technologies AEO2011, April 2011

  4. Key updates included in the AEO2011 Reference case • Natural gas and oil supply • more than doubled the technically recoverable U.S. shale gas resources assumed in AEO2010 and added new shale oil resources • updated offshore data and assumptions, pushing out start dates for several projects as a result of the drilling moratoria and delaying offshore leasing beyond 2017 • Electricity • updated costs for new power plants • expanded number of electricity regions to 22 from 13, allowing better regional representation of market structure and power flow • Transport • increased limit for ethanol blending into gasoline from E10 to E15 for approved vehicles • includes California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reduces the carbon intensity of gasoline and diesel fuels in that state by 10% from 2012 through 2020 • revised light duty vehicle miles travelled downward • updated electric and plug-in hybrid electric battery cost and size AEO2011, April 2011

  5. Global energy consumption AEO2011, April 2011

  6. Non-OECD countries account for vast majority of the nearly 50% projected increase in global energy use by 2035 energy consumption quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2010 62% Non-OECD 50% OECD 38% 50% USA AEO2011, April 2011

  7. Overview of U.S. energy supply and demand AEO2011, April 2011

  8. Current U.S. energy supply is 83% fossil fuels;demand is broadly distributed among the major sectors 2009 total U.S. energy use = 94.6 quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2009 Energy supply Energy demand AEO2011, April 2011

  9. Renewables grow rapidly, but under current policies fossil fuels still provide 78% of U.S. energy use in 2035 U.S. primary energy consumption quadrillion Btu per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Shares of total U.S. energy History 2009 Projections 10% 7% 21% 21% 24% 25% 3% 1% 33% 37% 8% 9% AEO2011, April 2011

  10. Energy efficiency gains reduce consumption 13% from where it would otherwise be; structural change is even larger quadrillion Btu Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Structural change -33% Efficiency change -13% AEO2011, April 2011

  11. Energy and CO2 per dollar of GDP continue to decline;per-capita energy use also declines index, 2005=1 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History 2009 Projections AEO2011, April 2011

  12. In the AEO2011 Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions grow 5% over 2005 levels by 2035 billion metric tons carbon dioxide Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2005 2009 AEO2011, April 2011

  13. Electricity AEO2011, April 2011

  14. In 2009, U.S. electricity generation was 70% fossil fuels, 20% nuclear, and 10% renewable 2009 Total net generation: 3,953 billion kWh 2009 Non-hydro renewable net generation: 141 billion kWh Other gases 0.3% Conventional hydroelectric 6.9% Nuclear 20.2% Wind: 1.8% Other 0.3% Natural gas 23.3% Solar thermal and PV: <0.1% Other renewable 3.6% Wood and wood-derived fuels: 0.9% Geothermal: 0.4% Coal 44.6% Other biomass: 0.5% Petroleum 1.0% • Source: EIA, Electric Power Monthly, October 2010 AEO2011, April 2011

  15. While projected electricity consumption grows by 30%, the rate of growth has slowed percent growth (3-year rolling average) Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.8 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.7 1980s 2.9 1990s 2.4 2000-2009 0.5 2009-2035 1.0 History 2009 Structural Change in Economy - Higher prices - Standards - Improved efficiency Projections AEO2011, April 2011

  16. The Reference case electricity mix in AEO2011 gradually shifts to lower-carbon options, with generation from natural gas rising 40% and renewables rising 75% electricity net generation trillion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 43% 25% 14% 17% 1% AEO2011, April 2011

  17. Updated electric power plant capital costs show increases for nuclear, coal, and wind, while solar costs decline overnight capital cost2009 dollars per kilowatt Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 - 25% + 39% - 10% + 37% - 2% + 25% + 21% + 1% AEO2011, April 2011

  18. Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold, meeting 22% of projected electricity generation growth non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Advanced biofuels cogeneration Power sector Biomass Industrial CHP Wind Geothermal Solar Waste AEO2011, April 2011

  19. Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2009 to 2035 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 2009 capacity Capacity additions 2009 to 2035 Nuclear 101 (10%) Coal 313 (30%) Nuclear 6 (3%) Hydropower* 3 (1%) Hydropower* 99 (10%) Coal 14 (6%) Other renewables 28 (12%) Other renewables 15 (1%) End-use coal 12 (5%) Wind 25 (11%) 223 gigawatts Other fossil 1 (0.4%) 1,033 gigawatts Wind 32 (3%) End-use coal 4 (0.3%) Natural gas 135 (60%) Other fossil 118 (11%) Natural gas 351 (34%) * Includes pumped storage AEO2011, April 2011

  20. Natural Gas AEO2011, April 2011

  21. Over the last decade, U.S. shale gas production has increased 14-fold and now comprises about 22 percent of total U.S. production annual shale gas production trillion cubic feet Sources: EIA, Lippman Consulting AEO2011, April 2011

  22. Shale gas has been the primary source of recent growth in U.S. technically recoverable natural gas resources U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Unproved shale gas 2543 Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types and locations) 827 1472 245 AEO2011, April 2011

  23. 30% domestic gas production growth outpaces 16% consumption growth, leading to declining imports U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 1% Consumption 6% 11% Net imports Domestic supply AEO2011 Reference case AEO2010 Reference case AEO2011, April 2011

  24. Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 1% Net imports 11% 46% Shale gas 14% 20% Non-associated onshore 8% 9% 9% Non-associated offshore 28% Tight gas 22% 8% 6% Coalbed methane Alaska 2% 9% 1% Associated with oil 7% AEO2011, April 2011

  25. Natural gas consumption is quite dispersed; industrial and electric power use drives future demand growth U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet per year *Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel. **Includes pipeline fuel. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 35% Industrial* 32% 30% 30% Central electric power 14% 14% Commercial 18% 21% Residential Transportation** 3% 3% AEO2011, April 2011

  26. A number of key economic and market drivers underpin natural gas consumption growth Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April 2011

  27. Natural gas price projections are significantly lower than past years due to an expanded shale gas resource base natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2009 dollars per million Btu Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011; EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2010; and EIA, An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case History Projections 2009 $9/MMBtu Updated AEO2009 AEO2010 $7/MMBtu AEO2011 AEO2011, April 2011

  28. Oil and other liquid supply AEO2011, April 2011

  29. Oil prices in the Reference case rise steadily;the full AEO2011 will include a wide range of oil prices annual average price of low sulfur crude oil real 2009 dollars per barrel Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 2009 History Projections High Oil Price AEO2011 Reference Low Oil Price AEO2011, April 2011

  30. Unconventional sources more than triple globally, but conventional petroleum continues to comprise the vast majority of liquids supply global liquids productionmillion barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 2009 History Projections 40% OPEC conventional 39% 12% Unconventional 5% 56% 47% Non-OPEC conventional AEO2011, April 2011

  31. U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production – including biofuels – and greater fuel efficiency U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 Biofuels including imports 4% 11% 10% 13% Natural gas plant liquids 3% Liquids from coal 34% 32% Petroleum supply 52% Net petroleum imports 41% AEO2011, April 2011

  32. Biofuels, natural gas liquids, and crude oil production are key sources of increased domestic liquids supply U.S. liquid fuels million barrels per day Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Total consumption Net crude oil imports Net product imports Crude oil production Gulf of Mexico Liquids from coal Natural gas plant liquids Biofuels (including net imports) Refinery processing gain AEO2011, April 2011

  33. Biofuels fall short of the goal in 2022, but exceed the 36 billion gallon RFS target by 2031 billions ethanol-equivalent gallons Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Legislated RFS in 2022 Biodiesel RFS with adjustments under CAA Sec.211(o)(7) Net imports Other Advanced Cellulosic biofuels Corn ethanol AEO2011, April 2011

  34. New light duty vehicle fuel economy achieves almost 38 mpg by 2035 in the Reference case miles per gallon Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 AEO2011, April 2011

  35. Most transport fuel growth is in light and heavy duty vehicles U.S. transportation energy consumption million barrels per day oil equivalent Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 History Projections 2009 64% Light-duty vehicles 67% 20% Heavy-duty vehicles 16% 9% Air 10% 4% Marine 4% 2% Rail 2% AEO2011, April 2011

  36. Efficiency improvements partially offset underlying drivers of growth in transportation services * Equal to a 25% reduction in fuel use per mile. ** Equal to an 8% reduction in fuel use per mile. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April 2011

  37. Unconventional vehicles meet over 40% of U.S. light-duty vehicle sales in 2035 U.S. light car and truck salesmillions Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 AEO2011, April 2011

  38. For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer AEO2011, April 2011

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