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World Energy Outlook 2011

World Energy Outlook 2011. Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Parliament House, Canberra 12 December 2011. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends. Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention

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World Energy Outlook 2011

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  1. World Energy Outlook 2011 Dr. Fatih Birol IEA Chief Economist Parliament House, Canberra 12 December 2011

  2. The context: fresh challenges add to already worrying trends • Economic concerns have diverted attention from energy policy and limited the means of intervention • Post-Fukushima, nuclear is facing uncertainty • MENA turmoil raised questions about region’s investment plans • Some key trends are pointing in worrying directions: • CO2 emissions rebounded to a record high • energy efficiency of global economy worsened for 2nd straight year • spending on oil imports is near record highs

  3. Emerging economies continue to drive global energy demand Growth in primary energy demand Global energy demand increases by one-third from 2010 to 2035, with China & India accounting for 50% of the growth 4 500 China Mtoe 4 000 India 3 500 Other developing Asia 3 000 Russia Middle East 2 500 Rest of world 2 000 OECD 1 500 1 000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

  4. Natural gas & renewables become increasingly important Renewables & natural gas collectively meet almost two-thirds of incremental energy demand in 2010-2035 World primary energy demand 5 000 Mtoe Additional to 2035 4 000 2010 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Oil Coal Gas Renewables Nuclear

  5. Changing oil import needs are set toshift concerns about oil security Net imports of oil 14 mb/d 2000 12 2010 10 2035 8 6 4 2 0 China India European United Japan Union States US oil imports drop due to rising domestic output & improved transport efficiency: EU imports overtake those of the US around 2015; China becomes the largest importer around 2020

  6. What impact would deferred investment in MENA have on markets? • MENA is set to supply the bulk of the growth in oil outputto 2035, requiring investment of over $100 billion/annum • ‘Deferred Investment Case’ looks at near-term investment falling short by one-third • possible drivers include new spending priorities, higher perceived risks, etc • MENA production falls 3.4 mb/d by 2015 and 6.2 mb/d by 2020 • Consumers face a near-term rise in oil prices to $150/barrel • MENA earns more initially, but then less as market share is lost

  7. Golden prospects for natural gas Largest natural gas producers in 2035 Unconventional natural gas supplies 40% of the 1.7 tcm increase in global supply,but best practices are essential to successfully address environmental challenges Conventional Russia United States Unconventional China Iran Qatar Canada Algeria Australia India Norway 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 bcm

  8. Coal won the energy race in the first decade of the 21st century Growth in global energy demand, 2000‑2010 Coal accounted for nearly half of the increase in global energy use over the past decade,with the bulk of the growth coming from the power sector in emerging economies 1 600 Mtoe Nuclear 1 400 Renewables 1 200 1 000 Oil 800 600 Natural gas 400 200 0 Total non-coal Coal

  9. Asia: the arena of future coal trade Major coal net importers International coal markets & prices become increasingly sensitive to developments in Asia; India surpasses China as the biggest coal importer soon after 2020 400 Mtce Japan 300 European Union China 200 India 100 0 2009 2020 2035 2009 2020 2035

  10. Australia’s energy resources underpin its economy & rising prosperity in Asia • Australia will play a key role in meeting the rise in global energy demand • Consolidates position as world's largest exporter of hard coal • exports reach over 300 Mtce in 2020 • more efficient power plants & CCS could bolster prospects even further • LNG exports expand to 85 bcm in 2020 and 115 bcmin 2035, more than a four-fold increase on today • LNG export capacity catches up with that of Qatar • Coal & natural gas export revenues exceed $2 trillion through to 2035 • Key challenge is to reap the benefits of the resources boom while avoiding the potential pitfalls

  11. Global second thoughts on nuclear would have far-reaching consequences • “Low Nuclear Case” examines impact of nuclear component of future energy supply being cut in half • Gives a boost to renewables, but increases import bills, reduces diversity & makes it harder to combat climate change • By 2035, compared with the New Policies Scenario: • coal demand increases by twice Australia’s steam coal exports • natural gas demand increases by two-thirds Russia’s natural gas net exports • power- sector CO2 emissions increase by 6.2% • Biggest implications are for countries with limited energy resources that planned to rely on nuclear power

  12. The overall value of subsidiesto renewables is set to rise Renewable subsidies of $66 billion in 2010 (compared with $409 billion for fossil fuels), need to climb to $250 billion in 2035 as rising deployment outweighs improved competitiveness 250 Biofuels Electricity 200 Billion dollars (2010) 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

  13. Russia remains a cornerstone of the global energy economy Russian revenue from fossil fuel exports An increasing share of Russian exports go eastwards to Asia,providing Russia with diversity of markets and revenues 2010 2035 $255 billion $420 billion Other Other 17% 21% China2% European Union European Union China Other Europe 48% 20% 61% 16% Other Europe 15%

  14. Energy is at the heart ofthe climate challenge Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions in selected regions By 2035, cumulative CO2 emissions from today exceed three-quarters of the total since 1900, and China’s per-capita emissions match the OECD average 500 2010-2035 Gigatonnes 400 1900-2009 300 200 100 0 EuropeanUnion United States China India Japan

  15. The door to 2°C is closing, but will we be “locked-in” ? 45 6°C trajectory 40 35 CO2 emissions (gigatonnes) 30 2°C trajectory 25 Delay until 2017 20 Delay until 2015 15 Emissions from existing infrastructure 10 5 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Without further action, by 2017 all CO2 emissions permitted in the 450 Scenariowill be “locked-in” by existing power plants, factories, buildings, etc

  16. If we don’t change direction soon, we’ll end up where we’re heading • In a world full of uncertainty, one thing is sure: rising incomes & population will push energy needs higher • Oil supply diversity is diminishing, while new optionsare opening up for natural gas • Coal – the “forgotten fuel” – has underpinned growth, but its future will be shaped by uptake of efficient power plants & CCS • Power sector investment will become increasingly capital intensive with the rising share of renewables • Australia’s energy wealth is set to play a vital role, both domestically & internationally • Despite steps in the right direction, the door to 2°C is closing

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