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World Energy Outlook 2012

World Energy Outlook 2012. Washington DC, 27 November 2012. The context. Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency

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World Energy Outlook 2012

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  1. World Energy Outlook 2012 Washington DC, 27 November 2012

  2. The context • Foundations of global energy system shifting • Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries • Retreat from nuclear in some others • Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency • All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy • Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times) • Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist • Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA • CO2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain • Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity

  3. Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand 6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe 100% Non-OECD Rest of non-OECD Middle East 80% India China 60% OECD 40% 20% 1975 2010 2035 Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East

  4. A United States oil & gas transformation US oil and gas production mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 Conventional gas 10 Unconventional oil 5 Conventional oil 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States

  5. Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil exports Iraq oil production 9 mb/d 9 mb/d Other North 8 Asia Centre 8 South 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2012 2020 2035 2012 2020 2035 Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035;by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia

  6. Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export by destination mb/d 7 2000 2011 6 2035 5 4 3 2 1 China India Japan & Korea Europe United States By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America’s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade

  7. Natural gas: towards a globalised market Major global gas trade flows, 2010 Major global gas trade flows, 2035 Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms

  8. Different trends in oil & gasimport dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Japan Gas Imports 100% 2010 2035 80% European Union 60% 40% China 20% India United States 0% Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide

  9. A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, 2010-2035 Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 -1 000 0 1 000 TWh TWh The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity

  10. The multiple benefits of renewablescome at a cost Global renewable energy subsidies Billion $250 Biofuels: $1 200 billion 2011-2035 $200 $150 Electricity: 2012-2035 $100 $2 600 billion Existing capacity $50 $960 billion 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Renewable subsidies were $88 billion in 2011; over half the $4.8 trillion required to 2035 has been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets

  11. Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, 2035 cents/kWh 25 20 2011 OECD average 15 10 2011 Non-OECD average 5 China United States European Union Japan Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in theEuropean Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States

  12. Energy is becoming thirstier in theface of growing water constraints Global water use Water for energy 100% Biofuels Fossil fuels Other 80% Nuclear 60% 40% Power Coal 20% Energy 2010 2010 The energy sector’s water needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects

  13. Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario 100% Unrealised energy efficiency potential 80% Realised energy efficiency potential 60% 40% 20% Industry Transport Power generation Buildings Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

  14. The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world Total primary energy demand Mtoe 18 000 New PoliciesScenario 17 000 Coal 1 350 Mtce Oil 12.7 mb/d 16 000 Gas 680 bcm 15 000 Others 250 Mtoe Efficient World Scenario 14 000 13 000 12 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035; oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway

  15. Energy efficiency brings economic gains Energy expenditure in 2035 compared with 2010 Trillion $1.5 New Policies Scenario Additional in the New Policies Scenario $1.2 $0.9 $0.6 Efficient World Scenario $0.3 $0 -$0.3 China India European Union UnitedStates Japan In addition to cutting energy expenditures by an average of 20%, improved efficiency brings wider economic gains, particularly for India, China, the United States & Europe

  16. The Efficient World Scenario delays carbon lock-in 2017 2022 35 Gt 30 Other 2 °C trajectory 25 Transport Lock-in of infrastructure in New Policies Scenario in 2017 Lock-in of infrastructurein Efficient World Scenario in 2022 20 Room to manoeuvre Industry 15 10 Lock-in of existing infrastructure 5 Power generation 2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Energy efficiency can delay “lock-in” of CO2 emissions permitted under a 2 °C trajectory – which is set to happen in 2017 – until 2022, buying five extra years

  17. Foundations of energy system shifting • Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives • Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineglobal economic & geopolitical balances • Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets • As climate change slips off policy radar, the “lock-in” point moves closer & the costs of inaction rise • The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system

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