Arctic Climates and Environments: The 1ACE Project

1. Arctic Climates and Environments: The 1ACE Project 1ACE aims to understand natural and anthropogenic changes in the biosphere and climate of the Arctic and northern circumpolar regions, using a combination of modelling tools and observations that draws on expertise, data, equipment and infrastructure uniquely available at the WUN nodes.

2. Why focus on the Arctic ? • uniquely exposed to climate change because of powerful positive feedbacks between sea-surface conditions, ecosystems and the atmosphere. Only in the Arctic is it possible to examine all the factors involved in determining climate change Sea Ice Ice-albedo (ice-temperature) feedback [Positive] Ice dynamical feedback [Cooling] Vegetation Vegetation-albedo feedback (forest/tundra) [Positive] Polar-Mid Latitude biome shifts (forest/grassland) [Negative]

3. Why focus on the Arctic ? • Already experiencing rapid changes (e.g. vegetation, sea ice) NDVI 20-year Mean NDVI Change from 1980s to 1990s Wang and Overland (2003)

4. Why focus on the Arctic ? • Has experienced large and rapid changes in the recent geological past (e.g. vegetation change)

5. Why another Arctic initiative? • Existing organisations either set agendas internationally or fund nationally –there are no frameworks to support a coherent international research programme • Substantive progress in understanding the complex interelated climate systems active in the Arctic will require a breadth and depth of resources not present in a single country let alone a single university • Geographical and historical interests mean that expertise, data and infrastructure is distributed across many countries • IPY: International Polar Year • AC: Arctic Council • ISAC: International Arctic Science Committee • FARO: Forum of Arctic Research Operations • AOSB: Arctic Ocean Science Board • ACSYS: Arctic Climate System Study • CLiC: Climate and Cryosphere Project • ICARP: International Conference for Arctic Research Planning • ACIA: Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (AC + ISAC) • SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change • GLOBEC-ESSAS: Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics-Ecosystem Studies of Sun-Arctic Seas • CLIVAR- :Climate Variability and Predictability • AINA: Arctic Institute of North America • BEST: Bering Ecosystem Study • CEON: Circum-arctic Environmental Observatories Network • ARCSS • ARCSS-HARC: Human Dimensions of the Arctic System • ARCTIC-CHAMP: Pan-Arctic Community-wide Hydrological Analysis and Monitoring Program • ASOF: Arctic/Sub-arctic Ocean Fluxes programme

6. What distinguishes 1ACE ? • Not a programme or agenda-setting initiative → definite & concrete research project demanding interactions • Not limited involvement activity → Multi-national (particularly linking US-Europe-China, but with remit to involve the best) • Expertise → together the WUN nodes have the critical mass to carry out such a project → synergy

7. 1ACE Strategy • coherent multi- and inter-disciplinary programmes based in centres of excellence • Use IT mediated approaches to support sustained collaboration at a distance • Linking interdisciplinary academic communities across themes within foci • Particular benefits from bringing modellers and observationalists together • Bring together disparate information & resources located in many countries • incorporate modern process understanding • test in the past before applying to the future

8. Arctic Climates and Environments Modern observations process studies distribution maps time-series of key surface and atmosphere variables flux measurements Palaeo observations ice sheet extent/height vegetation patterns wetland extent/volume surface hydrology sediment transfers Modelling priorities clouds sea ice snow-veg interactions PFTs evapotranspiration fire and emissions wetlands sulphur cycle land hydrology → ← ↓ Simulations historical period palaeo future ↓ ↓ GOAL: Alternative futures and impacts GOAL: Understanding recent climate and environmental changes

9. Improving modelling capability. The ultimate goal of this stream is to produce a fully-coupled earth system model which simulates all the key biogeochemical cycles. In order to improve our ability to simulate high-latitude climates, there are a number of areas which should be prioritised. These include: Clouds Dynamic sea-ice Snow-vegetation interactions Testing simulated evapotranspiration against flux measurements Better representation of plant functional types (PFTs) in vegetation dynamics Fire and fire-related emissions Incorporation of wetland PFTs and simulation of wetland extent and dynamics Terrestrial emissions of trace gases & aerosols Cloud-chemistry interactions Sulphur cycle and production of DMS Improvement of land hydrology, both with respect to linkages with vegetation and land-ocean transfers of water and sediment

10. Observations of the Modern Environment Modern observations are required for two purposes, (a) guiding the development of model parameterisations and (b) model testing. In some cases, the requisite data could be obtained through remote-sensing. In other cases, information from individual field studies is required and, despite the wealth of data being collected, efforts will be required to synthesise these data. The main priorities for modern data collection are: Maps of vegetation, wetland extent, permafrost extent and fire incidence/extent based on remote-sensing Time-series of key surface and atmospheric variables Synthesis/analysis of existing flux measurements (including CO2 and CH4) from the arctic/boreal zone Process studies for key components, including sea-ice processes, marine boundary layer chemistry (including arctic haze), snowpack biophysics and biochemistry, controls on gas emissions from wetlands, arctic physiology, arctic ecology (including refugia and migration issues)

11. Organisational structure • Foci = research area that (potentially) cuts across streams • Within each focus, we will identify more specific research topics • Two types of research topic: Fast Track Initiative and Medium Track Initiative • FTI = concrete results achievable within 2-3 years (proof of concept that this collaboraion yields results) • MTI = research expected to advance the science over 3-10 yr framework • Each focus, each FTI and each MIT will have a coordinator, who will be responsible for development

12. Modern observations Modelling Palaeo-observations ESModelling of the Arctic STREAMS Land-ocean interactions Climate-chemistry interactions Climate-cryosphere interactions Climate-biosphere interactions Climates and Environments of Deep Time FOCI

13. Characteristics of an FTI, MTI • Fundamental challenge in Arctic science • Can be addressed by pooling resources and expertise across >2-3 WUN nodes • Will ultimately integrate with other 1ACE initiatives to form a coherent picture • Can identify a willing and enthusiastic coordinator who will take the lead in planning the science and funding activities

14. EXAMPLE: CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY FOCUS Coordinator Don Wuebbles UIUC FTI FTI Climate change and atmospheric chemistry MTI MTI MTI MTI

15. Focus: Climate-chemistry interactions • Proposed FTI: simulating emissions from snowpack • Proposed MTI: development of biospheric emissions schemes for coupling with atmospheric chemistry models • Proposed MTI: LGM methane drawdown (also feeds into palaeo-focus)

16. EXAMPLE: CLIMATE-CHEMISTRY FOCUS Coordinator Don Wuebbles UIUC FTI FTI: Snow emissions Climate change and atmospheric chemistry MIT: biospheric emissions MTI MTI MIT: LGM drawdown

17. FTI: Snowpack emissions modelling Coordinators Valdes (Bristol) Bristol Snowpack modelling Remote sensing Atmospheric chemistry Biospheric emissions Penn State Alley/Pollard Cryosphere Observations & modelling Snowpack emissions FTI External partner Essery (Aberystwyth) Oslo Ivar Isaksen Atmospheric chem modelling External partner Hadley Centre Other WUN node

18. Focus: Biosphere-climate interactions • Proposed FTI: palaeovegetation changes through last glacial-interglacial cycle (this also feeds into ESModelling through validation) • Proposed MTI: improved treatment of snow-covered vegetation in DGVMs/ESMs • Proposed MTI: veg dynamics & feedbacks

19. FTI: Palaeovegetation changes through the last glacial-interglacial cycle Coordinator Mary Edwards (Southampton) Madison Jack Williams Pollen data, ENA UIUC Feng Sheng Hu Arctic ecology Palaeovegetation FTI Seattle Linda Brubaker Pollen data, Alaska External partner Wyoming (Steve Jackson) Macrofossils, NAm Bristol Sandy Harrison Database & mapping External partner Oxford (Kathy Willis) Macrofossils, Eurasia Utrecht Andy Lotter Pollen data, EPD Other WUN nodes External partner USGS (Thompson) Macrofossils, NAm

20. Modern observations Modelling Palaeo-observations Steered by: Callaghan ESModelling of the Arctic STREAMS Oxygen Keeling Land-ocean interactions MTI: freshwater & THC Sheffiled lead ?? PalaeohosingSchlesinger MTI:Coastal ocean Snow Emissions Valdes Climate-chemistry interactions Wuebbles Biospheric emissions Prentice LGM drawdown Harrison IMP Payne Climate-cryosphere interactions Ice cap sensitivity (AICA) Wadham Palaeoveg Edwards Climate-biosphere interactions MTI: snow-veg feedback MTI: dynamics & feedbacks Climates & Environments of Deep Time Brinkhuis MTI:Deeptime maps Francis FOCI

21. How are we making this happen ? • Jan-April: ACCESS grid orvideo-conferences on FTI & MTI • Website to collate resources and provide virtual working environment • Seedcorn money being sought now for FTI activities • Kick-off meeting in May 2005 • Use of WUN GEP programme for faculty/student exchange • Dialogue with funders – public, foundation and corporate • Begin to raise profile through internal and external publicity

22. Planned virtual meetings • Thursday 6th January Mace Head FTI • Thursday 13th January Snow emissions FTI • Tuesday 1st February Planning Committee for Kick-off Meeting • Tuesday 8th February Palaeovegetation FTI • Thursday 10th February Focus on Climate-chemistry interactions • Thursday 24th February Focus on Deeptime • Thursday 10th March Palaeohosing MTI • Thursday 17th March Focus on climate-biosphere interactions • Thursday 31st March Focus on climate-cryosphere interactions • Thursday 14th April Focus on land-ocean interactions • Thursday 21st April Focus on Earth System modeling • Thursday 28th April Planning Committee for Kick-off Meeting