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Economic Framework for Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada

Explore rural restructuring, housing linkages, and economic activity clustering in small towns of Canada. Understand the impact on housing investments, employers, and lenders. Navigate through case studies of Port Clements and Gold River to comprehend change, challenges, and future opportunities in these communities.

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Economic Framework for Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada

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  1. Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town CanadaLaura Ryser1, Greg Halseth1 & David Bruce2 1University of Northern British Columbia2Mount Allison University

  2. Overview • Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages • Defining Rural and Small Town Places • Clustering Places by Economic Activity • Framework for Understanding Change • Case Studies • Port Clements, BC • Gold River, BC • Discussion

  3. Rural Restructuring and Housing • Housing investments based on projected future • Employers may face difficulty with housing shortages or lack of affordability • Lenders / insurers concerned about ability to recover losses on property in default

  4. Defining Rural and Small Town Places • Definitions link to why / what people are exploring in rural and small town places • Census Subdivisions (CSDs) • Relatively stable • Facilitate comparisons over time • No MIZ and Weak MIZ used • Places selected: • Population 50 - 4,999 • First Nations reserves excluded

  5. Distribution of Places by MIZ Designation & Population Group Population Group MIZ Code Total No MIZWeak MIZ 2,500-4,999 % within population group 3.7% 96.3% 134 50-2,499 % within population group 47.3% 52.7% 1,298 Total Count % within population group 43.2% 56.8% 1,432 Source: Derived from Rambeau, S. and K. Todd. 2000. Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

  6. Threshold: 25% of labour force employed in a sector or 25% age 65+ SIC=Standard Industrial Classification 1980 Economic sectors include: agricultural fishing forestry mining tourism manufacturing 1Dynamic services = transportation & storage, communication & utility, wholesale, finance, real estate & business 2Non-market services = government, education, health, and social services dynamic services1 non-market services2 retirement dual specialization non-specialized Clustering Places by Economic Activity

  7. Models of Community Development • Lucas (1971) • Construction • Recruitment • Transition • Maturity • Bradbury (1988) • Winding down • Closure • Halseth and Sullivan (2002) • Alternative futures

  8. Framework for Understanding Change in the Local Economy • Start-up • Growth • Plateau • Decline • Alternative Futures • Transform into another economic sector and grow • Transform and plateau at a similar level • Transform and decline • Function in same sector at a lower plateau • Decommission / closure

  9. Socio-economic Characteristics to Indicate Change in Community Development • Population • Household • Migration • Income • Labour Force Participation • Housing

  10. Summary of RST Population Change All Communities with 1991 Population 50-4,999, 1991-2001 Source: Statistics Canada 2001, 1991.

  11. Case Studies I • Purposeful sampling methodology • 11 case studies reflect the 11 sectors • Case studies drawn from database • Triangulation • Newspaper archives, reports, gov’t publications, community websites, etc.

  12. Case Studies II

  13. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline I

  14. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline II

  15. Forestry: Port Clements • Decline period: 1996-2001 • 1996: 44% employed in forestry • 2001: 33.3% employed in forestry • No MIZ status • 42 kms to Masset • 6 hour ferry ride to Prince Rupert

  16. Port Clements I: 1996-2001

  17. Port Clements II: 1996-2001

  18. Port Clements: Context for Change • Challenges • Isolation • Softwood Lumber Dispute • Crown land controlled by large corporations • Aboriginal land claims • Regionalization of services in Terrace

  19. Port Clements: Context for Change • Alternative Futures / Opportunities • Non-market service sector growing • Broadband Internet access • Off-shore oil and gas • Cinola mine site • Community forest

  20. Manufacturing: Gold River • Decline period: 1991-2001 • 1991: 47.1% employed in manufacturing • 2001: 2.7% employed in manufacturing • 2001: 28.9% employed in non-market services • Weak MIZ status • 90 kms from Campbell River

  21. Gold River I: 1991-2001

  22. Gold River II: 1991-2001

  23. Gold River: Context for Change • Challenges • Poor newsprint prices • High fibre, transportation, and energy costs • High bank interest • Increase in stumpage rates • Economic slump in Asia • Mill closure

  24. Gold River: Context for Change • Alternative Future / Opportunities • Commercial / tourism fishing re-opened in 1997 • Gold River Housing Corporation – sale in 1999 • Provincial funding to maintain services / ease burden of lost tax base • Epcor power plant

  25. Discussion I • Housing is an important commodity and service • Decisions must be taken with care and appropriate information • Mortgage insurance providers, investors, and policy makers need to look beyond the current state of the economy

  26. Discussion II • Framework to understand trajectory of economic development in RST places • 11 types of economic sectors • Socio-economic characteristics provide mechanism for tracking change • Case studies reasonably consistent with framework • Inconsistencies demonstrate that places are unique – context matters

  27. Community Development Institute (CDI) 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada V2N 4Z9 http://www.unbc.ca/cdi Dr. Greg Halseth, Acting Director Phone: (250) 960-5826 Fax: (250) 960-6533 Email: halseth@unbc.ca

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