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Overview

Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada Laura Ryser 1 , Greg Halseth 1 & David Bruce 2 1 University of Northern British Columbia 2 Mount Allison University. Overview. Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages

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Overview

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  1. Economic Development Framework for Interpreting Local Housing Markets in Small Town CanadaLaura Ryser1, Greg Halseth1 & David Bruce2 1University of Northern British Columbia2Mount Allison University

  2. Overview • Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages • Defining Rural and Small Town Places • Clustering Places by Economic Activity • Framework for Understanding Change • Case Studies • Port Clements, BC • Gold River, BC • Discussion

  3. Rural Restructuring and Housing • Housing investments based on projected future • Employers may face difficulty with housing shortages or lack of affordability • Lenders / insurers concerned about ability to recover losses on property in default

  4. Defining Rural and Small Town Places • Definitions link to why / what people are exploring in rural and small town places • Census Subdivisions (CSDs) • Relatively stable • Facilitate comparisons over time • No MIZ and Weak MIZ used • Places selected: • Population 50 - 4,999 • First Nations reserves excluded

  5. Distribution of Places by MIZ Designation & Population Group Population Group MIZ Code Total No MIZWeak MIZ 2,500-4,999 % within population group 3.7% 96.3% 134 50-2,499 % within population group 47.3% 52.7% 1,298 Total Count % within population group 43.2% 56.8% 1,432 Source: Derived from Rambeau, S. and K. Todd. 2000. Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

  6. Threshold: 25% of labour force employed in a sector or 25% age 65+ SIC=Standard Industrial Classification 1980 Economic sectors include: agricultural fishing forestry mining tourism manufacturing 1Dynamic services = transportation & storage, communication & utility, wholesale, finance, real estate & business 2Non-market services = government, education, health, and social services dynamic services1 non-market services2 retirement dual specialization non-specialized Clustering Places by Economic Activity

  7. Models of Community Development • Lucas (1971) • Construction • Recruitment • Transition • Maturity • Bradbury (1988) • Winding down • Closure • Halseth and Sullivan (2002) • Alternative futures

  8. Framework for Understanding Change in the Local Economy • Start-up • Growth • Plateau • Decline • Alternative Futures • Transform into another economic sector and grow • Transform and plateau at a similar level • Transform and decline • Function in same sector at a lower plateau • Decommission / closure

  9. Socio-economic Characteristics to Indicate Change in Community Development • Population • Household • Migration • Income • Labour Force Participation • Housing

  10. Summary of RST Population Change All Communities with 1991 Population 50-4,999, 1991-2001 Source: Statistics Canada 2001, 1991.

  11. Case Studies I • Purposeful sampling methodology • 11 case studies reflect the 11 sectors • Case studies drawn from database • Triangulation • Newspaper archives, reports, gov’t publications, community websites, etc.

  12. Case Studies II

  13. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline I

  14. Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline II

  15. Forestry: Port Clements • Decline period: 1996-2001 • 1996: 44% employed in forestry • 2001: 33.3% employed in forestry • No MIZ status • 42 kms to Masset • 6 hour ferry ride to Prince Rupert

  16. Port Clements I: 1996-2001

  17. Port Clements II: 1996-2001

  18. Port Clements: Context for Change • Challenges • Isolation • Softwood Lumber Dispute • Crown land controlled by large corporations • Aboriginal land claims • Regionalization of services in Terrace

  19. Port Clements: Context for Change • Alternative Futures / Opportunities • Non-market service sector growing • Broadband Internet access • Off-shore oil and gas • Cinola mine site • Community forest

  20. Manufacturing: Gold River • Decline period: 1991-2001 • 1991: 47.1% employed in manufacturing • 2001: 2.7% employed in manufacturing • 2001: 28.9% employed in non-market services • Weak MIZ status • 90 kms from Campbell River

  21. Gold River I: 1991-2001

  22. Gold River II: 1991-2001

  23. Gold River: Context for Change • Challenges • Poor newsprint prices • High fibre, transportation, and energy costs • High bank interest • Increase in stumpage rates • Economic slump in Asia • Mill closure

  24. Gold River: Context for Change • Alternative Future / Opportunities • Commercial / tourism fishing re-opened in 1997 • Gold River Housing Corporation – sale in 1999 • Provincial funding to maintain services / ease burden of lost tax base • Epcor power plant

  25. Discussion I • Housing is an important commodity and service • Decisions must be taken with care and appropriate information • Mortgage insurance providers, investors, and policy makers need to look beyond the current state of the economy

  26. Discussion II • Framework to understand trajectory of economic development in RST places • 11 types of economic sectors • Socio-economic characteristics provide mechanism for tracking change • Case studies reasonably consistent with framework • Inconsistencies demonstrate that places are unique – context matters

  27. Community Development Institute (CDI) 3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada V2N 4Z9 http://www.unbc.ca/cdi Dr. Greg Halseth, Acting Director Phone: (250) 960-5826 Fax: (250) 960-6533 Email: halseth@unbc.ca

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