US Hegemony and Military Primacy

1. US Hegemony and Military Primacy Andres Gannon, UC Berkeley

2. Section 1 – What is it?

3. Definition • Hegemony is a condition of dominance in the international system • Hegemony is not a strategy, it is a goal or the result of other strategies

4. Hegemony in international relations • Goal of the United States and all other powers is hegemony • Regional hegemonshave always existed • Arguable about whether or not there has ever been a global hegemony

5. How does America do it? • Example of US Hegemony

6. Section 2 – Determinants of Hegemony

7. Economic Power • The productive capacity of a state or territory that it rules over • What can a state make? • How efficiently can it do it?

8. Financial Power • Distinct from economic power because it is about how much money a government can raise and how it manages its funds • US has had strong financial and economic power since 1919 due to victory in both world wars • The US was able to make a lot of equipment and lend huge amounts of money to our allies

9. Soft Power • The cultural appeal of a country • Intangible reputation • How attractive values are to others • Respect for their way of life

10. Military Power • The ability to impose your will onto others • It allows us to quickly defeat adversaries

11. Relationship between determinants

12. Relationship between determinants • No one factor can maintain hegemony • Soviet Union 1980

13. Section 3 – US National Security Strategy

14. U.S. National Security Strategy

15. Grand Strategy • Plan to direct all assets at the disposal of our government towards the broadest ends of American interest • Homeland security • International peace • Prevention of global wars • Democracy • Economic prosperity • Human rights

16. Military Strategy • Military portion of grand strategy • Where are our military assets deployed

17. Operations • Only relevant in war-time • Describes how we fight a series of battles (a campaign) to fulfill the plans laid down • Goal of operations is to fulfill strategic goals and military strategy

18. Tactical • Methods that units use to achieve specific battle field tasks • Pinning an enemy by flanking them on both sides • Guerilla warfare tactic • Capturing strategic terrain (hill)

19. Doctrine • Rules we create to govern the use of force and methods we use to fight • Counterinsurgency • Counterterrorism • The way we implement a doctrine in a specific country is a strategy

20. World War II Example

21. Military strategy on the topic • Most affirmatives occur at the level of military strategy • How are goals accomplished with the military in general • Withdrawing all forces from one country changes military strategy

22. Section 4 –Key Terms, Ideas, and People

23. Synonyms • Hegemony • Primacy • Leadership • Global cop • Pax Americana • Unipolarity • Unilateralism • Military dominance • Global superiority

24. Key Authors • Khalilzad, Stillgood • Robert Kagan • Lieber and Press • Charles Krauthammer • Thayer • Brooks and Wohlforth • Joseph Nye • Colin Gray • Mandelbaum • Max Boot

25. Key Sources • Carnegie Endowment • Council on Foreign Relations • Heritage Foundation

26. Polarity • Unipolarity – only one great power exists • Bipolarity – two powerful states that dominate all the others • Multipolarity – many states of equivalent power

27. “-lateralism” • Unilateralism – acting alone without making policies dependent on what allies think • Multilateralism – acting with others and engaging in cooperation and consultation • Bilateralism – acting or cooperating with another power, often of equal power

28. Balancing • Offshore Balancing – Withdrawing our foreign commitments and maintaining our military and international presence from the mainland • Counterbalancing – When countries line up against the United States so that their combined power matched or exceeds that of the hegemon • Softbalancing – diplomatic friction against a hegemon when countries are hesitant to cooperate or support hegemonic military action

29. Section 5 – Sustainability

30. Key Factors • Economics • Forward deployment, army, navy, tech, free riders • Counter-balancing • Adversaries who don’t like taking orders • Decadence • Spirit of sacrifice causes power • 22,000 Central Pacific v 4,000 Iraq • 100,000 British

31. Key Factors • Overstretch • Forces get spread thin • Relative Decline • Rise of other challengers causes multipolarity • Relative power • History • Rome, Sparta, Athens, Persia, Greece, Aztecs, Mayans, Chinese, Mongols, Spanish…US?

32. The Case for Sustainability • American exceptionalism • Democratic • Western hemisphere • No counterbalancing • No direct colonization • Geography • Relative dominance • Spend more on defense than next 10-25 countries • Economy is third globally • Fight 3 wars at a time

33. The Case for Sustainability • Absence of peer competitors • China can’t win wars • Russia is poor and can’t win wars either • Europe is internally divided and lazy • Better than alternatives • China is hated • Russia is crazy

34. Why Sustainability Matters • If decline can be avoided (if hegemony is sustainable) then it is easier to win that it is desirable • If decline is inevitable, strategies to maintain it may be bad and we should shift now to ensure a stable and peaceful transition

35. Section 5 – Desirability

36. Great Power Wars • Smaller powers have an incentive to cooperate with a greater power because the US can punish them military • Multipolar systems are problematic because the margins of power between actors is low • Europe 1914

37. Rise of Hostile Competitors • Strong US can deter others from even trying to upset the international system

38. Regional Wars • US can intervene in wars between weaker states • Bosnia, 1994 • Kosovo, 1998 • Gulf War, 1991 • North Korea, TBA • India-Pakistan, TBA • China-Taiwan, TBA • Israel-Iran, TBA

39. Cooperation • Bandwagoning – when smaller states follow the lead of a hegemon and support them rather than counterbalancing • Encourages cooperation on economic, environmental, and health issues

40. Transition Wars • Regardless of whether hegemony is good or bad, decline should be avoided because the transition to a new system will be violent • Rising powers would lash out to undermine US standing • US would lash out to prevent a rising power from overwhelming us

41. Power Vacuum • No one else can fill in causing global fragmentation (Dark Ages) • Partial fill in causes spheres of influence • China dominates East Asia • Russia reabsorbs former Soviet states

42. Section 6 – Undesirability

43. Multipolarity Solves • More stable, aggressive posture encourages hostility when power erodes • Spheres of influence good

44. Terrorism • Causes resentment in the Middle East • Occupation • Hostility

45. Proliferation • Causes asymetrical strategies to compete with us since they can’t compete conventionally • Nuclear weapons pack a hard punch

46. Counter-balancing • Others band together against the US which can escalate regional wars and disputes • Russia-China

47. Intervention • Hegemony makes us more likely to intervene in conflicts where we don’t belong • Vietnam • Iraq

48. Section 7 - Conclusion

49. Key Arguments • Sustainability • Resentment inevitable • Reintervention • Transition • Fill in • Balancing