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Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change

Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change. Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation.

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Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change

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  1. Modeling and Measuring the Process and Consequences of Land Use Change Supported by the Hudson River Foundation and National Science Foundation

  2. Modeling and Measuring the Process andConsequences of Land Use ChangeJon Erickson, Caroline HermansUniversity of VermontKarin Limburg, Karen Stainbrook, Bongghi HongSUNY College of Environmental Science and ForestryJohn Gowdy, Audra Nowosielski, John PolimeniRensselaer Polytechnic InstituteKatherine DanielsNew York Planning FederationDavid BurnsDutchess County Environmental Management CouncilEileen SassmanWappinger Creek Watershed Intermunicipal Council

  3. FEEDBACK LOOPS (marginal, and potentially episodic) Chlorides Incremental Economic Change Incremental Land-Use Change Incremental Watershed Health Decline OUTSIDE WORLD The Tyranny of Small Decisions School Quality Traffic Congestion Energy Dependence Social Networks Community Services

  4. FEEDBACK LOOPS Biophysical $ Watershed Health Economic Structure and Change Land-Use and Demographic Change PARTICIPATORY PLANNING for BIO-REGIONAL POLICY OUTSIDE WORLD Out from Under the Tyranny Land Use Society Community Economy Business Households

  5. Biophysical Land Use Society Community Economy Business HouseH Individuals Economic Structure and Change Land-Use and Demographic Change Watershed Health from Models to Mayhem

  6. HOUSEHOLDS GOVERMENT Public Services Private Goods & Services Consumption Goods Labor INDUSTRY Exports Depreciation OUTSIDE WORLD Imports Investment CAPITAL ECONOMIC CHANGE • County-Wide Workshop: • 1. Semi-Conductor Industry • Suburbanization • Transformation of • Agriculture • 4. Commuting

  7. LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Past Change • Satellite maps • Ortho photos • Land use interpret. • Tax parcels • Building permits

  8. Change Detection

  9. Pleasant Valley

  10. 1991 Stanford 2001

  11. 1991 East Fishkill 2001

  12. 1991 La Grange 2001

  13. Ortho Photo Area of Detail: LaGrange Poughkeepsie border

  14. “Ground” Truth with Ortho. Photos

  15. Poughkeepsie

  16. Wappinger

  17. Pleasant Valley

  18. Stanford

  19. VACANT PARCELS Census by Block, Tract, Town, Zip . . . LAND USE AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE • Future Change • Census Variables: Population • and Income growth • Tax Parcel Variables: Use Code, • Assessed Value, Acreage • Spatial Variables: Distance to • Central Business District • Biophysical Constraints • Slope, Soils, Wetlands • Social Constraints • Zoning • Ag. land management • Riparian management • Housing preferences

  20. Household Income Housing Demand $ Social Constraints Residential Development Land Use Interpretation Economic Scenario

  21. CURRENT SCENARIO Impervious Surface Estimates

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