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Energy Conversion Analysis: Progress Report and Portfolio Potential

This update outlines the progress made since September, detailing a database of electric and natural gas systems for space conditioning and water heating. It includes various system types, dwelling and foundation types, gas access levels, input data for resource modeling, cost analysis, energy consumption patterns, and market segment potentials. The report highlights the regional technical potential for conversion and the roadmap for leveraging data in the Regional Portfolio Model for effective decision-making. The focus is on analyzing switching potentials, market segments, and aligning measures to optimize energy efficiency. The latest DUG inputs are available for review, with upcoming steps involving cost conversion and cross-walking measures for accurate regional modeling.

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Energy Conversion Analysis: Progress Report and Portfolio Potential

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  1. Update on Direct Use of Natural Gas Analysis November 2, 2010

  2. Progress Since September • Created data base of all possible existing electric and natural gas space conditioning and water heating system combinations • 5 space conditioning system types • 5 water heating system types (two tank sizes) • 2 dwelling types (SF & MF) • 2 foundation types for SF (basement/non-basement • 3 levels of gas access (existing, extension from street & main and street extension) • 95 Combinations

  3. Input Data Base for Resource Portfolio Model • 95 - “existing conditions” • Number of existing regional households assigned to each “existing condition” using PNRES92 and American Community Survey data • 1470 - possible combinations of “existing conditions” and “replacement/conversion conditions.” Each of 1470 combinations assigned • Cost (capital, O&M, gas access) • Energy use by peak and off peak period • Regional technical “conversion potential” calculated for based on space heating system market shares from PNRES92 and fuel shares from American Community Survey (2009) • Preparing data for use in Regional Portfolio Model

  4. Summary of Completed Analysis 33 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional electric “switching” potential 34 of the 95 “market segments” account for 95% of the regional gas “switching” potential 3 of the 95 possible “market segments” have no “units” Latest version of DUG inputs available for review at: http://www.nwcouncil.org/dropbox/RevisedDUG_HVACDWH_CostUseData_103010.zip

  5. Next Steps Convert capital and operation and maintenance cost to real levelized cost for use in Regional Portfolio Model (RPM) Run RPM Create cross-walk between DUG measures and conservation supply curves to remove pontential for double counting (i.e., if fuel conversion occurs, use of HVAC efficiency upgrades is no longer an “alternative”

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