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Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas

Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas. Statement of Work. Background: 1994 Study. Goal: Analyze the economic efficiency of converting to gas Method Looked at 5 market segments Conversion of electric water heat to gas where gas is already used for space heating

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Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas

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  1. Analysis of the Direct Use of Natural Gas Statement of Work

  2. Background: 1994 Study • Goal: Analyze the economic efficiency of converting to gas Method • Looked at 5 market segments • Conversion of electric water heat to gas where gas is already used for space heating • Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required • Conversion of an electric forced-air furnace and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and gas service connection are required • Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where only a gas service connection is required • Conversion of electric zonal space heat and electric water heat to gas where both a gas main extension and a gas service connection are required • Monte Carlo Analysis

  3. Background: 1994 Study Methodology

  4. Background: 1994 Study Results

  5. Project Goals • Repeat the 1994 Study with current information • Add Multifamily and New Construction • Create the supply curve inputs to the Council’s portfolio model for the direct use of gas as a resource

  6. Project Overview: Market Segments

  7. Project Overview: Tasks • Economic Analysis – Monte Carlo simulation • Gather and analyze new data for inputs • Output Distributions: • NPV of cost • Electric energy savings • mills/kWh • Analyze Cost-effective portions of each market segment • Market Potential Analysis • Gather and analyze data on gas conversions, fuel choice in new homes, and outside influences on both • Inputs for Portfolio Model • Report & Presentation

  8. Deliverables & Timeline • 3 months • Council Portfolio Model Inputs • Draft Report • Presentation to RTF • 5 months • Final Report

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