1 / 54

Analysing Historical Performance

Analysing Historical Performance. Steps in Analysing Historical Performance. Reorganise the financial statements to reflect economic, instead of accounting, performance.

dawn
Télécharger la présentation

Analysing Historical Performance

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Analysing Historical Performance

  2. Steps in Analysing Historical Performance • Reorganise the financial statements to reflect economic, instead of accounting, performance. • Measure and analyse the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) and economic profit to evaluate the company’s ability to create value • Break down revenue growth into four components: organic revenue growth, currency effects, acquisitions and accounting changes • Assess the company’s financial health and capital structure to determine whether it has the financial resources to conduct business and make short-and long-term investments

  3. Reorganising The Accounting Statements

  4. Reorganising The Accounting Statements: Key Concepts • Separate operating performance from non-operating items and the financing obtained to support the business. • ROIC and Free Cash Flow (FCF) are independent of leverage and focus solely on the operating performance of the business.

  5. Invested Capital: Key Concepts • OA +NOA = OL + (D +DE) + (E + EE) • OA = Operating assets • NOA = Non-operating assets • OL = Operating liabilities • D = Debt • DE = Debt equivalent • E = Equity • EE =Equity equivalents

  6. Invested Capital: Key Concepts (Contd.) • Invested Capital +NOA = Total Funds Invested = (D+DE) + (E + EE) • Invested capital = OA – OL

  7. Invested Capital: Key Concepts (Contd.) • ACCOUNTANT’S BALANCE SHEET

  8. Invested Capital: Key Concepts (Contd.) • INVESTED CAPITAL

  9. Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT): Key Concepts • Interest is not subtracted from operating profit. • It is considered a payment to company’s financial investors. • Exclude any non-operating income, gains, or losses generated from assets excluded from invested capital. • Effects of interest expense and non-operating income are removed from taxes. • Start with reported taxes, add back the tax shield caused by interest expense, and remove taxes paid for non-operating income.

  10. Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT): Key Concepts • Model all financing cost (including interest and tax shield) in the cost of capital. • Taxes on non-operating income should be netted against operating income.

  11. Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT): Key Concepts • ACCOUNTANT’S INCOME STATEMENT

  12. Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes (NOPLAT): Key Concepts • NOPLAT

  13. Return on Invested Capital • ROIC = (NOPLAT/Invested Capital) • ROIC is used to measure how the company’s core operating performance has changed and how the company compares with its competitors, without the effects of financial structure and non-operating items distorting the analysis.

  14. Free Cash Flow: Key Concepts • FCF = NOPLAT +Non-Cash Expenses – Investments in Invested Capital • Cash flow from non-operating assets should be evaluated separately from core operations

  15. Free Cash Flow: Key Concepts (Contd.) • ACCOUNTANT’S CASH FLOW

  16. Free Cash Flow: Key Concepts (Contd.) • FREE CASH FLOW

  17. Reorganising The Accounting Statements: In Practice

  18. Operating Working Capital • Specifically excess cash and marketable securities are excluded. • Excess cash represents temporary imbalances in the company’s cash position. • Operating liabilities should not be considered as a form of financing. • Assumption that operating liabilities are a form of financing is inconsistent with the definition of NOPLAT.

  19. Net Property Plant and Equipment • The book value of net property, plant and equipment is always included in the operating assets.

  20. Acquired Intangibles and Goodwill • Adjust reported goodwill upwards to recapture historical amortisation and impairments. • To maintain consistency, amortisation and impairments are not deducted from revenues to determine NOPLAT. • An unrecorded goodwill should be added to recorded goodwill.

  21. Hidden Assets and Their Respective Financing • Operating lease • Expensed investments: advertising, and research and development

  22. Non-Operating Assets • Excess cash and marketable securities. • To asses the minimum cash needed to support operations, look for a minimum clustering of cash to revenue across the industry. • Illiquid investments, non-consolidated subsidiaries and other equity investments. • Pre-paid and intangible pension assets

  23. Debt Equivalent • Unfunded retirement liabilities • Operating lease • Reserves for plan decommissioning • Reserve for restructuring

  24. Equity Equivalent • Deferred tax liability • To be consistent use cash taxes to compute NOPLAT

  25. NOPLAT: In Practice

  26. NOPLAT Calculation • Earnings before interest, tax, and amortisation of goodwill (EBITA) is the starting point • Exclude non-operating incomes, gains and losses • Adjust income for hidden assets • Consider operating cash taxes on EBITA • Use marginal tax rate to eliminate tax effect • Use cash taxes actually paid • Subtracting the increase in deferred taxes lead to cash taxes • Reconcile net income to NOPLAT to ensure that the reorganisation is complete

  27. Free Cash Flow In Practice

  28. Gross Cash Flow • It represents the cash available for investment and investor payout, without having to sell non-operating assets or raise additional capital. • Gross cash flow has two components: NOPLAT and Non-cash operating expenses. • The two most common non-operating expenses are depreciation and employee stock option. • ESOPs represent value being transferred from shareholders to company employees. • If ESOPs are added back to NOPLAT, those must be valued separately. • If they are not added back, there is no need to value them separately.

  29. Gross Investment • Change in operating working capital • Net capital expenditure • It is estimated by taking the change in the net PP&E plus depreciation. • Change in the gross PP&E should not be considered as gross investment because when assets are retired gross PP&E is reduced without any cash flow implication. • Change in capitalised operating leases

  30. Gross Investment (Contd.) • Investment in acquired intangibles and goodwill • For acquired intangible assets, where cumulative amortisation has been added back, investment is estimated by computing the change in net acquired intangibles. • For intangibles that are being amortised, the method that is being used for estimating net investment in PP&E is used. • Change in other long-term operating assets, net of long-term liabilities. • Non-cash increase should be adjusted (e.g. exchange difference, and change in fair value)

  31. Reinvestment Ratio • Reinvestment ratio = Gross investment/Gross cash flow • If the ratio is rising without a corresponding increase in growth, examine: • Whether the company’s investments are taking longer to blossom than expected; or • Whether the company is adding capital in efficiently

  32. Analysing Return on Invested Capital

  33. ROIC • ROIC = NOPLAT/Average Invested Capital • When ROIC is used to measure historical performance for company’s shareholders, ROIC should be measured with goodwill. • ROIC excluding goodwill measures the company’s internal performance and is useful for comparing operating performance across companies and for analysing trends.

  34. Economic Profit • Economic profit = Invested capital × (ROIC – WACC) • Invested capital is measured at the beginning of the year. • Economic profit measures the one-year performance on historical book value. • The change in market value measures changing expectations about future economic profits.

  35. Decomposing ROIC • ROIC = • (1 – Cash tax rate) × (EBITA/Revenues) × (Revenues/ Average invested capital)

  36. Decomposing ROIC (Contd.) • Components of ROIC

  37. Analysis of ROIC • Compare historical value drivers with drivers of other companies in the same industry • What are the sources of competitive advantage? • Is the competitive advantage sustainable?

  38. Line Item Analysis • Convert every line item to some type of ratio, for example: • Operating ratios • Each line item in the balance sheet as a percentage of revenue

  39. Non-Financial Ratios • If, available, analyse the operating data. • By evaluating operating drivers, one can better assess the sustainability of financial spreads among competitors. • Example: Airlines industry • (Labour expense/Revenue) = • (Labour expense/Total employees) × • (Total employees/Available seat miles flown ) × • (Available seat miles flown /Revenue)

  40. Analysing Revenue Growth

  41. Growth • Value of a company is driven by ROIC, WACC and growth • Growth is defined as growth in cash flows • Assuming profit margins and reinvestment rates stabilise to a long-term level, long-term growth in cash flows will be directly ties to long-term growth in revenues. • By analysing historical revenue growth, one can assess the potential for growth going forward.

  42. Revenue Growth Analysis • IBM: Revenue Growth analysis (Per cent) [Ref: Valuation Mc Kinsey Exhibit 7.16]

  43. Currency Effects • Revenues earned in different currencies are translated in the reporting currency. • Reported revenue is affected by the weakening or strengthening o currencies against the reporting currency during the reporting period. • Thus a rise in revenue may not reflect increased pricing power or greater quantities sold, but just a depreciation of the company’s home currency.

  44. Decomposing Revenue Growth • Revenues = (Revenue/Unit) × Units • Revenue per unit does not represent the price • If revenue per unit is rising, the change could be due to rising prices or due to the change in the product mix from low-priced to high-priced items

  45. Decomposing Revenue Growth • Revenue Growth Analysis: Retail Chain (Per cent) (Ref: Valuation, McKinsey, Exhibit 7.19

  46. Decomposing Revenue Growth (Contd.) • New store development is an investment choice, where as same-store sales growth reflects store-by-store operating performance. • New stores require large capital investments, where as comparable (that is, year-to-year sale store sales) requires little incremental capital. • Higher revenue and less capital leads to higher ROIC

  47. Credit Health And Capital Structure

  48. Coverage: Ability to Meet Short Term Obligations • Interest coverage ratio • EBIT/Interest or EBIDTA/Interest • (EBITA/Interest) measures the company’s ability to repay interest without having to cut expenditures intended to replace depreciating equipment. • EBITDAR/(Interest + Rental Expense) • Important for companies engaged in industries like retailing business

  49. Leverage • ROE = ROIC + [ROIC – (1 – T) kd] × (D/E) • ROE is a direct function of its ROIC, its spread of ROIC over its after-tax cost of debt, and book-based debt-equity ratio • To assess leverage, measure company’s (market) debt-to-equity ratio over time and against peers.

  50. General Consideration for Historical Analysis

More Related