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SPACE DATA PROCESSING : FOREST FIRES AND HUMAN HEALTH

SPACE DATA PROCESSING : FOREST FIRES AND HUMAN HEALTH. B ring together three advanced but separate technologies: R EMOTE SENSING OF FOREST FIRES H EALTH RISK ASSESSMENT INTERNET. Moscow Russia Space Research Institute Boris Balter Maria Stalnaya Victor Egorov. CONTENTS.

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SPACE DATA PROCESSING : FOREST FIRES AND HUMAN HEALTH

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  1. SPACE DATA PROCESSING: FOREST FIRESAND HUMANHEALTH • Bring together three advanced but separate technologies: • REMOTE SENSING OF FOREST FIRES • HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT • INTERNET Moscow Russia Space Research Institute Boris Balter Maria Stalnaya Victor Egorov

  2. CONTENTS FROM EHIPS EXPERIENCE TO GLOBAL P2P PROJECT HEALTH RISK: EHIPS APPROACH FIRES: RISK SEEN FROM SPACE P2P: RISK INFO FOR/FROM ALL CYCLING: RISK MANAGEMENT GLOBAL CHANGE

  3. RISK ASSESSMENT DATAFLOW • INPUTDATA: • SOURCE EMISSION • PLUME-DEFINING PARAMETERS • METEOROLOGY • POPULATION EXPOSURE SCENARIOS • POLLUTANT TOXICITIES • PERSONAL SENSITIVITIES • OUTPUTDATA: • RISK UNFOLDING BY: • COHORTS (RISK GROUPS) • TIME (FORECAST) • SPACE (MAPPING)

  4. RISK ASSESSMENT LOGIC

  5. EHIPS ENVIRONMENTALHEALTHINFORMATIONPROCESSINGSYSTEM NOW: USED FOR INDUSTRIAL POLLUTION IN CITIES CAN BE: USED FOR HEALTH EFFECTS OF FOREST FIRES NOW: WORKS IN THE HANDS OF EXPERTS ONLY CAN: EMBED EXPERTISE INTO PROCESSING PIPELINE

  6. EHIPS: INFORMATION FLOWS

  7. EHIPS: RESEARCH TOOL FOR RISK • FEATURES • EXPERT MODE SETS PARAMS FOR PIPELINE PROCESSING • RISK ASSESSMENT CONTINUED TO HEALTH OUTCOMES • ALTERNATIVE MODELS FOR POLLUTANT DISPERSION • FLEXIBLE MODELS FOR EXPOSURE SCENARIO • HARMONIZING MODELED AND OBSERVED VALUES • MULTI-CYCLE, NOT SINGLE CALCULATION www.iki.rssi.ru/ehips/welcome.htm

  8. HARMONIZE MODEL & OBSERVED Model Data 1-year series raw Station 1 Station 2 2-day series Fit good for 1 station only Data Model

  9. FIRE: USE MODEL LESSONS LEARNED MODELLED CONCENTRATIONS FIT DATA ON THE AVERAGE ONLY, NOT IN SHORT-TIME EVENTS GAUSSIAN DISPERSION MODELS INSUFFICIENT, MESOSCALE MODELS ARE NEEDED MAIN SOURCE OF ERROR IS PLUME NOT SOURCE (SOLUTION: DIRECT OBSERVATION OF PLUMES)

  10. FIRE: EHIPS LOGIC+SPACE DATA Model Data

  11. SPACE-FED FEHIPS: DATAFLOW ADDING NEW INPUTS: REMOTE SENSING DATA HUBS: HUGE FIRES METEO DATA HUBS: VERTICAL PROFILES GIS DATA STORES: TERRAIN, POPULATION INDIVIDUALS: EXPOSURE SCENARIOS INDIVIDUALS: HEALTH EFFECT FEEDBACK GETTING NEW OUTPUTS: SELF-CORRECTING MODEL FORECASTS HEALTH HAZARD SPINOFF TO FIRE CONTROL LOCKED-IN MONITORING-CONTROL CYCLES

  12. FIRE EHIPS-BASED CYCLES Cycles EHIPS cycle Fire control Behavior control

  13. P2P • THREE TIERS OF THE SYSTEM • Remote detection and classification of forest fires (FMS) • Assessment of health risk from air pollution by smoke plume (EHIPS) • 3) Information exchange in peer-to-peer networks (P2P)

  14. CENTRALIZED vs. DISTRIBUTED

  15. P2P: INFORMATION FEEDBACKS INTELLECTUAL CENTER (I-CENTER) COORDINATES ALL FEEDBACK CYCLES: INSTITUTIONAL P2P NODES FEED WITH FIRE DATA FROM FMS AND PROVIDE RISK ESTIMATES IN RETURN INDIVIDUALS PROVIDE EXPOSURE / HEALTH INFORMATION TO GET THEIR OWN RISK FROM CONCENTRATIONS INDIVIDUALS INDIRECTLY INDICATE TO THE SYSTEM THE EFFECTIVENSS OF BEHAVIOR CONTROL

  16. EHIPS-BASED P2P SYSTEM Centralized information Decentralized information Network nodes Hardware Software Peer-to-peer operations

  17. OPTIMAL CONTROL ASSESSMENT  MANAGEMENT RISK = OPTIMAL CONTROL OBSERVATION  CONTROLLING BENEFITS OF USING OPTIMAL CONTROL ALGORITHMS TRACKING THE EFFECT OF BEHAVIOR ADVICE MAKING EXPLICIT THE CRITERIA OF SUCCESS QUANTIFYNG THE VALUE OF INFORMATION

  18. I-CENTER: MEDIATOR HUMANS Criteria Scenarios I-CENTER Monitoring Control NATURE

  19. DISTRIBUTING THE I-CENTER I-CENTER DELEGATES THE OPTIMAL CONTROL ‘IN THE SMALL’ TO ELEMENTARY CYCLES IN P2P DISTRIBUTED OPTIMAL CONTROL IS AS (OR MORE) EFFECTIVE AS THE CENTRALIZED ELEMENTARY CYCLE IS BUILT UPON PREDICTOR-CORRECTOR ALGORITHMS BUILT INTO EHIPS I-CENTER USES MORE COMPLICATED DUAL CONTROL ALGORITHMS FOR GLOBAL P2P-FMS COOPERATION

  20. NETWORK OF FEEDBACK CYCLES

  21. GLOBAL HEALTH: THE CORE OF SUSTAINABILITY HEALTH INVOLVES ALL SOCIETAL FACTORS HEALTH: A ‘THERMOMETER’ FOR MONITORING GLOBAL CHANGE P2P HEALTH NETWORK: PART OF DYNAMIC BALANCE NETWORK FOR EARTH FEEDBACK AND OPTIMAL CONTROL EMBEDDED INTO P2P NETWORK

  22. GLOBAL P2P CONFIGURATION IC EHIPS FMS Health data ___ P2P lines ___ FMS lines

  23. GLOBAL CHANGE: A P2P ANSWER WHAT IS COMMON FIRES – AN IMPORTANT LARGE-SCALE TEST LESSONS FROM FIRES USABLE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE WHAT CAN MAKE DIFFERENCE UNCONTROLLABLE SOURCES - THEN BEHAVIOR CONTROL CYCLE RUNS ONLY SOURCES CONTROLLABLE INDIVIDUALLY - THAT’S THE ‘MISSING LINK’ OF FIRE-ORIENTED P2P SOURCES DISTRIBUTED – USE P2P NETWORK ONLY

  24. TIMELINE EHIPS FIRE EHIPS I- CENTER HEALTH P2P GLOBAL P2P

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